More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Sophie Meunier

GET UPDATES FROM Sophie Meunier
 

China As Savior or Predator in Europe?

Posted: 11/03/11 05:14 PM ET

What do Volvo, the port of the Piraeus, and the Château Viaud vineyard and winery in Bordeaux have in common with Spanish debt and bonds issued by the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)? They are all owned by Chinese investors.

In addition to the massive amounts of European sovereign debt and portfolio assets already in Chinese hands, private and state-owned Chinese companies have embarked on a shopping spree in Europe over the past four years. Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) is still minute compared to other sources of FDI in Europe -- a mere 0.2% of all foreign investment stock in Europe according to recent calculations by the Rhodium Group. But Chinese direct investment is already present in all 27 European Union member states and will likely continue to grow as Chinese firms are encouraged to go abroad, pushed by their own government and incentivized by their own bottom line.

Will Chinese direct investment transform the political economy of Europe, and, if so, is this a real cause of concern for Europeans? Could Chinese investment threaten European unity?

This is a novel situation for European countries more accustomed to investing in emerging, problematic economies than being treated like one of them. Throughout the 20th century, direct investment flowed almost exclusively from developed to developing economies. Europe and the United States were, and still are, the largest investors worldwide and the largest stakeholders in each others' economies. However, outward direct investment originating in developing countries exploded in the past decade, mainly in the direction of other emerging economies, such as India investing in Brazil or China in Africa. A much more recent phenomenon is that emerging countries, chief among them China, are now starting to invest in developed countries. The combination of the global financial crisis, massive currency reserves accumulated by China, and the sovereign debt crises in Europe has turned China into a potential savior perhaps -- but also a potential predator for the embattled European economies.

The savior narrative comes from China seemingly dropping "helicopter money" in national economies that have few alternative prospects of cash influx. Swedish automaker Saab just won a reprieve after two Chinese carmakers agreed to buy the company hours before a court could have forced its factories to close forever. Klaus Regling, head of the EFSF, went to Beijing as soon as the European rescue package was put together, begging for Chinese investment in the fund.

On the other hand, China has also been portrayed in the media and in some political rhetoric as a predator. In this scenario, it begins by preying on the weaker EU countries before insidiously penetrating the rich European economies, using sovereign debt purchases and direct investment as part of its master plan to take over the world. Respected magazines all over Europe have used on their cover pages menacing images of fiery dragons spewing banknotes or contemporary Maos with imperialistic designs on the continent.

In any case, whether China is seen as a deus ex machina or a devil to whom weak European economies have sold their souls, the increasing willingness of Chinese entities to invest in Europe, directly and indirectly, raises a multiplicity of unanswered political questions. Will it lead to European dependency and Chinese leverage? Does Chinese investment come with strings attached, and can it act as a Trojan Horse affecting European norms and policies, from labor rights to the environment? Are there security implications to Chinese investment, especially when it comes to potential technology transfers?

European policymakers and publics are for the moment ambiguous towards this unprecedented situation. Opinion polls show that Europeans are split when it comes to viewing China as an opportunity or a threat. Of individuals in the twelve EU countries surveyed in the 2011 edition of the Transatlantic Trends poll, 41% see the Chinese economy as a threat while 46% see it as an opportunity. This reflects vast differences among countries, the French at one end of the spectrum with 56% seeing China as a threat, the Dutch on the other end with only 22% interpreting China as a threat. Similar splits were reflected in the immediate reactions to the announcement that the EFSF was looking to China to secure some of the bailout funds.

Probably the biggest concern right now is that with the current political fragility of the EU, there is a real potential for Chinese investment to exploit and exacerbate European disunity. First, opinion is split in Europe when it comes to the desirability of Chinese investment, with objections ranging from the political to the cultural. Second, no mechanism exists right now at the EU level for vetting foreign investments (on grounds other than competition policy). Third, European nations will logically compete with each other to attract Chinese investment with all sorts of incentives. All of this could combine into a perfect storm shattering European unity.

The predicted surge of Chinese investment in Europe presents great opportunities; after all, it is better for the EU if Chinese companies come to Europe and employ local workers than if European companies go East to employ Chinese workers. But in order for this investment to truly rescue European economies, Europeans have to be careful to present a unified response so that China does not end up ruling by dividing, carving out concessions in the heart of Europe as an irony of history.

Sophie Meunier is a Research Scholar in Public and International Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School and Co-Director of the EU Program at Princeton University. She is the author of Trading Voices: The European Union in International Commercial Negotiations (2005) and The French Challenge: Adapting to Globalization (2001), as well as editor of Europe and the Management of Globalization (2010).

 
 
 
 
 
  • Comments
  • 25
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
01:13 AM on 11/07/2011
China's readiness to help the debt-ridden EU has been unjustly politicized by some Europeans fear that China's assistance comes in exchange for EU concessions, reflecting EU’s mistrust with its strategic partner. When China seeked to enter the WTO 10 years ago, it was the only country on the waiting list of the market economy countries. Ever since China has been moving to facilitate the state interference of the economy and upgrade this obsolete system that doesn't favor fair play between state and private business, domestic/foreign-invested companies. Refusing to accept China, because it did not meet "technical criteria" and ignoring other countries with similar defects portrays how the EU adopts selective standards toward different nations. It’s no news China is the EU's second largest trading partner, and the EU is China's biggest overseas market. As stated, China's "shopping spree" includes Luxury Fashion brands, automobile houses, bonds from other sinking countries’ Sovereign Debt etc. Recognizing China's help would be proof of the EU's trust and intention to expand bilateral relations. Political reciprocity, balanced economic and trade ties would bring economic recovery. Sharing the difficulties at this critical moment could turn hardships into hopes and deepen trust. In a nutshell; China's goodwill deserves fair treatment. Quoting an article, http://www.chinaperformancegroup.com/2011/10/should-china-come-to-the-rescue-of-europe%e2%80%99s-economic-woes/, "it seems the real question isn't “Should China come to the rescue of Europe’s economic woes?” but, “How can China NOT rescue Europe?”
06:23 PM on 11/04/2011
Neither. China should do nothing when it comes to the EU bailout issue.
photo
Ed Baker
Militant Moderate
12:50 PM on 11/04/2011
Should we look at all of these issues as a monolith? Probably not. Chinese investment in privately held assets, especially at these levels is really inconsequential. Non-domestic investment in the US is a positive thing. Hyundai, Honda, Toyota, Nissan, BMW have all built factories here - Fiat just purchased Chrysler..... all of these companies are publicly traded, and while much of the management might not be American, a good portion of the shareholders might be. So, a Chinese firm buys Saab - good - no one else wanted it. Since labor is the most expensive part of making anything, it's a good thing when factories are built in the West... no matter who builds them. As far as the companies having any nationality - that's really foolish to even talk about. Take Ford - I'm sure some German and Japanese pension funds own large blocks of shares in that firm.

As to non-domestic powers owning large portions of sovereign debt - this is cause for concern. As Bill Clinton once said "we can't get tough with the Chinese because the Chinese are our bankers - you can't get tough with your bankers." When we keep going deeper and deeper into debt, we give others leverage over us..... Foreign investors owning large portions of our debt is a bad thing - it gives them power over us.

So they are really two different issues.
12:12 PM on 11/04/2011
Before free trade with communist China we didn't have a collapsing economy. Our fall is due to their rise and visa versa. We have integrated with a huge communist dictatorship and we see the results. It's not only our economy which is collapsing so too is our democracy .
09:20 AM on 11/05/2011
So you blaming China now that your leaders and CEO's are either shortsighted or stew pid ?
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
11:49 AM on 11/04/2011
If the USA, Greece, UK, PIIGS, etc. had a larger industrial manufacturing portion as a part of their GDP, that would create additional NATIONAL WEALTH, then these governments would be able to raise more funds to spend on government activities by confiscating some of this newly created NATIONAL WEALTH and then not having to borrow WEALTH (US Dollars) back from the foreign industrialized nations that create their own NATIONAL WEALTH to pay for their individual government expenses.

The negative International Trade Deficits must be corrected by any means possible in order to generate more NATIONAL WEALTH and stop the flow of title to in-country located privately owned assets (businesses, factories, casinos, hotels, farms, land, ports, refineries, forests, ports, breweries, distilleries, and other NATIONAL WEALTH) that are leaving the de-industrialized nations to pay for the things that we import from foreign manufacturers, and also to pay for increasing government expenses, such as stimulus for infrastructure expenses. The Trade Deficit is the basic structural economic foundation problem that will destroy the US economic miracle because title to US located assets are also leaving the USA to pay for the things that we import in addition to US government expenses.

Brazil, Russia, India, China, Pakistan, South Korea, and other industrialized countries of the world with a positive net foreign trade balance are NET CREATORS of NATIONAL WEALTH for their nations and the de-industrialized nations with a negative net trade balance are NET CONSUMERS (DESTROYERS) of their existing NATIONAL WEALTH.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
12:01 PM on 11/04/2011
Foreigners continue to accept US Treasury Dollars only because these US Dollars can quickly be exchanged for title to privately owned land, hotels, farms, businesses, casinos and other wealth and assets located in the USA that were created by previous generations of US citizens, before the de-industrialization of the USA, instead of Gold.

The US government refers to these sales of existing US assets to foreigners to pay for the imported products that the US consumes and US federal government activities as "INVESTING IN AMERICA"

This is "sort-of like" US citizens selling our body parts to keep from working!

US citizens are racing to sell title to everything in the USA of value that was created by previous working generations of US citizens in order to keep US citizens from working today to make the things that US citizens purchase and consume.

This will keep the USA from re-industrializing and allow US citizens to not work as required to produce the things that US citizens consume until the USA has no more assets to pay for our imported products and our government expenses.

Foreign individuals in foreign industrial nations that create wealth will eventually own everything of value in the USA as they redeem their US dollars that they earned by manufacturing US consumer products for title to privately owned wealth and assets located in the USA (that were created by previous US generations prior to de-industrialization) that are located in the USA.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
12:04 PM on 11/04/2011
Foreigners will then become the major (or maybe the only) source of employment for US citizens after they redeem their US Treasury bonds for title to and control of all of the assets located in the USA.

The US population will then become employees; possibly indentured servants; or maybe even beg to become slaves or indentured servants owned by the foreign countries and/or foreign individuals that will own everything of value in the USA in the very near future if the US government continues to destroy the US economy and the purchasing power of the US dollar with deficit federal government spending.

US citizens apparently believe that we are entitled to sit idle and not work in some dirty factory making the things that US citizens consume, when US citizens can borrow money and obligate our children and unborn grandchildren to work and pay off our US Treasury Bond debts that we accumulate while we continue our easy non-productive lifestyle.

This current situation of using borrowed money for (unlimited) US government expenses might end when the USA runs out of privately owned US property and other assets that foreigners will accept in return for the US dollars that US citizens paid to those foreign workers in foreign factories to make the things that US citizens purchased and consumed.
09:51 AM on 11/04/2011
If you consider outside influence as a threat then all opportunities are threats as there are no free lunches in this world. During the "century of humiliation" the Europeans forced China to buy opium, invaded and looted China (some of these loots were later auctioned to China breaking price records) when China refused to comply. Today at least the Chinese are offering Europeans money rather than forcing them to do drugs.

If you look at the figures of investment dollars from 3rd world nations though, it's still just a tiny portion of the European economy. In other words, the whole issue is overblown.
12:15 PM on 11/04/2011
Yes, there are no free lunches. That is an axiom of economics. And yes, all foreign influence is a bad thing.

China is a brutal G_dless communist dictatorship.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Red Herring
Retired Miner, living in third world
07:03 PM on 11/04/2011
And the USA is a brutal Godless capitalist dictatorship. I thinK, knowing what i do about the USA and capitalism that I will take China as the kinder more civic responsible regeime.
02:33 AM on 11/04/2011
China is no threat to Europe. China is wisely approaching the number one position in the world. Not the fake American claim to be number one. Apart from the interior conflict with Tibet, China is a peacefull nation. They have no interest to police the world, never had. Their population is a fifth of the current total world population. It is a mammoth task to grow economically, feed the citizens and create wealth for more and more people. It will take time, but China will dominate this millenium.

The junk papers (CDS) banks worldwide bought from the USA are a much bigger threat to European safety than Chinese investing in Europe. And still the USA and the UK want no regulation on banks. Go figure.
12:18 PM on 11/04/2011
Do you know what China means in Chinese? It means "center of the universe". Yes, the Chinese people call themselves the center of the universe. It's right there in their name.

And if you think China is peaceful then I suppose you think Soviet Russia was peaceful.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Red Herring
Retired Miner, living in third world
07:04 PM on 11/04/2011
Actually it is. Unlike the USA it has not been continually at war for the past 60 years.
09:15 AM on 11/05/2011
I didn't know it meant that in Chinese, but actually it was for a long time period. When you just think about all the things that Chinese have invented, marvellous. And compared to the USA, they are a very peacefull nation. America has supported dictatorships or corrupt regimes around the world when it was in her favor as long as I folllow politics. From the Sha to Mubarak, from Saddam to Pinochet or Karzai, the USA is playing her puppets and paying them well in the process. Compared to all this, China is an island of peace.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jeff Forsythe
11:36 PM on 11/03/2011
Articles such as this tend to legitimize the West's trading with the brutal Chinese Communist Party but the main concern of anyone who knows the truth about the brutal Chinese Communist Party should be trying to restore any semblance of human rights to China.
By lying to its people and teaching them that God and goodness are unnecessary, the cruel Party has eliminated the morality that used to be there.
The cruel Party has murdered 80 million of its own people since 1949 and is now attempting the genocide of tens of millions of innocent Falun Gong practitioners.
The gangster regime uses torture, slavery, organ harvesting and murder in its paranoid struggle to maintain control of its people.
Human rights, issues that the West use to cherish but has now turned its back on for financial gains.
This is just my understanding.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Red Herring
Retired Miner, living in third world
07:07 PM on 11/04/2011
You could not even find China on a map. let alone know anything at all about their internal affairs.
Fact. China has raised 400 million people out of poverty over the past ten years. How many millions has the US shoved into poverty in the same period. First look to your own s**thole of a country before critisizing an other.
09:11 PM on 11/03/2011
Great post. But what is the alternative? Who will invest in Europe if the Chinese don't, and where will Chinese money go if not in Europe?
07:07 PM on 11/03/2011
It's an interesting progression of globalization that it's come to this: China beginning to invest in Europe. Perhaps a lesson to be learned from the Chinese themselves is to pair up Chinese ventures with European companies in joint partnerships so dominance doesn't shift to a foreign country in Europe -- although that would be ironic considering China's 'century of humiliation.'
06:24 PM on 11/03/2011
The U.S. bought Great Britain's assets when it had to face two world wards. Now China may purchase U.S. and European assets when they face the results of their fiscal folly. I don't see much difference in being owned by the autocrats in Wall St. or the autocrats in Beijing.

Perhaps Greece could lease a few of its islands to help with its debt crisis in lieu of repayment of its foreign debt. Britain leased Hong Kong for 99 years...or was that 150 years. In any case, a Greek island under the control of Germany would have a much higher probability of being run on a profitable basis than being left part of the Greek nation. After 99 years the Greeks would get back an island which would be very productive. Everyone wins.

If the Chinese take over a few Greek, Italian, Spanish islands, they could fill them with excess population and, with any luck, eventually take over Europe. That would handle the declining population in that area of the world. Might even result in the Westernization of China... or vice versa..

Now here in Canada we have huge frozen Arctic islands which are almost totally uninhabited ...for a good reason. It's really really cold most of the time. Other than for the vast oil and mineral resources which they contain... ? Well maybe they would be interested.