By Stephen Viscusi
Economists tell us that the recession may soon be ending. "Recession" is an economic term.
Economist, are never really certain that a recession has started, until a year after it does. Then the same thing in applies reverse, when recession ends.
Then, economists tell us a year later that the "recession" ended, in such and such a month. It is all the mystery of "economics". (I suppose that is why, economist...qualify for Nobel Peace Prizes.)
No matter when the "economist" tell us the economic recession has ended, I, Stephen Viscusi, predict we will remain in a "jobs depression" - through 2010. A severe jobs depression will be here for the duration of 2010.
Who am I? The star of the upcoming TV series "The Headhunter From Hell" and I am the author of the Harper Collins book "Bulletproof Your Job".
The world has changed, as have government programs. What were then bread lines in 1929 are not, people applying for food stamps cards. People, who once had an Amex card, now have what looks like an Amex credit card, but people can use to buy groceries. What were "food stamps" are now food cards. In some states, you can even use these cards at COSTCO.
Occasionally, we see old newsreels of news stories, of people jumping out of windows, as they lost their family fortunes, mostly all on paper. Banks collapsed, and were closed. Depressed and in despair. We are told suicide, seemed the only way out for so many.
I cannot help but feel, from the e-mails and letters I get from my viewers and readers that, the suicides of 1929, from bank collapse and stock market collapse, will now be copy-catted-- to suicides of people, who can no longer find work, in 2009 and 2010-- Men and woman, but mostly white men over 50 who can no longer find work. Worse, for them, because everyone will be talking about the "changing economic news for 2010", and the stock market will rise, and -so, if you are currently unemployed, with all this positive economic news, you understandably will feel bewildered, depressed, stressed., that if things are getting good again--how come you can't find a job?
I dare say the yammering of the money talking heads, like Jim Cramer "Mad Money", and Suze Orman, who will be in glee over the fact that they are semi "relevant" again. These money talking heads will keep their jobs, even though you will not be getting yours back. Let me be the first to say, I could not write a book on how to tell how to invest your 401K, anymore, than I would expect, a money talking head or author, could tell you how to save your job or find a new one.
For the very first time, people who had always held "good jobs" - cannot get back to work. Men tell me they are emasculated, and the women tell me, they feel, whatever the reverse of that is.
What is left for these people? My viewers and readers tell me they cannot pay their mortgage or rent--maybe then cannot pay child support. Therapy, Prozac - all that stuff, often does not help. Time will tell if my terrible and sad prediction about these "unemployment" related suicides in 2009 and 2010--is correct.
Much like it takes the economist, a year to tell us when a recession ends or starts - when the statistics, of suicides, of those unemployed - when they are statically studied years later, we will learn that there were more suicides in 009 and 2010, from distressed unemployed people.
So, in spite of the fact that the stock market may raise in 2010, jobs will not. Barely a hiccup of growth in jobs. Nothing.
How do I know this? I am a "Jobconomist." A new word I invented that describes, an employment expert, whose experience, based on history, and changing technology. One needs not be a genius, one just needs to be a realist, understand people, business, and follow patterns of the past. Jobconomist--are mostly intuitive-- or maybe "counter-intuitive" is a better word.
Therefore, I am predicting as a "Jobconomist," that very few new jobs will be created in 2010. At least another 14 months of, unemployment for those of you who are unemployed? If you are lucky enough to have a job, the thousands of people that have read my latest book, "Bulletproof Your Job" (HarperCollins) - tell me, that in this book, I give realistic techniques and strategies on how you can still be "the last employee standing." The book is published in 9 languages. My first book is called "On the Job" (Random House).
Now do not kill the messenger, or yourself, but I know I am right. The rising stock market, changing political climate and talking heads, babbling over money, and politics, will distract you next year, from realizing that, the fact our economic recession may be ending--but the dire job climate, lack of growth, will remain.
I don't mean to sound "12 steppish"; however the 12 step programs have a record of success. The first step is always the same, "admit you have a problem in order to solve it, or find a solution"
Solution: Everyone looking for a job, six months, or more - and cannot find one, needs to admit to themselves, that they have a problem. The problem is they may be that they are not employable, because of the skills set, experience, attitude--the list goes on, but the problem is the same, "you are unemployable" admit it. Not let's take that problem and find a solution. Only by admitting this problem to yourself - can you then free yourself?
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