In my keynote Wednesday night at CES, the annual consumer electronics show in Las Vegas, I talked about a number of trends transforming the role that technology plays in our lives -- trends like the proliferation of ever cheaper and lighter HD screens, the combination of smart devices and powerful PCs connected to the cloud and the changing nature of television when combined with innovative software.
But if I had to pick one technology trend I think will have a major impact this year, it's the entirely new ways in which computing technology will work more naturally alongside us.
For years, we've relied on familiar GUI (graphical user interface) tools and methods -- the keyboard and mouse; menus and commands; clicking and scrolling; files and folders -- to control and manipulate computers and the applications that run on them.
But I believe we will look back on 2010 as the year we expanded beyond the mouse and keyboard and started incorporating more natural forms of interaction such as touch, speech, gestures, handwriting, and vision -- what computer scientists call the "NUI" or natural user interface. This process is already well underway through the proliferation of new touch screen phones and PCs, and in our growing reliance on voice-controlled in-car technology for communications, navigation, and entertainment.
In some ways, this transformation has been a long time coming. For many years now, Microsoft has been working on NUI-based technologies such as speech, touch, contextual and environmental awareness, immersive 3D experiences, and anticipatory computing -- all with the goal of a computer that can see, listen, learn, talk and act smartly on our behalf. Ever since the development of the first computers, this lofty goal has been one of the most challenging problems in computer science. But an incredible expansion in computing power along with new breakthroughs in software have enabled us to solve many of these problems, putting us at the verge of an important leap forward.
Microsoft's recent work in the area of video gaming is starting to bring NUI to life in a tangible way. As we shared at CES, an ambitious effort codenamed "Project Natal" which uses sophisticated sensors and software to track body movements, recognize faces, and respond to spoken directions is something we plan to bring to market by holiday of this year. With Project Natal your whole body is turned into a video game controller, so that you can enjoy games with friends the same way that you play them in the real world -- by talking, shouting, running, swinging, and a million other movements and gestures.
While Project Natal will transform the video gaming and in-home entertainment experience, I believe it only hints at the potential of the technology behind it. In the near future, computers will do more than work at our command: they will work on our behalf, acting as assistants that understand what we want and possessing the intelligence to carry out complex tasks in a way that accurately reflects -- and even predicts -- our preferences and intentions.
Simply put, NUI is about easing discovery so that the computing technology that surrounds you acts as a more natural and dynamic partner, not a tool, for helping you work, live and have fun. And, I believe these advances will help usher in a new generation of human-computer interaction this decade.
(Read Ballmer's previous exclusive blog for HuffPostTech here.)
Tom Matzzie: CES 2010: A Taxonomy of the Crowd
The "types" of people here at CES 2010? Pitchman. Gadget Nut. Association Type. Buyers. Engineers. Trainer. Townie. PR Flak. Japanese. Hustlers. Wave-Riders. Bloggers.
Robert J. Elisberg: CES 2010: The Convention Strikes Back
Wandering through the South Hall, the technology is overwhelming. Only about a quarter of a percent makes it through the brain waves and into print.
Ramon Nuez: What Would Henry Ford be Saying CES 2010
Ford is forging ahead with technologies that will improve customer experience like -- electric vehicles, hybrid cars and the Ford SYNC.
John Bergquist: CES 2010: Surprised In Vegas
Every time I head to a conference or trade show I have that first impulse to make detailed lists of talks to see or booths...
And, frankly speaking, some of the highlighted games are downright hokey. Seriously, how excited am I supposed to get about waiting around for an on-screen race car (which lacks a real steering wheel) to enter the on-screen pit stop so I can mime the process of changing an on-screen wheel? As an aside, doesn't Microsoft understand that many Americans hate mimes? Smile. Just kidding.
Further, in reference to the skateboarding game, that kid has a skateboard and really needs to get out of the house. Concocting new ways to tie children to the TV (or to a console) is, IMHO a bad idea.
On a more positive note, I do really like the group-play aspects of Natal.
Thanks, Microsoft, for thinking of new ways to un-tether us from hardware and for thinking of new forms of family interaction, but don't forget that, in some cases, hardware makes sense and, in almost every case, real outdoor activity is more valuable than burning one's eyes out with an electronic display.
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My problem with MS is that its asleep at the wheel.. sure they come out with new stuff but its always a me-to product... never original. I see this new NUI war cry as MS looking at what apple has done/is doing and is trying to change the definition of good interface with NUI just so they can call themselves the leader.
Look at the MS record for predicting stuff like this... Anyone out there wearing a spot watch? How many of you have tablets? The list goes on. More MS FUD.
And the words "natural" and Microsoft when describing UI in the same sentence? The only thing natural about MS is that they do not work well due to shabby programing and very poor use case/quality control.
The last thing I would do is strap something on my body that was made by the company that released a console (360) that had a 40% failure rate (due to overheating no less).
For crying out loud, they can't get two user choice dialogue boxes that make sense, they are going to get voice recognition and advanced gesturing? Y'OK, maybe tomorrow.
Peace.
For years we have heard the promise of effective voice recognition but the processing power, filtering and speed still have not made that a widely accepted technology.
I understand the need to keep the buzz alive at CES and to put some wind in sails that apples rumored device has sucked out. To me the story continues to be less power for more powerful devices all in smaller packages. We appear to be in an evolutionary phase rather than evolutionary.
BTW - look at 1080P and you will note that has been pure hype for the past 3 years and 3 years from now the 3D TV chatter will be how that remains just around the corner.
I switched to Mac years ago and my only regret is not doing so earlier.
Will we still be using this linear model a thousand years from now? There are 4 dimension in our ordinary world and, yet, we only use 3: a line (2) and time (1) to communicate.
everyone as a national priority and mandate.
There's far too much corporate protectionism holding back technology that
should be a natural part of the nation's infrastructure.
Living an hour from the nation's capitol, I can't get quality broadband at any reasonable price.
It's ridiculous!
That when most fortune and innovation is done. When times are tough and you have to do more with less. It amazing what thinking and a little ingenuity can do.