Ayatollah Khamenei's legitimacy as Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran is at a very fragile moment and being challenged by Iranian citizens throughout the nation, according to reports streaming in, despite media controls and a Western press blackout.
To see a very disturbing video in which men who were going to be hanged appeared to be saved by citizens in the streets, watch this clip.
Reform presidential candidate Mir Hossen Mousavi's nephew was killed today in clashes with police. There is no easy way now for the opposition to back down and wait for a more appropriate time to move their advocates and followers into the street.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has become the new Shah -- hated by so many within the country that it seems implausible that Iranian elites will ever be able to operate without much distrust and fear of each other.
The United States needs to be very cautious -- and not do anything on the ground in Iran that would allow the incumbent government to to evade "the death to the dictator" chants directed at it by distracting the country with evidence of credible external interventions.
This phase in Iran's next revolution could subside again before an even larger explosion by embedded protesters. It's just too hard to tell at this moment.
But as Iran expert Barbara Slavin just wrote to me, things don't look good for Khamenei and his government. She wrote to me via Facebook: "[Khamenei] is stuck. If he begins to compromise, he's lost -- and if he doesn't, he's lost."
-- Steve Clemons publishes the popular political blog, The Washington Note. You can follow Clemons' writing and work here via twitter.
UPDATE: This video shows that the protesters are trying to win over the police. This is a fascinating clip of police and protesters on the edge -- but trying not to go over what would be potentially horrible lines:
-- Steve Clemons
Follow Steve Clemons on Twitter: www.twitter.com/SCClemons
If you care about people in Teheran, then focus some of
that charity on Detroit, for example. Our country is falling
to bits and here we are telling other people to "do it" our
way. Steve Clemons needs rescue from Gilligan's Island!
Iran isn't threatening, they're laughing at us!
Iran apparently also does not have WWF, NASCAR, & TV reality shows to more politely distract their citizens from mass protests.
The ruling-elite Empire here could give some of their more advanced "Brave New World" style 'soft power' PR and control techniques to Ahmadinejad and Iran, so that they would have less need to use the older, Orwellian “1984”, 'hard power' techniques.
After all, it’s been almost four decades since Kent State and Black Panther control techniques have had to be used on the now-complacent and "Quiet American" populace.
However, all real Americans left, empathize with the average working-class Iranians and we hope that your fight against the old-style visible elitist Empire in your own country is as successful as our ancestors’ was against the foreign, ‘red coat’ old-style British Empire that we overthrew.
Many people in many countries have overcome domestic dictators, and even visible foreign empires, and you will succeed independently, driven by your own frustration, courage, honesty, and solidarity.
The best we American people can do currently is to try to keep this damn disguised Global Empire from mucking you up. Please have similar empathy as we try to overcome the more guileful Global corporatist Empire that currently has our country (and others) by the throat.
Alan MacDonald
Sanford, Maine
http://www.juancole.com/2009/12/iran-roiled-crowds-burn-banks-police.html
The chanting on Sunday turned against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself, not just against President Ahmadinejad. He was castigated as the Dictator and as worse than the old shah, and the very ideological basis of the regime, the doctrine of clerical rule, was chanted against in the streets. The legitimacy of the regime, profoundly shaken by the events since early June's presidential election, is now being shredded further.
They were predicted to be compared to the Shah if repression of the protests by brutal force continued, and they have. They didn't completely crush everything at the beginning for fear of lending the comparison legitimacy, and were hoping to finagle their way out of another stolen election. However what they did was more than enough. Now they are in a Catch 22 and don't know which way to go. More oppressive crackdowns? Progresses the issue broadens base for the opposition. Less oppressive crackdowns? More people will take to the streets and protest. They are on their way out.
Barbara Slavin and other Iran pundits are gradually seeing it as it is. Iran opposition leader, Massoud Rajavi, said a few years back that Khamenei faced a lethal decision: Suicide or Death. Back down and commit suicide or don't back down and fall at Iranian people's hands. We should listen more closely.
Granted there will be some violence but even many of the authorities in Iran know the hard liner Ayatollahs are wrong and don't support them. As soon as the tipping point is reached I hope for peaceful resolution and transition.