5 weeks from today, if progressives and Democrats would snap out of it, there could be a new Latino Mayor of New York City. Freddy Ferrer is within striking distance of joining Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa of Los Angeles in making bi-coastal Latino history this year. But no one besides the Ferrer Campaign http://www.ferrer2005.com seems to have noticed.
The current Mayor has pulled a curtain over the pundits' eyes, convincing them by the most massive TV ad barrage in mayoral history that his re-election is inevitable. And even though that he lives in one of the most anti-Bush cities in America, Bloomberg has so far managed to avoid being tagged as a "Bush buddy" or a "Bush enabler"--despite the fact that he hosted the Republican National Convention a year ago, allowing Bush to lasso the missing Twin Towers/9-11 symbolism all for himself--and illegally restricting the antiwar protests while doing so!
However, just as is happening with Arnold Schwarzenegger in California, the Wizard of Oz curtain that has protected GOP "moderates" is tattered and torn now. In a nation that has turned against the corrupt conservative cronyism, illegal invasions, pro-rich/anti-poor policies, and grossly incompetent governance of George W. Bush, and particularly in an anti-Bush state like California, or a deeply anti-Bush city like New York, it's pretty tough to keep tap dancing fast enough to convince most Democrats you're really not a Republican--especially when you went out of your way last year to make sure that Bush & Cheney defeated Kerry & Edwards--as both Bloomberg & Shwarzenegger did.
Here's the context in New York City:
(1) New York City is seriously blue. And Michael Bloomberg did all he could last year to elect George W., and defeat the Democrats.
(2) New York City is deeply opposed to the Iraq War. Yet Mayor Bloomberg did all he could to restrict and harass and oppress legitimate, peaceful antiwar protests in 2003 and in 2004. He wouldn't negotiate fairly; he wouldn't share information with United for Peace & Justice organizers; he let his police restrict the parade routes, harass the marchers, and cut off the different sections of the 2003 march from each other; he prevented the use of Central Park at the GOP convention last year; and as recently as last week, he allowed his police units to harass Cindy Sheehan, and arrest an antiwar event organizer in Union Square.
Mayor Bloomberg is "enabling" the Iraq War. Mayor Bloomberg has allowed free speech and free assembly to be restricted in New York City, the most rambunctious city on the planet. He's been covering for his President since February 15th, 2003, and it's time for regime change in New York.
(3) This year may mark the first "majority-minority" mayoral election in New York City. There is a good chance that most ballots will be cast by Latinos & African Americans. This puts Freddy Ferrer in much better shape than the polls currently show, as Latinos get excited about the historic nature of the election, and African Americans come home to their Democratic, anti-Bush, and progressive leanings. In addition, what does a White pro-choice female New York voter think, as she watches the President that Bloomberg campaigned for, place two anti-choice justices in a row on the Supreme Court? A united Black/Brown coalition, with just enough hard-core White Democrats and liberal Jewish voters, could pull off this upset.
(4) Ferrer has a united Democratic Party. Bloomberg, on the other hand, can't really ask for help from the Republican Party--because the more that the GOP intervenes in his election, the easier it is for Ferrer to make national Republican policies and leadership the issue. Plus, the national Republicans are hurting him on local issues. What, for instance, should a New Yorker conclude about the real homeland security of the ports & train stations & subways & airports of the Big Apple, given the recent cluelessness exhibited by Bloomberg's favorite President in New Orleans?
(5) Right before the primary, the "Q-Poll" had Ferrer at 32%. He won the primary with 40%. It is likely that the poll (understandably) undercounted the Latino vote.
(6) Right after primary day, the "Q-Poll" showed Bloomberg leading by 52-38%. IMHO, this is the weakest 14% lead in the history of politics. Why?
Start with the fact that Bloomberg is only at 52%, after wall-to-wall, saturation, unanswered TV ads for months. This is actually kind of pitiful--barely half, when only one side of the story has been told...
Then consider the likely undercount of Latino voters in these polls--a rising population may be about to seize its rightful place in New York politics, as it did in Los Angeles earlier this year.
Add on the fact that as New Yorkers get serious about comparing the candidates, the political terrain favors Ferrer. It's a terrible year to be running as a Republican in such a blue city--and it's getting worse every day.
So what should we do? Well, as always, make sure Ferrer has enough money to compete. Second, we should contact everyone we know in New York City, to let them know what a blow it would be to the national GOP if a Puerto Rican Democrat pulled off this incredible upset. Third, we should begin talking up and blogging this race--the more we nationalize this race, the heavier the Bush millstone weighs around Bloomberg's neck.
The New York City mayoral race can be won. 5 weeks to go, and Freddy is ready to pull an upset.