Kilgore/Gilmore vs. Kaine/Warner

I went to a Tim Kaine for Governor rally last night, just to watch him in action. He did a good job, and there was a good crowd of Arlington blue voters out to see him, in spite of a cool, fall drizzle.
I particularly liked this: Kaine was telling the crowd how he had always started out behind, closed the gap through the summer and fall, and went on to win in November. He said he has the type of "personality that inspires underestimation."
Witty. Self-effacing. The ability to handle a mildly complex phrase without notes (or a wire).

I know more about New Mexico voting behavior than Virginia, but I like his chances. Why?
He's running as part of a tag team with popular Governor Mark Warner. His opponent, Jerry Kilgore, has the small problem that his name reminds voters of the last Republican Governor, Jim Gilmore, a stupendous failure who left the state books in a shambles (and was also fired from the RNC!).
Second, the Survey USA poll I mentioned the other day has George W's net disapproval rating at 56%, a net negative of 15 points in Virginia!
Third, Kaine does a clear job of contrasting the two tag teams:
*Kilgore/Gilmore/Bush = backward, out-of-control deficits, corrupt one-party rule, incompetence.
*Kaine/Warner/Democrats = forward, ballanced budgets, bipartisan leadership, competence in government.

But it's a close race, and since Corzine seems to be holding on in New Jersey, you know Karl & Ken & the RNC are desperate to win this one.
The key, especially in this off-off-year, is turnout.
A word to the wise...and to the rest of us...

[Update: links seem to be fixed now]