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Steve Hallett and John Wright

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Time Got It Wrong: Natural Gas Is No Panacea for Our Energy Crisis

Posted: 04/ 4/11 01:29 PM ET

Millions of people are reading the latest issue of Time magazine believing that there is a ready-made domestic solution to the energy crisis that will guarantee abundant energy and jettison foreign oil sheiks to the dustbin of history. If it were only true. This week's cover story paints an appealing picture, telling us that the United States has enough natural gas underground to replace barrels of oil by the billions. It seems that all we have to do is tweak some trivial environmental concerns and our energy crisis will be over. Time is an excellent magazine, indeed one of the best, but unfortunately, its reporters and editors got it wrong this time.

We're desperately awaiting good news, but the bad news involving energy steadily worsens. It was a year ago this week that 29 miners perished in West Virginia's Upper Branch coal mine and we collectively asked how much sooty coal we want to keep burning. Soon after, the Gulf of Mexico was carpeted with oozing gunk for months, forcing us to question whether offshore drilling is viable following the worst oil spill in history. That tragedy had only begun to recede when the Middle East began to explode and we once again confronted the vulnerability of our tenuous energy supplies. Then, as if Japan's double-punch earthquake and tsunami wasn't horrific enough, meltdown of the crippled nuclear power plant began. These events in rapid succession reminded us that every source of traditional energy is its own Hobson's choice fraught with danger.

All of these events together made people - and energy markets - increasingly jittery. Most Americans don't make the connection until their pocketbooks are affected, such as when fuel prices surge, along with air fares, transportation costs and everything else. But Americans don't want to hear about the problem; rather, our can-do attitude and American ingenuity demand a solution.

Right when energy is on everybody's mind, the biggest-circulation news magazine rides to our rescue with a compelling cover story "This Rock Could Power the World: Why Shale Can Solve the Energy Crisis." It proclaims that natural gas offers us a whole century of relatively clean energy.

We all hope for an easy fix, but there is none. We want scientists to perform miracles so we don't have to give up the conveniences of modern life provided by oil.

Natural gas is undeniably an abundant power source, and yet natural gas resources will outlive oil reserves by only two decades or so. The biggest supplies of natural gas are in Russia and the Middle East, and it is extremely difficult and expensive to transport gas across oceans. Conventional reserves of North American natural gas are in frighteningly limited supply.

But it seems we have been saved recently: enter the gas shales. While most natural gas fields are dwindling along with crude oil, the massive volumes of gas trapped in shale formations beneath Texas, Appalachia and elsewhere are attracting widespread attention and investment. The government's Energy Information Administration lists our proven reserves of natural gas at 237.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (Russia's, by comparison, are more than six times as much).

Promoters want us to think this gas will be produced in great volume with limited environmental impact. Shale gas, however, is really tricky to extract. It can't be coaxed to the surface without fracturing the shale formation with explosives and the injection of a cocktail of toxic chemicals under extremely high pressure - a process known as "fracking." Ingenious as this engineering solution is, it yields only a small percentage of the gas in the shale formation (estimates vary wildly from 1-25%). Furthermore, it risks polluting groundwater with the toxic fracking chemicals, and the costs of extraction are much greater than for conventional fields.

The industry is largely unregulated, with little oversight. The environmental impact threatens to be devastating if shale gas production ramps up: radioactivity in drinking water so full of solvents that it can be ignited as it gushes out of our faucets. If fracking increases exponentially, so will the accompanying hazards.

We can't let our desperation for energy force us to take our eye off the environmental ball. If these gas shales are supposed last us a hundred years why are petroleum industry optimists, as the environmental impacts mount, in such a reckless hurry to extract them?

Natural gas only extends the lifespan of carbon-based fuels by a couple of decades, so it is hardly a panacea. If natural gas is our best shot, then we need to aim better because we will severely short-change our future. Rather than pinning all of our hopes on natural gas, it should be approached as a short-term supplement to oil amid the transition to lasting renewable energy sources.

Steve Hallett is the author, with John Wright, of Life Without Oil: Why We Must Shift to a New Energy Future (March, Prometheus Books.)

 
 
 
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10:00 PM on 05/02/2011
I am not much of a follower of these issues - not much of a follower in any case. However, I find it interesting that an unnamed author on the Energy in Depth site (http://www.energyindepth.org/tag/john-wright/) links his critical article to this one. The Energy in Depth article, posted 4/6/11, cites in the first paragraph that Mr. Wright's book - The Obama Haters - is listed as # 597,804 on Amazon's Best Seller Ranks. If you look further down the Amazon page you will see that 4/6/11 was 27 days prior to the date of publication, yet the unnamed author doesn't mention this. Noting this intentional deception by the Energy in Depth site, I chose to not endure any more of their drivel. (There are two pages of crap if you want to waste your time on it). Today, 5/2/11, I checked that ranking on the Amazon site and see that it has risen to 393,277 only two days after the publication date! Do you think EiD will take notice of this?

Ignore the deceptive Energy in Depth site.
11:51 PM on 04/07/2011
We acknowledge natural gas is a viable energy source, significantly more abundant than oil and that it will outlive oil, we estimate by a couple of decades, but nobody knows for sure. Reserve estimates promoted by the industry can’t predict how much gas is recoverable or how long it will last. We don't know how much gas has been wasted by flaring to extract oil safely (to avoid explosions such as the Deepwater Horizon). Huge volumes of gas are in the ground, but what’s worrisome is that conventional natural gas reserves in North America are rapidly approaching peak; supplies will soon flatten and then decline. This decrease of conventional gas will put enormous pressure on us to ramp up gas production from shales. Will we really be able to consume natural gas at current levels for another 100 years (as Time suggests), or for "generations" (as Mr. Whitten says)? It’s doubtful. Converting infrastructure from oil to gas would require doubling or tripling output. Yes, the dregs will still trickle out at a pathetic rate in 100 years, but not in the volumes to drive our complex, vibrant economy. We are concerned about regulation of natural gas since the energy industries have a history of letting the environment and taxpayers foot the bill. Fracking problems persist because, absent federal regulations, rules are ineffectual in some localities. If the gas industry is so well regulated as Mr. Whitten argues, why don’t we even know what toxic chemicals are used in fracking mixtures?
07:06 PM on 04/05/2011
The authors dramatically understate the abundant supplies of U.S. natural gas and grossly misrepresent the drilling process. We now have more natural gas than Saudi Arabia has oil, and we are the world’s largest producer of this clean energy resource, having surpassed Russia in 2009.

Natural gas production is subject to extensive federal, state and local regulations and oversight. And contrary to this story’s claims, state investigators have found that prominent portrayals of igniting tap water, such as in the film Gasland, are not caused by oil and gas activities.

The authors also don’t bother citing any credible authorities supporting their claim that widely accepted supply estimates somehow are not accurate. In fact, the Potential Gas Committee, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, IHS CERA, and the Energy Information Administration say that we have many generations worth of natural gas supplies.

The excitement surrounding natural gas, because of its abundance right here in America and its contribution to a clean, secure energy future, is real, and it’s justified.

Dan Whitten, America's Natural Gas Alliance
01:44 AM on 04/07/2011
"We now have more natural gas than Saudi Arabia has oil, and we are the world’s largest producer of this clean energy resource, having surpassed Russia in 2009."

However, you have to import about 10% of gas from other sources (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/natural_gas_annual/nga.html)
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Malcolm Hensley
Last of the Reagan Republicans
02:12 AM on 04/05/2011
I think the EIA would dispute your estimates of a couple of decades of natural gas! There estimate is of the order of 100 years!
01:43 AM on 04/07/2011
The estimate is based on /actual consumption/, if you decide to convert all the vehicles (cars, trucks, trains, ships) and power generation and heath generation and so on to gas, then the consumption will have to increase, hence the reduced timespan.
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Malcolm Hensley
Last of the Reagan Republicans
02:09 AM on 04/05/2011
You say natural gas in shale will extend our dependence on fossil fuel only a couple of decades. Let's say for argument sake this is true!

Do you understand All cars can be retrofitted to run on natural gas. First do you understand what this does for cities like L.A.? Hint smog.

Do you have a clue what this does for our trade deficit?

20 years do you know where we can be in 20 years in battery technology?

I think they call it a bridge fuel for a reason!

Now I'll admit I'm bias! I drive a CNG vehicle and have for a couple of years now. I didn't like sending my money to the likes of Hugo Chavez or Gaddafi! I wanted to have a cleaner car than the hybrids but you know the sweetest revenge is I fill at home and pay less than $1.00/gallon equivalent! Gasoline here is over $4.00/gallon the cost of running my car is like I'm getting 140 miles per gasoline equivalent!

Think about that 140 miles/gallon equivalent! .
01:41 AM on 04/07/2011
"Do you understand All cars can be retrofitte­d to run on natural gas." Sure, but when you've done that you'll discover you'll need a lot more gas to run all the cars, and cars cannot run only on gas, you still need lubricants (made from oil), artificial rubber (made from oil), coolant (made from oil)... The idea of replacing tout-court oil with gas simply doesn't work.
"do you know where we can be in 20 years in battery technology­" do we have 20 years to invest in battery technology? Have batteries changed that much in the past 20 years?.
They call it 'a bridge fuel' but a bridge to what? What's on the other side of this bridge?