Election Monitor: 197 Days to Go and the Trend Is Toward Romney

Friends,

Mitt Romney may have rescued his fight for the nomination in Michigan with a narrow 3 point win on February 28th, but it was his nearly 12 point blow-out of Rick Santorum in Illinois on March 20th that probably ended the GOP nomination battle. What has gone unreported is that the President has been losing ground to Romney ever since that Illinois contest. So much so, that by the time Rick Santorum took to the podium on April 10th and announced he was suspending his campaign for the GOP nomination, Romney was moving close to near vote share parity with the President.

In the 2 weeks since that announcement, we have had muddled but largely negative economic news, government scandals and an emergent Mitt Romney. While there will be plenty of twists and turns in this campaign, we may look back at the moments before Romney's big victory in Illinois as the high water mark of the Obama reelection campaign.

Let's get straight to the head to head polling data and what we think it means. We took all public and private polling data since January of this year and plotted a regression trend line.

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama began the year virtually tied, but Romney's net standing against the President eroded as the divisive primary season wore on. Romney reached his lowest ebb, trailing Obama by nearly six points, in early March -- but his subsequent success in knocking out Rick Santorum has also helped close the gap against the President. The two are again back to approximate parity.

Obviously, at this point we are too far out to project, but the trend is in Romney's favor and he has had this momentum for 6 weeks.

Here is our take on the current political environment:

• The GSA and Secret Service scandals are taking a toll on the President's reelection three ways; 1) they send a signal to voters that the administration is not on top of things (further eroding their sense that the President's team is competent,) 2) it is a distraction that detracts from the White House messaging strategy and 3) it further erodes trust in public institutions at a time of extremely high political alienation. None of this is good for a President running for reelection.


• The economy continues to stagnate and this is hugely problematic for the White House. In our last edition, we noted some increasing signs of green shoots in the U.S. economy, particularly in the unemployment report. However, data released over the last month show a possible slowdown in this recovery already. Ongoing concerns about Europe, rising gas prices and a rise in new jobless claims are all troubling. A stalled recovery continues to be the biggest obstacle to Obama's reelection. Additionally, we are experiencing the same Spring slowdown that appears to be the new normal in housing markets that had appeared to hit bottom this winter. Student loans are another troubling sector, where debt continues to compound to all-time highs.


• This is not 1984. And it is not even close. For a while late last year and early this spring, some pundits suggested that the Obama recovery may look a lot like Reagan's. Wrong. As the charts below show, this economic recovery is staggeringly slow compared to the one nearly 30 years ago. For example, GDP growth the last two quarters of 1983 were 5 to 6 times greater than the same period in 2011.

Similarly, job growth in the second half of 1983 was 2 to 3 times greater than in 2011.

• Enthusiasm for Obama may be receding among young voters. A recent Public Religion Institue/Georgetown University study found 18- to 24-year-olds do prefer Obama over a generic Republican, 48 percent to 41 percent. Still, this is a far different result than the 2008 election, where Obama did historically well among young voters, besting McCain 66 percent to 32 percent among 18- to 29-year-olds. Additionally, the favorability gap between Obama and Romney is closing: 52 percent of young adults in the survey had a favorable impression of Obama and 32 percent had a favorable impression of Romney. Note that horserace data for Obama vs. Romney isn't available from this survey fielded in March.

• President Obama lost Independents in 2010 and they have not come back. Like the last three elections, the key to this one will be Independents/swing voters. The President lost a sizable chunk of these voters with health care reform and a stagnant economy in late 2009. There is nothing in the data to suggest they are likely to move back to the President. For this reason, his overall approval rating remains stuck in the 44 to 48 percent range.

On the other hand, the President has some advantages:

• He has more money. As Saturday's Washington Post story shows, the President has a large cash advantage (10 times) over Romney. Now, the GOP nominee will likely do well on the super Pac side but is unlikely to bridge the gap.


• He is the President. As the New York Times reported yesterday, there are distinct advantages to being POTUS and running for reelection. Not the least of which is blurring the lines between presidential visits to key swing states and political ones.


• He is more popular. The President has an enormous advantage in terms of personal popularity over Governor Romney. According to last week's WSJ/NBC News Poll, the President leads Romney by 30 points on "likability" and 25 points on "cares about average people." Romney needs to close the gap on these. He can win if the gap is 10 points but not if it is 30.

Our sense is that this race is 50/50 at this point in time. Both candidates are pretty weak. The advantage for the President is that Romney has high unfavorables (worst rating for any party nominee in nearly 30 years). The advantage for Romney is that 2012 remains an issue election rather than a personality one. Additionally, there is every indication that voters will look at this as a referendum on the President rather than a choice between two visions. That is why Romney needs a future-oriented narrative that clearly contrasts him with the President. We will know how well that is working in the weeks ahead.

Special thanks to John Zirinsky, Chris Blunt and Allison Quigley for their insights and contributions to this election monitor. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

(Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008 but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.)

 

Follow Steve Lombardo on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Steve_Lombardo

Comments

[amaboss52]

04:36 PM on 05/08/2012

Why would hp use a piece written by a robneybot, and run with it? Lombardo was the communications guy on the Romney campaign. Nope no bias here, LOL!

[Jab Allen]

08:16 PM on 05/04/2012

Your electoral map is wrong on several states even now, so I question its general accuracy. Nevada, Wisconsin and New Hampshire are either leaning to Romney or tossups, not solid for Obama as you have them. Such glaring errors discredit the whole map.

[Stephen Fox5]

02:39 AM on 04/27/2012

Gingrich out-debated Romney and so I expect will Obama. I expect Romney to avoid debates when possible, stay with Fox news and staged events and go negative especially late in the campaign. Romney made a lot of statements during the primaries that will be hard to defend. His religion will probably work against him with evangelicals. Unemployment keeps dropping and the stockmarket is improving and so on, all good for Obama. Romney, being committed to increasing military spending, with no revenue increases means cutting benefits and programs. Whatever Romney cuts, farm aid, education, environment, food stamps, heating subsidies, he looses votes from those that benefit from them. On foreign policy I am not convinced that his hard line will help him. After two long expensive wars without much to show for it there might not be much appetite for that kind of talk. I should add that I reserve the right to be totally wrong on all these opinions.

[jem6695]

12:17 AM on 04/26/2012

I don't know where you get your info but everyone I talk to thinks mitts is so far out of touch with what is going on in the dally lives of Americans there is no way he will be elected... His own party does not want him so best for you to conduct a new poll and ask real people the questions...

[Nick Loutchaninoff]

06:43 PM on 04/25/2012

This is the biggest bunch of trash I've read in in months... spin-spin-spin!!!

[ejohnson510]

02:04 PM on 04/25/2012

Steve Lombardo, who wrote the above piece works for the Romney campaign, this piece is nothing more than Romney talking points. For example, I don't see any evidence that the President has been affected by GSA or the secret service scandals.

All of the serious discussions by real reporters and pundits are comparing this election to 2004, not 1984, with President Obama in the position of incumbent Pres. Bush.

The president's numbers are trending up in virtually all of the important categories, yes, it will be a very close election but at the moment I believe things look good for the president.

[profco]

07:51 AM on 04/25/2012

As the latest polls indicate, Romney is doing well in Texas and New Hampshire, but he trails Obama in Florida and Ohio by more than the statistical margin of error. No question that it will be a squeaker election, but the outcome will depend less on economic statistics than 1) Obama's ability to resurrect Candidate Obama who ran in 2008 and convince voters he is the same guy and 2) the Obama-Biden campaign's ability to use Romney's etch-a-sketch drafts--that outline almost every conceivable position on any specific issue--against him. Daily Show reruns are available online--all Obama needs is one or two good researchers to glean through them and find the inconvenient and unpleasant truths about Romney that the MSM has been reluctant to bring up.

[TP2]

08:04 AM on 04/30/2012

Good piece profco, just want to correct one thing. According to the latest New Hampshire poll, Obama leads Romney by 9 points.

[cnick]

04:22 PM on 05/01/2012

This is obviously what they are telling Romney every day, have they told him about the state polls and the electoral vote trends yet??

[LeftLeanWing]

02:39 AM on 04/25/2012

How obama will win

Women

      The WAR on WOMEN is Real

Latinos...  

      the fastest growing voting demo that (R)s treat like xhit.

Jews.......  

    they invented liberalism....and the cons haven't noticed that most of the boogeymen are jews


Black Voters...

     Black Voters are gonna show up....big time........


Michigan and Florida .....  Car Bailout and the anti-Rick Scott vote.....

[Pastori Balele]

02:16 AM on 04/25/2012

How can GOP expect Romney to win in November? Normal thinking American women won't vote for him after budding with Scott Walker who has revoked all women's rights in Wisconsin. Seniors won't vote for Romney after budding with Ryan-Care. Blacks won't vote for Romney who hates them. Young and the poor people won't vote for Romney after saying he does not care for them. Let's prepare voting for President Obama on November 6.

[dallasnew]

06:56 PM on 04/24/2012

I really wouldn't want to be running for reelection as POTUS after the last three plus years. We'll have to wait and see what happens, but my gut tells me that unless the economy really ticks up or something unforeseen happens we might be looking at a President Elect Romney in November.

[Pastori Balele]

02:24 AM on 04/25/2012

Read USA today. The economy is heating up. People are now eating out more than last year. People are buying more cars and homes than last year. Romney is done. After all he does not want to release his other tax returns. News people are going to beat him on his tax returns until he bails out as GOP nominee. No sane American will vote for Romney who created jobs for Swiss and Chinese leaving people here on welfare. Sorry Romney we don't need your money now. Let's vote for President Obama on November 6.

[bigmama1744]

06:22 PM on 04/24/2012

as soon as the first debate airs, we will see that Obama is articulate and Romney is anything but. He seems like a cardboard cutout of a man and has no way to inspire enthusiasm with anyone outside his party.

[kasv]

05:51 AM on 04/25/2012

I have many reasons based on facts to vote for Pres Obama over Mitt Romney. The least of those reasons is that I couldn't stand four years of hearing, again, that fake laugh at the end of what romney thinks is an amusing thing to say. If you isolate it and compare it to w's fake laugh, you can't tell the difference. Petty, I know. But still....

[jon96boy]

05:30 PM on 05/01/2012

Cut the BS, anybody can read off of a piece of paper, perfect example is Obama, he knows how to talk and make it sound good, but take away his prompts and he is a terrible speech giver.
Watching him try to talk off of memory and not using a prewritten speech is sad. A terrible speaker if he doesn't have a writer.

[annyp]

04:17 PM on 04/24/2012

These guys high five when there is a scandal like the SS. Distracts from their motives as people get caught up in all the gossip of whatever is happening at the time. Similar to the impeachment of Bill Clinton, Newt was busy with the "other" woman, but no one noticed.

The economy is picking up. Here are some numbers and a link.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

And here is the GDP record:

2008, GDP:
Q1: -1.8%
Q2: 1.3% (Bush - stimulus of $152 billion, remember $600 to tax filers)
Q3: -3.7%
Q4: -8.9% (worst quarterly GDP in US history)

2009, GDP:
Q1: -6.7% Obama takes office and passes stimulus 1/3 through 1st QTR)
Q2: -.7%
Q3: 1.7%
Q4: 3.8%

2010, GDP:
Q1: 3.9%
Q2: 3.8%
Q3: 2.5%
Q4: 2.3% Repubs win House.

2011, GDP:
Q1: 1.5% Repubs now run House and block everthing.
Q2: 1.3% Cause credit problems
Q3: 1.8%
Q4: 3.0% Obama gives up working with Repubs.

[Greenfoam]

02:55 AM on 04/26/2012

Yes I see, 2010 Q4 Repubs win house, take control 2011 Q1 and after only 2 quarters they reverse 5 quarters of decline! See, you can spin numbers any way you want them! I believe reality, when my family members are employed again with plenty of work and when the industry I work in see it's turn around. Wether it is Obama or Romney I don't care, we need leadership in this country and I have a hard time seeing it from either one.

[annyp]

06:21 PM on 04/26/2012

I am not spinning the numbers, these are the facts. You should know that when companies downsize they never hire people back again. I worked for 2 companies that did it. I never lost my job, but had to pick up the extra work with no extra pay. These guys have no plan of giving up their big profits anytime soon. Hopefully where you work, it turns around soon. Is it possible for you to move elsewhere in the country where work is available?

[Cleo Creech]

03:16 PM on 04/24/2012

Of course, Romney is in the news, he's wrapping up the nomination - he's on a bit of a roll. Obama on the other hand is going about the rather unglamorous business of running the country. Obama is about to wrap up the democratic nomination - but is that even news?

Wait until we're in the general election, wait until Obama has crucified Romney in a few debates. Wait until the ads hit.

[Xenobion]

12:54 PM on 04/24/2012

Romney's national trending is only coming out of support of those who backed santorum/gingrich. The inevitable nominee has solidified his base, but there's no more trend than where Romney was before Iowa. His favorables are still underwater and we all know this is an electoral game in which Romney has too many moves to make to win the chess board. He is the John Kerry of the Republican Party.

[Just logic]

09:27 AM on 04/24/2012

Who really cares. They are the same person working for the same people. Our problems will only get worse under either of their leadership. So folks stock up on guns, ammo, food and water. Because I fear the American experiment is over.