For myriad reasons, the last 48 hours in the Gulf have dealt a devastating blow to the political fortune of the Obama administration. The impact of recent events in that region will certainly be felt in November and perhaps even in 2012. And while the Israeli raid on ships carrying Palestinian activists is getting some attention, the spill is still the biggest story in America this morning.
Not every event or issue has an electoral effect, but our sense is that the Gulf oil spill will. Here is our up-to-the-minute take on events in the Gulf and our assessment of the political implications. As always, while the Gulf oil spill will have an enormously negative impact on wildlife and peoples' livelihoods, our focus is on the political and public relations elements of the catastrophe.
- We're now more than 40 days in, and the White House has finally gone into full crisis mode. Last week the President addressed the spill in a press conference and travelled to the region. He took responsibility for virtually everything under the sun. That seemed like the right strategic move until, of course, "top-kill" failed. Now it may prove to be problematic as voters begin to look for somewhere to place blame.
a.April 20th the oil rig Deepwater Horizon explodes.
b.April 24th oil is found leaking from the well.
c.April 29th Obama speaks publicly for the first time about the spill in the Rose Garden.
d.May 2nd Obama visits the Gulf to inspect response operations.
e.May 28th Obama holds an hour long press conference on the spill.
f.May 29th Obama visits the Gulf again.
It was nine days after the explosion--and five days after the world knew that the well was spewing oil--before the President spoke about the issue. And he didn't travel to the Gulf until 12 days after the explosion. It was more than a month before Obama held a full news conference to answer questions on the crisis. There is no doubt that the White House underestimated and underplayed the incident for its first few weeks. The result was the prevailing impression that Obama was disengaged. Of course, it is possible that Obama may be able to correct this impression.
At this point in time, voter attitudes toward the President's handling of the Gulf oil spill are mixed. The following chart shows voter evaluation of Bush's handling of Katrina thirty days after the hurricane and reactions to Obama's handling of the spill in a comparable time frame.
As you can see, the Gallup poll in particular suggests that voters are starting to view the President's handling of the spill in a negative light. The coming days will be critical in terms of cementing or reversing this opinion.