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How John McCain Still Can Win
How John McCain Still Can Win
By Steven Hill
Obama is in the lead, both nationally and in some very key battleground states. This election is his to lose. But elections can be surprising affairs. Let's ask a question: What combination of factors would need to occur for Obama to lose? And how realistic is that scenario?
Here are some important factors to keep in mind.
1. You can't trust the polls. We have seen too many examples in the past when the polls were misleading. When you have "national" polls purporting to show that Obama has a lead in one poll of 12 points and in another poll of two points, that tells you something is off. So much for the "science" of polling. When I see a poll that tells me they have a margin of error of 3.5%, I double that. A poll with a seven percent margin of error is only good for giving you some indication of general trends, nothing more.
2. Undecided voters. In recent presidential elections, the undecided voters have broken for the Republican candidate. And a recent poll from the Associated Press found that 1 in 7 voters are still undecided. Assuming this poll is accurate, that's a lot of undecided voters, about 18 million. If the undecided voters break for McCain 60% to 40%, that's a pick up of 3.6 million voters for McCain. If spread across the right battleground states, that could translate into a McCain victory.
3. "Invisible" voters. On both sides, we keep hearing about all these "invisible" voters who will turn out for them. On the Obama side, a lot of young voters supposedly are going to vote this time -- but we have heard that before. Then supposedly there are a lot of newly registered minority voters. But African-American voters have voted at nearly the same percentage as whites, so there might not be much potential there for an increase. Latino and Asian voters might increase some, but those populations don't necessarily identify closely with a black candidate. So let's make a modest assumption that there will be some increase, but not the tsunami that some are predicting.
On the Republican side, the invisible voters would be not only those undecided voters who break late for McCain, but also those who are part of the notorious "Bradley effect," i.e. white voters who won't vote for a black candidate yet don't show up in the polls that way. Polls have found that a fair number of Americans will not vote for a black candidate, so we can assume some degree of a Bradley effect, but how much? No one really knows.
So let's say that, on the whole, these two pools of invisible voters cancel each other out. We don't know ultimately how these factors will play, but erring on the side of caution, let's say it's a wash.
4. The winning Republican playbook. The McCain campaign is using the same Republican campaign plan that has been successful in winning presidential elections since Nixon. That involves attacking the Democratic candidate as a tax-and-spend, big government liberal who is un-American, is a socialist and a pal of terrorists who is not part of the cultural fabric of mainstream America.
The common wisdom is that the Republican template is not working this year due to the economic crisis, which is widely blamed on the incumbent party. On the other hand, if so many voters are still undecided at this point in the election, then clearly there is something about Obama and the Democrats that make them uncomfortable. Something about Obama/Democrats has not allowed them to close the deal on this election. So the McCain strategy of slowly chipping away at Obama's lead using the same old Republican playbook may pay off yet in these last few days, as it has worked previously with the undecideds.
5. Disqualified voters. Around the country, tens of thousands of registered voters have been purged, many of them through no fault of their own but due to clerical errors which have caused a mismatch in their name in various state databases. The evidence indicates that most of these voters are probably Obama supporters, so the Obama advantage in new registrants may be muted.
Also, like in past elections the Republicans are doing everything they can to disqualify Democratic voters. They are preparing to challenge certain types of voters at the polls, even possibly challenging voters who have lost their home mortgages and had to change addresses, making their voter registration invalid. There are reports of letters being mailed to minority voters warning them of possible arrest if they try to vote and have any outstanding traffic violations. No one knows how effective or widespread these efforts will be.
6. Defective voting equipment and poor election administration. We already are hearing stories from around the country about problems with voting equipment. One problem has been "vote flipping" on touchscreen voting equipment that lacks a voter verified paper trail -- a voter selects one candidate and the machine picks another candidate for them. This probably results from lousy voting equipment rather than some conspiracy to steal an election, yet it's really odd that all the anecdotes seem to indicate that it's usually a Democratic vote that gets flipped to the Republican candidate.
Also, remember the "butterfly ballot" in Florida in 2000, which caused thousands of voters to select the wrong candidate? In 2004, no one anticipated there would be so few pieces of voting equipment in university precincts and black precincts in Ohio, causing extremely long lines and people to go home frustrated without voting. What election administration snafus await us in this election? Nobody knows.
OK, so let's add up our six factors. All the polls show Obama with a lead, but with polls having a mixed track record, we don't really know how sizable. Meanwhile, there seem to be a fair number of undecided voters who historically have broken for the Republican candidate. The Democratic candidate is African-American with a known Bradley effect out there, though the impact is difficult to quantify. There are unknown questions lingering about defective voting equipment, faulty election administration, purged voters, and Republican attempts to disqualify Democratic voters. What will be their impact, ultimately, on vote totals?
Given all these factors, is there a plausible scenario in which McCain could win? I would say yes, absolutely. Perhaps not likely, but certainly plausible. There is also a plausible scenario in which Obama wins handily. The truth is, there are too many moving parts in this election to know for sure. But if all the above factors line up just the right way, the nation could be in for a shock on Election Night.
As former President Bill Clinton once said, "The paranoid win elections." And now we know why.
Steven Hill is director of the Political Reform Program of the New America Foundation, and author of "10 Steps to Repair American Democracy" (www.10Steps.net)
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All of those are good points...thanks for making me more depressed and scared, lol.
Anyway, is there anything like a reverse Bradley effect? I'm about as while as you can get, and Obama's being black is actually a positive to me, because I think we need change, not just in how the government is run, but in how we percieve ourselves and are percieved by the rest of the world. We are a multi-colored nation with many nationalitites and cultures, and our leaders should reflect that, rather than being a nearly endless line of old white guys.
I know a lot of other people who feel the same. My hubby calls him Double O-bama (cause he thinks he's smart and charasmatic, in a good way, like Sean Connery).
On another note, there is a good point here. Look what has to happen to get a non-old-white guy into office? The economy in near ruin, disasterous wars, international dislike bordering on hatred, the WORST president/vp ever in office,etc etc etc. It took all of this to give Obama a chance. And still 42% or so of Americans are going to vote for McSame.
What does that say about the xenophopia of America? It makes me ashamed, it really does.
Every day I go through my hope/fear cycle with Obama. I hope he wins, I fear it will be stolen from him.
He inspires so much hope though. I hope.....
Obama/Biden '08!
This election is more about just who wins the oval office. The world is watching. It is really about modern moral trends, if that is a possible scenario. Hill is right on most of the possible trends mentioned: you cannot trust polls because it's within peoples minds where decisions are made, not what they tell pollsters. Many are undecided because the moral questions about what is "right" and good, vs. "go with greed," i.e., the worry of certain red voters about their perceived threatened fortunes by the blue party. These deep and "invisible " questions are still being harbored by the undecided. The winning red playbook has worked before, why not go for the greed again?! I don't believe the argument about voter disqualification and defective equipment; these have been shown to be a "red herring." So, what it comes down to is this: Are we as a human race ready to make a big paradigm shift away from the politics of greed to what...a new order of things where care and decency and inspired rhetoric and doing/practicing what is "right" triumphs. That's the problem that the undecided are facing, and Obama and McC have given them a clear choice. If Hill's worries play out, it will mean that once again we are not ready to face these deep and very human issues: greed vs. good. The polls deny his worry; let's hope it is unfounded.
The question shouldn't be can JMC still win....it should be does he DESERVE to win and the answer to that is a big fat NO! He's ran a sleazy campaign, further divided the country and created a racial divide that's sure to last a century!
I'm working as a poll runner in South Carolina Tuesday. Across the nation we still need runners, watchers, canvassers, drivers, etc. The GOTV effort is what will ensure a win. When you go to vote, if you haven't already, bring extra folding chairs, bottles of water, ponchos (if it's raining), anything you can think of to help people wait out the long lines. If only 600 people had stayed in line in Florida in 2000, the whole world would be a different place.
Fight back on a very personal level at your precinct. Be cool, be calm, be nice, and help Barack's supporters make sure their votes are counted. If you notice any problems, call the legal hotline. There is one in every state and teams of lawyers are on call to come to the polls if there are problems. If the machines at your precinct break down, ask for paper ballots. If they don't have any, call the hotline and they will get them there. This is the best organised campaign in history, but we are all a part of it and it can't function without all of us.
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!!!!
If you knew your man McCain was going to lose, would you still send money?
Would you be ready to stand in line for five hours this Tuesday to vote?
If you know he doesn't stand a chance, how much of your time are you willing to spend on voting?
The National Republican Committee and many state Republican organizations will be at the polling places to delay the vote with challenges and other disruptions.
Their strategy is to make the wait so long that people simply walk away.
For McCain supporters this means a painful experience, and for naught.
In fact, many of them are likely to be the first to go home rather than tolerate hours on their feet, waiting...
As for the Obama supporters, it would appear that nothing short of a nuclear attack is going to keep them from voting. But judge for yourself who is the most likely to head home or stick it out and vote.....
http://www.thedailypage.com/daily/article.php?article=24082 .......
http://www.thedailypage.com/daily/article.php?article=24137 ......
If you know your ticket of McCain/Palin will lose, why bother?
Agreed, KatieMN. I can't even sleep I'm so worried for all of us -- my children in particular. It is beyond me how anyone can be undecided at this point. I hate to say this, but I really believe that if Obama were all white (everyone seems to forget that he is bi-racial, not all black), this would be a done deal. I like to believe that we have evolved somewhat over the centuries, but there really seems to be so much racism out there. I heard on CNN that in some states, upwards of 20% of DEMOCRATS won't vote for Obama because they associate blacks with violence!! Can you believe this? What about all of the violent white guys running the government who have us in not one but TWO wars? And let's not even get into how many people are injured or killed by white collar or corporate crime vs blue collar or street crime every year. Sometimes I really wonder just how primitive we really are -- still. PLEASE VOTE -- I need to sleep!!!!! ;-)
Just as an after/overthought: This is one of the best campaign structures ever. There are thousands of lawyers/law students on the ground waiting to defend the vote. Court decisions (as in CO) are going our way (Obama's way--not sure where you stand)- It seems true that disqualifying voters is still rampant, but they're being stifled at least a little, and let's hope the Obama campaign is working on-and every time I think I'm smarter than they are, they prove me wrong by anticipating just what I'm thinking--so let's hope and I imagine they are working on getting the correct info out thru their grapevine.
I don't think it's this bad, and I'm the world's biggest pessimist--but I admit I really want this to go our way.
#6, combined with other factors, may be a possibility. We've seen "stealing" before.
These are not profound observations - most of these points say is *possible*, but improbable that McCain will win, with one very important exception:
The idea that vote flipping "probably results from lousy voting equipment rather than some conspiracy to steal an election" is truly laughable. Touch screen technology is well over 30 years old, and there is simply no way that any sort of alignment problem or other defect could conceivably cause the vote flipping that has been documented. *Every* time it happens it should be assumed to be criminal vote tampering until proven otherwise.
forget the "bradley" effect, focus on the BLACKWELL effect.
These articles are all the same. They site all the problems that occurred in the last two elections and completely ignore the changes in the electorate from the last two elections. You also ignore the differences in the candidates from the last two elections. The election is not in the bag for either candidate. And the Obama campaign is not letting up. I for one, am not doing the celebration dance until one or more channels calls the election, but when you guys throw out these "McCain can still win" articles, it is only fair that you include all factors and not just cherry pick. What I know is this: McCain Can Still Win Because He Is Still In The Race!
Barack should be getting more passionate, more vociferous, right now.
Why is McCain on SNL and not Barack. Wasn't Mr. Obama scheduled. The dems prevent defense is infuriating.
He needs to come out and say..." America, if you elect John McCain instead of me, what are you going to do November fifth. And the day King George hands his throne over to his successor? You'll have four more years to wait, complaining things are as they ever were, unchanging, tilted in favor of the wealthiest individuals in this country. We've surrounded the Bastille, and have the villains in hand...and now you want to let them off the hook. And not only that, relinquish power to them for another term?"
If not now, America, when?
are you for real?
Sick of this story already! Tired of the Bradley effect, what undecideds, whites, women, independents or anyone with a brain will do! I'm just ready to vote already! BTW, If JMc wins this country is in deep $hyt!
I wish I hadn't read that. I am worried enough as it is. Please, please, please don't let this one slip away, not this time, it's too important. VOTE!!
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