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Six Reasons American Political Polarization Will Only Get Worse

Posted: 10/14/2012 4:23 pm

Welcome to the world of dysfunctional Belief Communities.

"Americans ... values and basic beliefs are more polarized along partisan lines than at any point in the past 25 years." (Pew Research)

Pundits bemoan this polarization, and await a leader who'll cut the Gordian knot of gridlock politics to deliver us to a bi-partisan nirvana. The pundits will have a long wait.

America's current hyper-partisanship stems from a perfect storm of factors (described below). And it's created Belief Communities -- where people who want to believe patently untrue things (e.g., that President Obama was born in Kenya) are never challenged in their beliefs, and may even be encouraged in their fantasies.

Let's examine the causes of American political polarization.

1. Confirmation Bias and Weak Feedback Loops:

"When Democrats and Republicans see the same presidential debate on television, both sets of viewers claim that the facts clearly show that their candidate was the winner." (Daniel Gilbert)

We believe what we want to believe, and we selectively filter out information contradicting our preferences (this is called Confirmation Bias). Convincing us of something we don't want to believe requires: (i) repeated challenge and reinforcement with contradictory information, or (ii) strong immediate feedback loops (e.g., 99.99% of Americans believe a green light means 'go' and a red light means 'stop' because acting contrary to that belief causes car crashes). Unfortunately, many issues about which citizens are most detached from reality have weak feedback loops.

2. Changing Economics of the Media Industry:

Confirmation Bias was less of an issue in the 1960s, when Americans got their news from one of three TV networks, and local newspapers were often a monopoly. National TV was regulated and subject to licensing, and networks could lose their licenses for biased or inaccurate reporting. Under these conditions, news wasn't targeted to distinct Belief Communities. Instead, news providers tried to create a common narrative on current events. With the arrival of cable and the web, news media became more like the cereal business -- with different brands targeted at different segments. Through targeting and segmenting, people are told what they want to hear, about topics with non-immediate feedback loops (e.g., basic science and public policy). Fox News is the network of choice for the Right, and many smaller channels/websites are even more micro-targeted, all of which exacerbates the Confirmation Bias problem.

3. Filter Bubbles: Google/Facebook know whether you're a liberal, conservative, birther, believer in ghosts or whatever -- and your information is tailored to reinforce what you already believe.

4. Ideologically Safe Congressional Seats:

About 80% of all Congressional Districts are solidly Democratic or Republican. We have bipartisan agreement on one issue -- politicians prefer safe Congressional seats, which sometimes happens naturally, but also because politicians use redistricting to create them. Instead of engaging with challengers from the other party, most members of Congress now engage only with challengers within their own party -- Democrats with their Left, and Republicans with their Right. Bipartisan compromise becomes a dirty word, as a consequence.

5. Advocacy Industry Expansion:

Over the past generation, we've seen the rise of special interest groups, often narrowly focused on a single issue. The National Rifle Association, for example, spends $250 million/year fighting gun control. These advocacy groups employ a small army of people at high wages (the head of the NRA is paid $1 million/year). Institutionally, the NRA has every incentive to find new battlegrounds to justify its existence. Replicate this incentivized self-interest for all sorts of narrow issues, mix in even greater ability to raise funds due to Citizen's United -- and you have a formula for polarization.

6. Lack of a Shared Context:

The post-WW II era of bi-partisanship (from the 1940s-1970s) was characterized by a shared context. Americans experienced some combination of: WW I, the Great Depression (25% unemployment rate), and WW II (requiring every healthy draft-age male to serve, with no college deferments). After WW II, Americans all faced the shared challenge of the Cold War. Today, despite a U.S. at war for the past 10 years, fewer than 1% of Americans have served in Afghanistan or Iraq. Neither Romney nor Obama has done military service, and few of their relatives and friends have either. (Note: President Clinton, President Bush, and Governor Romney all had children of appropriate age for military service, but none of them has served.)

We can begin to break the polarization cycle with: (i) Stronger public finance for political campaigns to reduce the power of special interest groups; (ii) Discouraging ideologically pure Congressional districts thereby forcing Congressmen to appeal to moderates; (iii) Setting limitations on algorithmic filtering of news; and (iv) Engaging Americans in a shared narrative/experience (e.g., requiring mandatory community service for all high school graduates).

Otherwise, welcome to the new normal. And without serious reform, things will only get worse

Steven Strauss was founding Managing Director of the Center for Economic Transformation at the New York City Economic Development Corporation (NYCEDC). He is a 2012 Advanced Leadership Fellow at Harvard University. He has a Ph.D. in Management from Yale University and over 20 years' private sector work experience. Join over 4,000 other concerned citizens by following him on Twitter @Steven_Strauss, or on Facebook.

 

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Welcome to the world of dysfunctional Belief Communities. "Americans ... values and basic beliefs are more polarized along partisan lines than at any point in the past 25 years." (Pew Research) Pund...
Welcome to the world of dysfunctional Belief Communities. "Americans ... values and basic beliefs are more polarized along partisan lines than at any point in the past 25 years." (Pew Research) Pund...
 
 
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12:48 AM on 11/27/2012
Great article, and all good points, but were the little pot shots at conservatives really necessary? It's not like they added any substance to the article, and they seem particularly unnecessary given the topic. I'm all for illustrating your points with examples, but acting like conservatives are the only ones with "misguided" beliefs is ridiculous. One of the big contributors to polarization are people on BOTH sides believing that their way is the right way, and people on the other side are ignorant, immoral, greedy, corrupt, etc. If we want to get serious about making the country less polarized, then liberals and conservatives are going to have to get over this idea that they, and they alone, reside on the ethical and intellectual high ground. My guess is that this mere suggestion will seem ridiculous to many, if not most, of the people who read this, which is why I'm not overly optimistic that this will happen.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
frank1946
Tell the Truth
10:09 PM on 10/16/2012
Grow Rich from DEBT !

Less is More.

Take your Pick......................Life is a Beach and then you Swim for your Life !

1 % Growth is the end of the USA. 12 % Growth in DEBTcatches up with you.

Monetary Default is not Fun !
05:57 AM on 10/16/2012
The media
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jeremy Bursac
You're not the bossa nova me.
01:16 AM on 10/16/2012
A substantial minority of the US public "believes" the earth is under 10000 years old.

I don't see the necessity of reaching for these abstract, theoretical mechanisms to explain polarization - some people are simply daft. At best.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Steven Strauss
02:52 PM on 10/16/2012
Thank you for commenting, and yes that is certainly an alternate hypothesis :-)
08:34 PM on 10/28/2012
While they may not be familiar with certain sciences, that doesn't mean they couldn't run circles around you in other fields of work and expertise
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Jeremy Bursac
You're not the bossa nova me.
01:06 AM on 10/29/2012
Like quoting scripture?

In translation, of course, since they don't read Greek, Aramaic or Hebrew, and so have no idea what it actually says.

(People who "believe" the earth is under 10000 years old will not be running circles around sane people, although there are many opportunities and ways for such anti rational people to obtain success in this society.)
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
CarryOn
no matter where you go, there you are
08:20 PM on 10/15/2012
point 7: peppering political discourse with US v. Them euphemisms ; thereby inciting apocalyptic fear should the other side gain the advantage.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
garymc8
We got OBL- not gop
07:26 PM on 10/15/2012
Iceland thru the greedy dishonest bankers in jail, bailed outbthe PEOPLE. Their economy is thriving now. We need to do the same
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BOBinPS
Really?
06:56 PM on 10/15/2012
The New Deal and the rise of unions didn't happen just because of the Depression. At that time, the socialist and communist parties had a large presence in the US because of the populist response to the robber barons (and pro-socialist immigrants and a successful alliance with communists during WWII). Roosevelt was part of the wealthy but convinced his rich cronies that that they had a choice between unions and the new deal, or anarchy. They bought it. Why do you think the GOP has continued to think the worst they can accuse someone of is socialism? Nothing is going to change in this country without a strong populist alternative to crony capitalism. That the country is even considering a plutocrat like Romney is a really bad sign that this will not be soon coming.
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MacTheCat
Those Clouds You See Aren't really clouds at all
04:14 PM on 10/15/2012
Convincing us that the 'two party system' adversarial is working, albeit poorly, keeps us in our separate camps, fighting amongst ourselves over petty manufactured issues while Wall Street continues its assault on not just our economy and the accumulation of wealth, but the assault on our rights, freedoms and the Constitution that is all that stands between us and the fate of Germany in 1930.
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MacTheCat
Those Clouds You See Aren't really clouds at all
04:14 PM on 10/15/2012
Six Reasons American Political Polarization Will Only Get Worse--

Here's a seventh and I believe, the most correct one: Divide and conquer politics plays into the hands of the Plutocracy that really rules this country.
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Dave F
Former Republican. Liberal = liberty.
04:13 PM on 10/16/2012
Bingo - that's it. Polls I saw (admittedly, some time back) indicating that even large majorities in the Tea Party were against the huge amounts of money in the political system demonstrates that large majorities of Americans have some causes we could team up on. But we're constantly split off from our areas of agreement by monied interests who ensure that politicians will never, ever vote for the things we all CAN agree on, and want.
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MacTheCat
Those Clouds You See Aren't really clouds at all
04:54 PM on 10/16/2012
The only reason we have the patriot act is that the plutocrats fear us more than any single thing in the world.
04:02 PM on 10/15/2012
Compared to truth everything else is but incremental, reaching somewhat the density of background noise. Which is as it should be.

Compare "Bi-partisanship" to Truth... and ends up one wanting truth, first.

No more more distractions is what I say...


Glass Steagall.





.
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carljr
03:51 PM on 10/15/2012
Interesting article. Lately I've asking Romney supporters what Mitt Romney's three greatest accomplishments are in public life. The totality of his public life were the 33 months (subtracting the the 417 days he was out of Massachuetts starting the Prez run), Even as a candidate, he's currently 1 for 3 with the governorship being his only win.

No one who supports Romney can even remember to tell me that he did Romneycare much less anything else. What they continue to tell me is that "Mitt Romney gets things done." They continue to insist on this in spite of the fact that his tenure as governor is a total zero to them. Then. of course, they start talking about his business experience but when pressed with the same question logic about Bain can't state a single achievement in this area either.

They never have any trouble rattling off the President's achievements albeit they relate to them negatively. So they actually know much about the Obama Administration and nothing about the guy they intend to vote for. The negative analysis may be a rationale for their vote but the emptiness of their understanding of their guy bothers me. I'd like to think they're voting for more than good hair and a tan.

Confirmation bias at its best. Absent a challenging, accurate media tomorrow's debate will be no different and both sides will emerge with their spin narratives intact. Sad when you think about it.
02:51 PM on 10/15/2012
The root of confrontational, polarized politics in American government can be found in:

"Conservatives without Conscience" and "Broken Government", both by John Dean (Nixon's WH Counsel).

Read and weep.
02:46 PM on 10/15/2012
Interesting analysis. Your offered remedies even more interesting..
04:56 PM on 10/15/2012
Curious as how you define interesting in this context.
02:41 PM on 10/15/2012
Bravo...this piece should be must reading for every college student and most high school students but I guess they don't teach civics anymore...any thinking person must look at the modern trends of society towards diversity among all things and see a party on a houseboat floating down a river heading for a waterfall...at my age 80 maybe I will miss it but I fear my kids will not...the history of nations shows repeated rises and falls attributed to various causes but at bottom it must all be God's will or it would be different...not the god of the Bible or Koran but the generator, operator, destroyer..G.O.D...get it/?? this is heresy to religious but all reformations begin that way...google Theofatalism to learn who really is in control...
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JohnnyWalkerBlueLabel
527HP, 12.3@111mph 1/4 mile. 2%er going for 1%
02:23 PM on 10/15/2012
Item 2 above fails to mention that HP is targeted strictly to liberals. Talk about confirmation bias and weak feedback loops.