Why I'm Bullish on Sarah Palin's Prospects
The day Sarah Palin announced her resignation as Alaska governor, I wrote a post speculating on whether there was anyone who could stop her from getting the Republican nomination. (Answer: Huckabee). I was surprised to see that most of the subsequent commentary was not on whether she was a lock for the nomination or merely the frontrunner but rather whether her political career was destroyed or merely grievously wounded.
Why am I so much more bullish on Palin than most pundits?
The sources of her appeal remain undiminished. Her popularity never came from her track record as governor, so failure to finish the term won't matter that much to her supporters. She's beloved largely because of who she is and what she's accomplished as a person not what she's accomplished as a governor. The most important fact for the religious conservatives who love her remains that she gave birth to a baby with downs syndrome rather than opting for an abortion. Everything else pales in comparison. She's viewed as a pro-life politician who practices what she preaches. Each conservative politician who ends up caught in the men's room with a male prostitute or in Argentina with a soul mate, only makes Palin's authenticity more powerful.
And Palin is aware of the political importance, saying that the birth of Trig allowed her to "walk the walk" in her pro-life views. "I feel so privileged and blessed to be, I guess, chosen to have Trig in our life," she told James Dobson, "because I do want to help us in in our cause here."
She wears Christian protective armor. She uses every attack on her as proof that someone is out to get her and in fact many Christians believe that anti-Palin bias is anti-Christian bias. Like some superhero with special powers, the more she's attacked the stronger she becomes.
Religoius conservatives will be as important if not more so in the 2012 Republican primaries. Evangelicals accounted for a bigger percentage of John McCain's general election vote than of George Bush's meaning that these voters have become a more central part of the party coalition. Two of the three early states (Iowa and South Carolina) have large evangelical populations, the third (New Hampshire) liking "mavericky" types.
IOU Collection Machine. The most important advantage for Palin is the most simple: she can travel. She'll be sought after to raise money and campaign for Republican candidates around the country. The more she does, the more IOUs she collects. Within two years, she'll go from a popular outsider, to a woman with a lot of friends.
Her behavior since the election has not positioned her well with independents or for a general election. But politicians like her usually focus on the nomination first, and viewed through that prism, her decision to resign is neutral to positive for her.
More from Beliefnet's Steven Waldman here
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
Last One Standing for POTUS!
Why are you so much more bullish.... on Ms. Palin? I am pretty sure it is because you believe that, her "personal authenticity" trumps her intellectual capability for the role any day!
The capability of the GOPS whose humanity caused them and their party some recent embarrassment would truly exclude them from leadership even though they are most intellectually qualified?
Please do remember that the POTUS whoever he/she is; is the leader of the US and the free world, not just the US.
Can you even imagine the global pandemonium? Mr. Waldman, I truly hope that you have come to understand that the position of POTUS cannot be fully served by inspiring bullishness alone. That combination has just and would not be sufficient.
". . . . She uses every attack on her as proof that someone is out to get her . . . ."
Which doesn't make that TRUE, of course.
But in the REALITY-based world that is termed PARANOIA.
Or at very least "entitled irresponsibility".
Let's talk about "perfection," okay? Palin isn't perfect, therefore her judgment isn't perfect, therefore she cannot be right in all instances: SOME of those attacks are TRUE and DESERVED -- beginning with the fact that she -- and no one else -- has shown HERSELF that she isn't competent to hold public office.
That the far-right America-hating lunatic fringe religionut fanatics REFUSE to "get it" will continue to keep you all frothing at the mouth over that which is (1) irrelevant, at best, and (2) none of your business. Will keep you rightly at the far-flung fringe and just outside the door of the asylum whining and begging to be let in and locked up.
"BeliefNet"? That's about far-right lunatic fringe religionutist fanaticism which REFUSES to LEARN, correct?
From McCain's camp -- McCain being a REPUBLICAN -- Palin was described as "not very bright" and "lazy". And she REFUSED to learn.
Defending hateful intolerance, ignorance, and rejection of learning and reason, does NOTHING to LIE Palin in to competence for more than being a (washed-up) beauty pageant contestant.
But that's what you WANT, eh? -- stupidity preaching "'God' wants you to be STUPID and HATEFUL" to the stupid.
Do yourself a favor: go away. Or continue to embarrass yourself by defending the far-right lunatic fringe religionuts whose only achievements in life are ignorance, and steel-doored closed mind against even the least mote of learning.
J-tell me...does one need to be a Harvard Law grad to decimate our economy even further then Bush and the Congressional Dems did? Does one even need to go to Harvard to learn how many States are in the Union, or to determine at what "pay grade" one needs to be at, to acknowledge when life begins? Does one need to be a Constitutional lawyer to know how a POTUS can fire a CEO of a private corp., or put the UAW ahead of bond holders in a bankruptcy? Considering that the last 2-3 POTUS did drugs in their youth, is that now a prerequisite for determining "intelligence" by your criteria? Does a high IQ give a pass to a Prez that in only 6 months, spends more money then ALL previous Presidents combined? Just wondering...And oh...btw...McCain's camp has proven themselves now to be irrelevant, as they tried to blame Palin for their own misgivings....soon...this will all be exposed.
Hey-- there's a cute charming lady across the hall from me right now-- Am I going to vote for her for LEADER OF THE FREE WORLD????-- THE MOST POWERFUL POST IN ANY GOV'T?????? NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO-NO--- THOUSAND TIMES NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Sarah Palin is a ridiculously stupid running joke that only personifies her mystfied, moronic base!!! Trying to find a needle of reason in a HUGE pile of Elephant Cr@p screams of you jumping on a pathetic Palin bandwagon than anything to do with rational, critical reason. It's people like you that destroy this country----
Steven Waldman, all of $arah Palin's so-called qualifications/accomplishments that you list above would describe most any semi-educated matron in America.
Except that most of THEM have the insight and self-awareness to realize that their education and life experiences qualify them to perhaps serve as den mother, or volunteer in the local daycare, or serve as chaperone on a field trip -- er, scratch that one,if $arah Palin is involved -- a responsible chaperone she's NOT.
$arah Palin's sparse training as a fiscal conservative has led to an Alaska state health and welfare scandal, worse than any in any other state because it has deadly consequences.
In the 2-1/2 years she's held the title of governor (her own derisive description oin her "quit on Alaska" speech), 227 frail and elderly Alaskans have died due to state underfunding of staff and services overseeing their review of eligibility for care and the performance of that care.
The buck stops at the governor's desk for the state programs and agencies run by her appointees. She deserves not to be allowed to quit, but to be impeached and perhaps prosecuted for nonfeasance, misfeasance, and malfeasance.
http://www.adn.com/life/health/story/864670.html
Palin's is a personality, not a politician, and her prospects seem mixed, at best. She's a polarizing figure, popular with Republicans, unpopular with everybody else. Her political clout is limited to some admittedly important Republican primaries, where her role is spoiler to establishment Republican candidates. Her influence is much less in a National contest, and basically negative for the Republican Party. Palin mobilizes the Family Values base in Red States where it doesn't matter, but mobilizes her opponents in Purple/Blue states the GOP needs to gain traction . The Pros in the GOP want to win, or at least regrow, and have no incentive to back her. IOUs? Palin needs backing, she doesn't have deep pockets and in fund raising, you need to spend money to make money. Sarah can make some bucks on the rubber chicken circuit, and she might fly as an electronic pundit, but really those niches seem pretty full. Book deals, clothing line, motivational speaker, who knows, but all these options require investors (who will demand a lot of the take) plus lots of disciplined travel on her part. Founding a 3rd party doesn't seem a good way to get rich, but maybe Sarah can find a way.
I agree with you.
Palin has huge appeal to her base and the reasons for that are well understood and have been documented in this article and elsewhere. She has very strong chances of winning a Republican Primary.
As an Obama supporter I hope she wins. This would result in a landslide reelection (I see only Texas, not even Alaska, going for Palin Vs. Obama in 2012).
The solid Palin voter is only 20 - 30% of the electorate. Swing voters and moderates will be turned off by campain messages that "she quit on any responsibility ever placed her way - why would you trust her not to quit on the greatest responsibility of all?""
Palin would not gain any middle ground voters outside of her base; these would remain with Obama.
Palin's solid support is no more than 12-14 per cent of the electorate. And a percentage of those will, at the last minute, not vote.
I'd rather she act as spoiler, then run on the Palin People Party ticket in Nov. She is at least as effective in raising funds for the Democrats as she is for anybody else.
At the end of the month, Paling goes on Spring Break for 3 1/2 years.
woopidoo.
Prospects of what? POTUS or cheerleader?
Cheerleader fine, that's it.
Everyone knows that to win you have to swing the independants and moderates on the other side. Reagan did, Obaba did, Palin cannot even get the support of the moderates on her side. She is spent.
Sarah Palin is charismatic. She has and will always have a following. However, her followers do not truly listen to her words. They hear what they project on her. Especially on abortion. She admits that when she found she was pregnant with her latest child she agonized over her CHOICE to remain pregnant or to abort. When she found that the baby had Downs syndrome, she again agonized over her CHOICE to keep the child or to abort. She CHOSE to keep the baby. However, while she was CHOOSING, she argued that women should not be allowed to CHOOSE. She would take away from all women the CHOICE that she was given. Since she does not believe in CHOICE, why o why do her followers grant her such grace for having CHOSEN to carry a downs child? She and her followers do not see any problem with the logic of that argument. She CHOSE, and she wants to be granted credit for having CHOSEN, but she does not want to allow any other woman ever to be able to CHOOSE. Probably because some women might make the opposite CHOICE, she would rather be the last woman ever to be allowed to CHOOSE at all. And her followers, who admire her CHOICE, cannot see that their CHOICE to support her means that they themselves would never be allowed to CHOOSE to have a downs syndrome child.
When told she was carrying a Down Syndrome child, let's face it, Palin had a very high profile at the time. It wouldn't have been beneficial to her obsessive career path to have had an abortion. She took a big chance in becoming pregnant at her age. Lack of responsibility? However, everything she does is "orchestrated", too much of the time to discordant music. She will probably implode. I'm just sorry that we have to be exposed to her once again. I'd hoped she'd disappear.
That whole cross-country marathon after her water supposedly broke, if true, says one thing to me -- she was hoping to lose that baby.
I have been following Presidential politics 50. There has always been a tendency toward making this endeavor a "blood sport." Sad, but reality. I've watched as candidates right and left joined the fray and kept pressing toward the goals set. I watched as a candidate's personal integrity was attacked. I listened as families became fair game. I heard children being called "ugly." I winced when patriotism was challenged. Candidates pressed on.
I watched as basically the two party system articulated platform positions and real value issues. I paid attention as they debated and informed the public of issues that confront the country.
I spent time looking into the backgrounds of the candidates for high office. They had taken responsibility and had treated it seriously even when the going got tough.
Now, I watch as the media speculates gleefully as to whether ex-governor Palin will run for President. She does not have the background, except to dip her toe into various positions of responsibility and then decide that the water is too hot. I watched as she made some of the most outrageous accusations against opponents and "non-real Americans," and then she quit because others returned in kind. I listened as she strung together disconnected phrases and expected us to understand her incoherent message. I winced as she paraded out her family as political props and then began a media campaign if someone commented on the props.
This woman is not fit to serve. It's that simple.
"This woman is not fit to serve."
And, as we know, princesses, such as Palin, REFUSE to SERVE.
If people can believe in thin air they'll believe in Sarah's words. It doesn't matter if she's been caught being a hypocrite or misusing her power in office. In their eyes she's been "blessed." Touched by an angel, for all intents and purposes. She knows this and takes advantage of it. She plays the part better than an Oscar nominated actor. You can tell by the deer in the headlights look on her face. By her speech patterns and choice of words, as well. I wouldn't be surprised if Hollywood eventually creates a reality television series based around her life. She'd be a natural.
If you add a "t" to "bullish," you can move the I between the h and t to identify Palin's biggest accomplishment.
As I recall the office in question is "President of the UNITED States of America"
The most intimate political advisor for this individual for the last few decades is a card carrying Secessionist.
What will the slogan be? "Palin, because Secession is good for the Union"
I see what you mean about the _perception_ of the people who already like her and I think you are on point.
It is the politics of personality and has almost zero percent to do with any actuall qualifications to hold office -- they even overlook her obvious disregard for rape vicitms and special needs childrens' programs, and brutal, short-sighted treatment of wildlife in her policies as AK governor.
Based on that, your analysis that she could won two evangelical states adn a "mavericky" one first off is really, frighteningly credible.... but, as you say in your summary, this would be very likely to fall apart in the general election.
If Palin goes for and gets the repub nomination for 2012, the Repubs will become even more marginalized. We really need a viable 3rd party (and one NOT spearheaded by caribou barbie).
Run Sarah Run!!!!!We need the enterainment!!!!
Wishful thinking, Steven. Why do I get the feeling that a Palin-Huckabee ticket is something you are pining for??
Reading a little too much into fundamentalist christianity and fundamentalist catholicism on beliefnet, eh?
Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely ... Lord Acton
You must be logged in to comment. Log in or connect with
