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Stewart J. Lawrence

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Chris Christie: Destined to Disappoint?

Posted: 10/02/11 04:35 PM ET

New Jersey governor Chris Christie used to laugh when reporters asked him if he would consider running for president. "Are you kidding, don't I have enough problems already?" was his standard, self-deprecating reply. But of course, that was before the party's latest "messiah," Texas governor Rick Perry, began stumbling so badly. Now hold-out Republican donors who've been loathe to commit funds to the lackluster -- though improving -- candidacy of Mitt Romney are just as reluctant to back the "Second Coming" of George W. Bush. They're begging Christie to throw his hat into the ring, and the plucky 49-year-old governor, after months of saying, in effect, "thanks but no thanks," seems close to changing his mind.

Conservatives anxious to jump on the Christie bandwagon are in for a big surprise, though. That's assuming they look past Christie's pugnacious style -- including his highly publicized attacks on public sector unions -- and start examining his actual record. Exhibit A, perhaps, is immigration. Christie has publicly supported the Barack Obama-George W. Bush plan for comprehensive immigration reform, which places him squarely in the dreaded "amnesty" camp. In fact, on immigration at least, Christie's even to the "left" of Perry, who supports in-state tuition subsidies to illegal immigrants but says he won't back an "amnesty" program, even a partial one like the "DREAM" Act that wouldn't just provide illegal immigrant students with tuition subsidies but would actually grant them green cards.

And it's not just immigration. On gun control, gay civil unions, and cap-and-trade, issues on which Christie has expressed strong support since taking office just 20 months ago, he's as much out of step with the conservative Tea Party base as former Indiana governor Mitch Daniels was. Daniels came under fire from Christian conservatives, and beat a hasty retreat, eventually dropping out of the race altogether. Among the current crop of candidates, Christie's closest ideological soul mate could well be former Utah governor Jon Huntsman, who's been pegged -- and dismissed -- as a hopeless RINO (Republican in Name Only). Huntsman, who shares most of Christie's views, has struggled to gain traction as a GOP presidential candidate, even though he has impeccable pro-life credentials and a sterling record as a tax-cutter and jobs-creator.

And speaking of jobs creation, how will Christie, whose state is still plagued by an above-average jobless rate, hope to compete with Romney, Perry or even businessman Herman Cain? It's not Christie's fault, of course, that New Jersey's in such a deep hole, but at a time when the jobs issue trumps the deficit for most voters, and perhaps, even most Republicans, Christie will be hard pressed to distinguish himself. He's a compelling speaker, and he'll have no trouble convincing listeners that he means well. But with no past record of business success to match Romney's, for example, he'll be vulnerable on points, and may not fare well in future debates, which like Perry, it turns out, are not his forte.

So is Christie serious? At one level, he surely is. It's hard not to be flattered when a fawning horde of political donors and grassroots operatives keep appearing at your door, literally begging you to run. And there's probably nothing wrong with moving out of the "coquette" phase and actually taking a brief spin on the dance floor with your seducers. That probably accounts for the remarkable nature of his speech last week at, of all places, the venerable Ronald Reagan Library in California. Christie not only called out President Obama by name (disparaging him as nothing more than a Nero-like "bystander" to the nation's current economic crisis), he pointedly suggested that he was a better leader and "problem solver." And in a bid to portray himself as a statesman, and possible commander-in-chief, perhaps, he freely crossed over from domestic policy into foreign affairs -- a first for Christie, and another telltale sign that he's actually taking a bid seriously.

Like Sarah Palin, Christie probably has a couple of more weeks (at most) to bask in the media spotlight before a real decision must be made. And perhaps, like Palin, he'll end up exploiting his party's "messiah" complex to promote his name and his "brand," and position himself for 2016, or possibly as a VP candidate in 2012. Christie's clearly a comer, and assuming all goes reasonably well, he might one day become his party's standard-bearer, much like Reagan was. What he offers his party -- and indeed, the country, perhaps -- is a shot at building bridges with Democrats and forging tough and decidedly "conservative" bipartisan compromises, which could well move the GOP from the "party of no" into something resembling a dominant ruling party that once again commands genuine respect from voters.

If you doubt that a GOP formula of this kind could work -- or holds genuine voter appeal -- consider the latest Rasmussen poll. Christie, like Romney, is running even with Obama. But he has no campaign organization or staff, and hasn't really been vetted, certainly not in the context of a high-intensity presidential campaign, which at this late stage, makes him a risky choice.

There are skeletons in his closet, notably the role he played in attacking New Jersey's Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, but his chief shortcoming may simply be that the nominating process has already foreclosed candidates of his ilk, as the early withdrawal of Daniels, South Dakota Sen. John Thune, and former Florida governor Jeb Bush -- as well as the continuing reluctance of former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani to commit -- all seem to indicate.

Some have suggested that Christie, weighing in the neighborhood of 300 pounds or more, may simply be too "fat" to be president, just as Daniels, at 5'7", was deemed to be too short. But the real problem isn't Christie's girth -- if it were, he'd never been so resoundingly elected -- but the out-sized hopes and distorted expectations of those so eagerly cheering him on.

 
 
 
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09:32 PM on 10/03/2011
Damnit, Chris Christie would have been the first Republican candidate to actually have the same size and build as the Republican symbol..
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snesich
06:13 PM on 10/03/2011
So why are the Koch Brothers---and virtually all of the big energy interests---backing Christie so enthusiastically? Do they think that Christie is the “Horse They Can Ride” to get their agenda in the White House? And do they think that making him appear “moderate” and “sensible” is the first step in that process?

Are you part of that process, too, directly or indirectly, Stewart? Or is it just a coincidence that you wrote a column that the Koch Brothers, their PR and lobbying firms, and Christie himself, would be very happy with?

And how do you explain Christie vetoing a small tax increase on people making over one million a year? This tax would have reduced New Jersey's deficit---which, supposedly Christie is so concerned about---and it would have lowered taxes for all non-millionaires in the Garden State?

Can you tell us how and why a "moderate" who supposedly believes in "revenue increases" to balance governmental deficits, would veto what a majority of the legislature, and an overwhelming majority of citizens, supported?

Again, you bring up some good points in this piece. But could your pro-Christie bias be any more obvious? At least own up to it. We'd all respect you more if you did, Stewart.
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snesich
06:07 PM on 10/03/2011
Oh Stewart! While you raise some astute and cogent points, I have to say that this is one of the more shameless pro-Christie "puff pieces" I've ever read anywhere. Couldn't you be just a bit more subtle about it?

Nice try. But your attempt to make Chris Christie---an extreme conservative---somehow look "moderate" or "centrist" just won't wash.

Christie is not a "moderate" or a "centrist" or anything close. Where have you been?

Let's just take one of many examples: Global Warming. If he rejects the obtuse, industry-funded denial of global warming, then why did he withdraw New Jersey from cooperative efforts to reduce it? Ever hear of “Actions Speak Louder Than Words”?

Is Christie’s tactic of saying one thing---that is obviously designed to "moderate" his image, now that he's lusting after higher office---and doing another, when it comes to actual policy, acceptable in your book?

And if Christie really supports efforts to reduce global warming, then why did he meet privately with the Koch Brothers, who are the major funders for the denialist industry? Why did Christie let the Koch Brothers fly him out to California this summer, and why did he agree to be their headliner at the far-right wing weekend retreat for multi-millionaires and billionaires that the Koch Brothers funded and spearheaded? (And have you listened to the vile, extremist right-wing speech that Christie delivered that night? You should; it’s horrible.)
04:41 PM on 10/03/2011
lol, they are all the same, all bought and paid for lol.
web-anonymity.cz.tc
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Peter007
02:46 PM on 10/03/2011
Chris Christie political experience has been a loss for a state assemble seat and a loss in the Primary for a county Freeholder position.
He was a political appointee of George Bush as an attorney General.

Cristie should realize he is a media sound byte. The main stream media is looking for red meat and they are baiting Christie to enter their trap.
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deminmo
just looking for answers
02:32 PM on 10/03/2011
I would love to see a run for the nomination between Christie
and Perry! Put the two of them on stage for a debate. Maybe
Christie wouldn't make a good president, maybe he would. I
do like his "in your face" style, its great political theater.
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bknott
My Micro-bio is "empty".
01:38 PM on 10/03/2011
Conservatives had better get used to disappointment, if one of their new core "principles" is refusing to compromise. Welcome to democracy.
12:24 PM on 10/03/2011
There are skeletons in his closet: LIke being good friends with Roger Ailes and passing on Floorgraphics criminal complaint of News Corp electronic interception where News Corp paid off Floorgraphics with a $29.5 million "confidential settlement" of the civil case?
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Nosybear
Liar, damned liar and statistician
12:20 PM on 10/03/2011
Problem with a bankrupt ideology is that everyone who espouses it without fail is bankrupt as well. Christie is no different. Politicians aren't paid to be smart, they're paid to get votes and the only way you win a primary is to be extreme. Christie is extreme by default. Any attempt to paint that away will fail. All he's doing is (drastically) increasing the size of the GOPer clown car.
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Liberals Are Intolerant
fiscal conservative, social libertarian
11:28 AM on 10/03/2011
Modern northeast republicans like myself have come to the correct conclusion that
1) we cannot legislate morality, and the abortion issue is already effectively settled for a generation
2) we cannot ignore science. Good people can disagree over the origin of global warming, or evolution. But we cannot ignore the overwhelming evidence at hand, and younger generations have accepted them as fact.
3) we cannot continue to fight against the civil rights of gays and lesbians, and the younger generations have already accepted this.

I wish Christie was not openly hostile to the 2nd amendment, and that he took a firmer stance against illegal immigration. But he and Daniels and Huntsman and most of the northeast have figured all this out and see the future of our party. The tea party was supposed to be about keeping taxes low, reducing spending, and keeping the government out of our lives. Now the religious right has managed to hijack the tea party along with everything else.

It is downright sad that you can be the most fiscally conservative guy but then because you recognize evolution and the civil rights of all people, you are somehow a "liberal".
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Nosybear
Liar, damned liar and statistician
12:22 PM on 10/03/2011
Nice expression of a center-right position. I'd agree with you, if any such politician existed. Unfortunately we get a choice between the extreme right and the right, your position is actually too liberal for any politician, including a Democrat, to espouse unless he's Bernie Sanders.
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INVet
Truth has a liberal bias
12:40 PM on 10/03/2011
Sorry that your party has left you. I miss your brand of Republican - one that I differed in some policy issues but at the same time knew that you were
1) Sane
2) Interested in furthing the interests of the people of United States
3) Able to argue intelligently
4) Did, actually graduate from school and college.

When you can, we will still welcome you to the Democrat party.
10:48 AM on 10/03/2011
Christies response to the looming pension timebomb in NJ is to do nothing...as in not even fund what he is required to....just ignore it....i guess he figures that it won't be his problem....so if he has no ideas, and he cannot advocate for what everyone knows will be necessary...reductions in penions for bothe current and retired state, coiunty, municipal workers (including cops and fireman) how is it we could expect him to lead the country out of its larger mess????
I voted for the guy but I'd like hime to really tackle the problems here...he has not yet
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Liberals Are Intolerant
fiscal conservative, social libertarian
11:35 AM on 10/03/2011
My GF thinks I will move to your state, and I told her no way. Not until they fix these things, without raising taxes any more. The lack of pension funding was from is predecessors, who tried to keep the public dole going as long as possible. He did negotiate the deal with dems to lower the benefits requirements but it did not go far enough.
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snesich
05:37 PM on 10/03/2011
Actually, Christie, taking advantage of what is probably the strongest "governor" state in the nation, made sleazy deals with organized-crime type "Democrats"---New Jersey still has lots of those. Those "Democrats" betrayed the people who elected them and a lot of them are now having serious buyer's remorse.

How did Christie get them to go along with his plans? By buying them off with favors, backroom deals, (quasi legal) bribes, jobs to their friends, and finding a way to steer funding to some of the people and places connected with these "Democrats".
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Paul Is Right
10:24 AM on 10/03/2011
Very interesting article, Mr. Lawrence. I only question your take on Gov. Christie viz-a-viz cap-and-trade (lots of hyphens there). I read that Gov. Christie ended/is ending New Jersey's participation in RGGI (the state-by-state equivalent of cap-and-trade (more hyphens). Doesn't this demonstrate a reluctance to endorse cap-and-trade?
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Stewart J. Lawrence
Veteran policy analyst and news journalist
11:38 AM on 10/03/2011
You're right, he made that decision in May-June, calling the RGGI "ineffective," but Christie unlike Perry, and like Romney and Huntsman, believes that climate change is a real issue and that humans helped make it one. He believes in "science."

Christie has also championed the development of off-shore wind power, sided against a major coal-fired power plant project in Linden, and has signed bills to reducing fertilizer run off into Barnegat Bay and opposing natural gas ports off the coast.

His flip-flop on cap-and-trade was probably an attempt to conciliate the national GOP, perhaps because he was all along considering a presidential run. The same on immigration. After his Reagan Library speech last week he criticized Rick Perry's position on tuition aid to illegal immigrants.

Christie's in a blue state and his trajectory reflects that. He's the first Republican to win statewide office in NJ in 12 years, and he's in a blue state that once had a staunchly pro-environment governor - Whitman, who went on to work for Clinton. This is the guy who told Sarah Palin not to visit his state to help him. Rick Perry begged her, and without him, he probably wouldn't have beaten Hutchison.

Tea partiers may be glomping on to Christie, and he's making some overtures their way, but they got the wrong guy. It's mainly about style - not policy substance.
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INVet
Truth has a liberal bias
12:42 PM on 10/03/2011
If he didn't hate teachers and education so much maybe I would like him a little better.
Democrat in the South
Empathy, the most important word
09:34 AM on 10/03/2011
What I know Chris Cristy for is his ability to tell Americans who don't like what he "does", to shut up and sit down!
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irishinohio
skating on a razor blade
08:48 AM on 10/03/2011
Christ Christ.....it's all in the name!
IMOPINIONH8D
because I want it empty...
08:17 AM on 10/03/2011
If Slim steps into the race, a month from then the repubs will be wanting another candidate. He cant beat Obama a year from now. Once the people find out more about him, the less chance he will have of winning.