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Stewart J. Lawrence

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Is Mitt Romney's Presidential Campaign About to Go South?

Posted: 01/19/2012 7:17 pm

Look out, GOP presidential front-runner Mitt Romney could be on the verge of losing two Republican primaries in the space of a single week. And if he does, his once steady march toward the Republican nomination could be abruptly halted, leaving the GOP race unexpectedly up for grabs.

A final tally of the balloting from the Iowa caucuses held on January 3 appears to show that Rick Santorum, not Romney, won that contest, by as much as 40 votes, not the 8-vote margin originally reported for Romney. Romney used his surprise Iowa win as a springboard to a commanding victory in New Hampshire on January 11. No non-incumbent GOP presidential candidate has ever won the first two GOP primaries, which seemed to confirm Romney's growing momentum.

Meanwhile, polls in South Carolina show Newt Gingrich surging fast, reversing the large double-digit lead Romney enjoyed in the Palmetto State only several days ago. Gingrich's attacks on Romney's private sector experience may not be convincing many voters, but his rabble-rousing debate performance two nights ago, and Romney's rather shaky one, appears to be yielding huge dividends in a state whose primary has long been considered the GOP's bellwether contest.

In fact, while two South Carolina primary polls still have Gingrich trailing by 10 points, three new polls released just today show Gingrich ahead of Romney by 3-5 points. And the very latest national poll also shows Gingrich trailing Romney by just by 3 points, which means the two men are in a statistical dead heat.

And that's not all. Romney suffered another blow Thursday morning when Texas governor Rick Perry dropped out of the race -- then turned around and heartily endorsed Gingrich. That endorsement came on the heels of a statement by former Alaska governor Sarah Palin that if she were a South Carolina voter, she would cast her ballot for Gingrich. Those endorsements, plus tonight's final South Carolina debate, are likely to add substantially to Newt's growing momentum.

A confirmed loss by Romney in Iowa, however small, and a come-from-behind Gingrich victory in South Carolina on Saturday, could completely alter the narrative of the GOP race, which in recent days had suggested that Romney's was becoming all-but-invincible. Now, it appears, that Romney's as vulnerable as ever, and that Gingrich, though badly bloodied from his rival's Super PAC attacks in Iowa and New Hampshire, has successfully rebounded, using the very same scorched earth tactics on Romney to surge back into contention.

A key factor in the Gingrich rebound was the decision by a prominent Nevada casino owner, Sheldon Adelson, to donate $5 million to Gingrich's Super PAC to wage his South Carolina campaign. Gingrich originally requested $20 million, and he may well get the balance if he scores a big win on Saturday. And if that happens, all bets are off in the next GOP primary in Florida scheduled for January 31.

In Florida, Romney currently holds a 20-point lead over his rivals, and one poll even has Gingrich slipping to third behind Santorum. But these polls, like those conducted earlier in South Carolina, were fielded before Gingrich's latest surge. If Gingrich wins or runs competitively in South Carolina, expect the race in Florida to tighten, too. There are also growing rumors that Palin, who's wildly popular with Republicans in Florida, and who's rallied the faithful there as recently as October, might formally endorse Gingrich before the month is out.

If so, Romney's days as GOP front-runner -- let alone party "heir apparent" -- may well be numbered.

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Stewart J. Lawrence
Veteran policy analyst and news journalist
07:07 PM on 01/20/2012
Of course, it turns out that Bain has since donated even more money to Democratic candidates than to GOP ones.

http://www.salon.com/2012/01/19/democrats_got_over_1_million_from_bain/singleton/

Interesting to see how this highly-charged issue plays out in the general election, if Romney still gets the nods.

No wonder Perry referred to Bain/Romney as "vulture" capitalists.

I think he meant it literally?
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Stewart J. Lawrence
Veteran policy analyst and news journalist
07:05 PM on 01/20/2012
ROMNEY AND DEATH SQUADS?

It turns out that Bain got a significant portion of its original seed capital from the wealthy Salvadoran families that helped spawn the death squads that helped wipe out the popular (non-violent) organizations in that country on the eve of the civil war.

apparently this is ROMNEY'S VERSION OF HISPANIC "OUTREACH"

He gloated over these connections to Hispanic audiences when he ran in 2007 - though he conveniently left out mention of the DeSola family

http://www.salon.com/2012/01/20/the_roots_of_bain_capital_in_el_salvador/
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phal4875
The world is run by cats; we just feed them.
01:05 PM on 01/20/2012
Romney could still be viewed as the "hair apparent."
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Stewart J. Lawrence
Veteran policy analyst and news journalist
01:59 PM on 01/21/2012
It's refreshing that no one in the media actually compared Romney's hair to anyone else's - except when his fellow Mormon Jon Huntsman dropped out. I saw someone comment on how equally matched they were in terms of pretty wife, long marriage, large family, telegenic appearance, and GOOD HAIR. There's still time, though. It's early.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gurukalehuru
cwtc7
01:05 PM on 01/20/2012
Hey, man, say, man, can you say Cayman?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gurukalehuru
cwtc7
12:55 PM on 01/20/2012
Dear Mr. Lawrence You are a professional journalist. Please pay attention to the difference between whose and who's.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
frank day
Republican = FAIL
01:06 PM on 01/20/2012
that's your contribution?
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Stewart J. Lawrence
Veteran policy analyst and news journalist
01:48 PM on 01/20/2012
He's quite right, though. I notified the blog team.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gurukalehuru
cwtc7
02:41 PM on 01/20/2012
If anybody wants to read my blog at www.gurukalehuru.com and check for errors in spelling or grammar, I would be grateful.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Stewart J. Lawrence
Veteran policy analyst and news journalist
01:32 PM on 01/20/2012
Duly noted - should be corrected anon. Thank you, Guru.
10:42 AM on 01/20/2012
Cayman Islands bank account may be the final nail.
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phal4875
The world is run by cats; we just feed them.
01:08 PM on 01/20/2012
Try reading the story of Jael and Sisera in "Judges" in the Bible. That final nail was very final. I agree with you that the Caymans could be his doom.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
becky bradshaw
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth
10:32 AM on 01/20/2012
Romney' performance at the debate last night was shaky, because he has been caught hiding income in the Cayman Islands. Romney claims he paid normal taxes on these funds.

Money held overseas avoids the degree of scrutiny as money in a U.S. account. Most people will perceive it as a tax dodge, especially with Romney's reluctance to release his financial records. The longer he waits just adds to the appearance that he has something to hide, and needs time to tidy up before showing his stuff.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dcflush
The nickname is about poker, not politics
10:17 AM on 01/20/2012
Sadly, far too many on the right would vote for anyone other than President Obama because they believe the lies fed to them by Fox 'News' and the other right-wing talking heads.

I would denounce and abandon the Dem party if the Dem leaders and candidates became as out of touch with reality or as reprehensible and offensive as the modern Republican party has become.

And I believe that far more Dems would do the same than have Republicans. I believe that Dems have a far larger percentage of rational adult members/supporters than does the Republican party. And I believe that if the Dem party were to go off the rails as the modern Republican party has, the Dem party would very quickly disintegrate.

On the other hand, it seems Republican supporters have grown more entrenched. More out of touch with reality. More hateful, fearful and mean-spirited. More hypocritical. Instead of denouncing the actions of their party leaders, they double down on them and cheer the worst and most egregious of their comments. Instead of becoming an independent and seeking out independent sources of information they hunker down and believe that everything they disagree with is some vast liberal conspiracy.

It's saddening and disheartening that so many Americans are still Republicans, even after the shameful, harmful, irresponsible, incompetent and reprehensible way the Republican party has governed, spoken and lived the past decade.
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
08:49 AM on 01/20/2012
Who won Iowa or wins SC is irrelevant. The winner needs half the primary votes, or it will be a "brokered convention", delegates will select the winner. No one has 50+% approval, if the votes split three ways "none of the above" will win. __ I predicted same four months ago, still no one in the media has even mentioned it. Why do you all believe it will be a two-man race, with a winner? That's not how JFK was nominated, at least us old folks should remember.
12:51 PM on 01/20/2012
I thought the Republican rules were winner takes all, where as the Democrats do a proportional split based on vote break down with super delegates free to choose whomever. The implication being that even if you only get 35%, as long as you get more than anyone else, you get all the delegates.

I could be wrong, does anyone know if the the DNC/RNC has changed any rules about delegates since 2008?
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phal4875
The world is run by cats; we just feed them.
01:11 PM on 01/20/2012
The Iowa caucuses divided the votes, and at least some of the primaries will do the same in the Republican contest. Democrats in 2008 mostly had winner-take-all contests, as I recall.

I believe the Republicans saw the new rules as a chance to keep the contest going longer. A lengthy contest worked to the benefit of the Democrats last time around - even with the winner-take-all rules.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Stewart J. Lawrence
Veteran policy analyst and news journalist
01:24 PM on 01/20/2012
The RNC changed the rules in 2012. All states that moved their primaries up before April 1 will have their delegates 1) cut in half, and 2) assigned more or less proportionally, with the precise apportioning rules to be determined by states.

One exception: FLORIDA. Owing to its growing importance, the RNC agreed that the primary will remain winner-take-all.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Stewart J. Lawrence
Veteran policy analyst and news journalist
04:49 PM on 01/20/2012
Of course, you're write. I actually wrote about this several blog posts ago. The delegate battle is likely to continue right up to Tampa. It's been mentioned, but many in the media are still assuming that whoever gets the momentum early will sweep all the contests anyway. Wishful thinking.
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
08:05 PM on 01/20/2012
I've been posting this since Oct, and only have gotten replies in the last two weeks. People are realizing it's not far-fetched at all.

Repub non-Romney voters could even assure it happens. In "winner take all" states, they should unite and vote for the candidate with the fewest primary votes so far. That will assure no one candidate gets more than half, and a brokered convention.
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Grichde
Little Hope, Wrong Change
08:36 AM on 01/20/2012
On the other hand if he takes SC he will sweep the nation. Romney was not expected to win in Iowa. SC is not a strong hole of Mormon votes.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
08:41 AM on 01/20/2012
Romney didn't win Iowa.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
sociocanuck
Red Tory mind / Progressive voting history
12:00 PM on 01/20/2012
He wasn't expected to. That's the point.
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ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
08:53 AM on 01/20/2012
Do you really believe Repubs are sheep, vote for whoever those in other states vote for? Do you think people in SC look up to people in NH, or Florida looks up to SC? Actually, they all don't like other, and would rather vote the opposite way. They often will jump on a bandwagon, but a plurality is never that, and Romney will never get 50% of the votes in any state this year. The remaining candidates won't drop out, and together they beat Romney. But if all but one dropped out, Romney would win. The Repub party is divided, they never will agree on a candidate.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RichTBikkies
Trainee Basil Fawlty; practising Victor Meldrew
01:02 PM on 01/20/2012
"Do you really believe Repubs are sheep?"

Yes. There's no other explanation for their worldview.
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frank day
Republican = FAIL
01:08 PM on 01/20/2012
"Do you really believe Repubs are sheep"

YES
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Chubbster
Always Under Moderation
08:00 AM on 01/20/2012
So funny that anyone takes Iowa seriously. Mitt won by 8 votes...no wait...he lost by 36. Wow. Landslide. What percentage of Iowans even went to the polls besides the wing nuts? 12% HUge.
Iowa at least recognizes it's own relative insignificance.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RichTBikkies
Trainee Basil Fawlty; practising Victor Meldrew
01:03 PM on 01/20/2012
"So funny that anyone takes Iowa seriously."

That's what I've thought for the past forty years. It's almost as bad as Kansas.
07:28 AM on 01/20/2012
... from your lips ........
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
forty8r
Gerrman Freethinker
03:50 AM on 01/20/2012
Romney is always trying to convince us he is not a 1%er yet he acts like a .1%er with no tangible economic policies to help the middle class.
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AvgJoeBlow
We are smarter than any of us.
07:13 AM on 01/20/2012
But ins't that the defn of the new GOP Party?
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Steelsil
Alan Grayson for President!
03:31 AM on 01/20/2012
They're, I mean. I've read one Republican post too many.
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Chubbster
Always Under Moderation
08:01 AM on 01/20/2012
Your avatar, Ben Franklin, was a GOPer. Pretty funny...
10:27 AM on 01/20/2012
Ben Franklin was a GOP'er? Ben Franklin died before the Republican Party came into existence.
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phal4875
The world is run by cats; we just feed them.
01:18 PM on 01/20/2012
The Republican Party began in 1854 and elected its first president in 1860. Franklin had died long before 1854, so his participation in the GOP must have been very quiet.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Steelsil
Alan Grayson for President!
03:30 AM on 01/20/2012
It doesn't matter which Republican wins. The Greedy One Percenters own our government. They own us, and they've decided to thin the herd. First they lay you off, then they eliminate food stamps, and unemployment compensation. If you get sick with no insurance, you die, shivering, hungry, homeless, in the cold. As I said, they've decided to thin the herd, and their fine with starting with the poor children, the elderly, and the handicapped, who don't contribute to their bottom line.
08:12 AM on 01/20/2012
Not a smart strategy since this herd can easily get access to guns....
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phal4875
The world is run by cats; we just feed them.
01:20 PM on 01/20/2012
Dear Steelsil:

I don't disagree, but it would be a foolish strategy on their part. They need the poor and middle class to work for them, and they need the same folks to buy from their businesses. Seventy percent of GDP comes from consumer spending. They may not like us, but they still need us.