As mass demonstrations continued in Iran for a fifth day following what was viewed by many to be a rigged election last Friday, experts in the United States insist that the protests do not constitute a revolution. Nevertheless, the situation could incidentally end in prolific changes to the Islamic Republic due to long-festering problems of the system's own making.
Such was the general consensus among leading Iran experts at a roundtable discussion moderated by Newsweek's Nisid Hajari Wednesday on Capitol Hill for the ninth National Iranian American Council (NIAC) conference on US-Iran relations. "I don't think people are trying to bring down the entire system," said Hooman Majd, an Iranian-American journalist and author of The Ayatollah Begs to Differ. The protests thus far have not called for the toppling of the system, only that peoples' votes be counted, Majd points out.
Much of the popular rage stems from the sacredness Iranians place on voting, as their one true, guaranteed right. Elections in Iran are "the one thing, up until now, that's generally considered fair," explains Majd.
Another panelist, the NIAC's president and co-founder Trita Parsi, agrees that the popular will of the "Green Wave" is not for all-out revolution. Parsi has followed US-Iran relations for over a decade and is the author of Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Iran, Israel and the United States. He claims that the demonstrators are foregoing revolutionary rhetoric so as not to turn off many Iranians who still value and depend on the current system. By simply calling for their votes to be counted within the Islamic Republican system itself, they have a far better chance of attracting power brokers within the government to their cause.
And indeed, one reason that many Iranians who are taking to the streets feel so empowered is that they have powerful allies within the system itself. The most obvious example is their candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who was Prime Minister during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s and is still very much an Islamic revolution insider. But another, even more noteworthy player, is Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president and the chairman of the Assembly of Experts that elects the Supreme Leader.
Three days prior to the election, Rafsanjani issued an open letter to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei scolding him for his silence on Ahmadinejad's "insults, lies and false allegations" during the presidential debates, and warning of potential election fraud. Rafsanjani has so far abstained from making any public statements since the election, but his views are widely known nonetheless.
The massive scale of the public backlash may also be explained by the unprecedentedly high voter turnout, which exceeded 80 percent of eligible voters. According to Suzanna Maloney of the Brookings Institution, this is explained partially by the televised presidential debates that caused such an imbroglio during the weeks leading up to Election Day, including Rafsanjani's letter to Khamenei. According to Maloney, arguments on policy and accusations of corruption reached "a degree of frankness never really heard before" in the Islamic Republic. At one point, Ahmadinejad held up what he claimed to be the intelligence file on Mousavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard. And at other points, reformist candidates Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi accused Ahmadinejad outright of being a liar.
Yet another explanation for the massive scale of the protests, discussed by the roundtable, points to larger underlying elements of Iranian politics and society. Because Iran is generally a closed off and suppressed society, moments of open defiance tend to escalate quickly and widely, says Ali Akbar Mahdi, a Sociology professor at Ohio Wesleyan University and author of a number of books on Iran and the Middle East. "Whenever [Iranians] find a venue or opportunity, they all come out," explained Mahdi. Though Mousavi is somewhat of an accidental figurehead for the current movement, in reality, there is no real leadership. The demonstrations' concerted directive stems incidentally from the mutually held secular beliefs that are usually quashed in Iran's public and political sphere.
Regardless of the reasons for the sheer size of the protests in Iran are the implications of such wide public outcry for the Islamic revolution itself. With each new day of demonstrations, in open defiance to Khamenei who has declared them illegal, comes an erosion of the Supreme Leader's power; and moreover, an erosion of the system's legitimacy, which is partly based on the Supreme Leader's infallibility.
Because Khamenei immediately embraced Friday's election result, calling it "sacred" and "blessed", only to later backpedal slightly by calling for a partial recount of certain voting districts, many believe the system to already be irreparably cracked. However, according to Majd, this may be a premature judgement. "I think his preference is obviously not to back down, but [Khamenei] is very much a survivor," opines Majd. He speculates that the Supreme Leader is not down and out yet because he can always blame a fixed election on the Interior Minister, thus maintaining plausible deniability for himself.
Moreover, as Parsi points out, some don't consider Khamenei's statement on Saturday confirming the election result to be as paramount as generally believed because he did not ever mention Ahmadinejad by name. As tinny as this legerdemain may be, it furnishes the Supreme Leader with another possible fix to the situation.
Another theory, conveyed by Mahdi, is that Khamenei intentionally fixed the election in Ahmadinejad's favor simply to show that he could, and thus to demonstrate his ultimate power in Iran to an international audience. The large scale uprising, in this scenario, is unexpected, and in Mahdi's opinion, it means that the regime has definitely been hurt in some ways.
For her part, Maloney agrees that the regime will be weaker and far more exposed going forth, especially if the current outcome is allowed to stand. However, this could bode ill for international relations with the Islamic Republic. Because Ahmadinejad has shown himself to be completely unmoved by the events in Iran, Maloney thinks he will also be even less inclined to offer any concessions in negotiations with international players, namely with the US over Iran's nuclear program.
However, others argue that a Mousavi victory would actually be worse for negotiations over Iran's nuclear program because he would not take office until August, and would not have his cabinet until September. Such a delay, many believe, could allow for Iran to achieve a dangerous technical benchmark in its nuclear program that the US wishes very much for it to never reach.
Either way, the NIAC panelists agree that Iran will be a changed state going forth from the demonstrations. According to Maloney, if Khamenei does reverse himself too much, his infallibility will be forever broken and the world will see the "beginnings of a very different kind of Iran." Mahdi points out that Khamenei has long been warned by reformists of the possibility of a backlash. Many reformists see Ahmadinejad's behavior as "shooting the system in the leg," and indeed, this undermining came to a head during the presidential debates when the incumbent accused every single president before him of corruption.
What changes the world will see in Iran are impossible to know at this point, but by Majd's account, many already consider the Khamenei era to be over. According to Majd, Iran's more secular, sophisticated population -- who has long tolerated the oppressive system -- is finally looking around and thinking, "it's now or never."
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Neda and those others like her, murdered by the thugs of the regime, are true martyrs in the cause of Liberty. They stand in Heaven beside all who have preceded them, including our own patriots such as Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., and must never be forgotten by ourselves, or future generations!
Liberty, equality, and justice are the birthright of all of God's children!
Allah O Akabar!
Leland R. Erickson
Citizen
The election was so obviously fixed, that it was pathetic and a sad situation for the majority of Iranians, both living in Iran and out of the country.
As far as Americans, there are two good insights that should occur.
First, Iran's right wing Islamic government is weak and corrupt; it does not have the support of many if not most Iranians, so this should signal US to be a little patient and see that they are likely to make progress in the years ahead.
Another perception that Americans should take to heart is that right wing Republicans are still war mongers and advocating that US take a more hostile attitude toward Iran because of it's messed up national election. Most experts believe that Obama is taking a very wise approach.
This should warn Americans about how it will be important in the next American elections to keep working against Republicans ever again taking over the American Presidency. Republicans are a bigger threat to world peace than Iranian conservatives.
It is not an exaggeration to believe that the AMERICAN REPUBLICAN PARTY IS THE MOST DANGEROUS POLITICAL FORCE IN THE WORLD.
It is full of conservatives and reactionaries who believe that torture should be legal and that countries can be justified in starting wars if they feel threatened, even against other small countries.
Either way, the Supreme Leader (sounds like a N Korean title) is having his authority challenged in a big way. Things will never be the same there from now on but the old guys haven't caught on.
As for it meaning the end of the Islamic Revolution, dream on. I wasn't cognisant that the blatant theft of the 2000 US election aided and abetted by partisan Republican judges in the US Supreme Court, some of whom were appointed by George H. Bush senior (Dubya's dad) heralded the demise of the US political system.
My simple advice to those going on a flight of fantasy or living in a state of denial is move on; get a life; and let the rest of the world determine its own internal affairs without US and other western interference.
Professor Dr. Stanley Collymore.
I point out that the theft of the American election in 2000 directly led to the election of Obama 8 years later. It would probably not have been possible any other way. You can fool all the people some of the time and all the people some of the time but you can't fool all the people all the time!
As it stands the Supreme Leader of present day Iran only has the one title. And if you're going to quibble about titles, all contemporary US presidents see themselves as Commander-in-Chief of the US armed forces that most of them never served in and, in some cases - Clinton and George W. Bush are prime examples - did all they could to avoid the draft or put themselves in harm's way for the defence, as you would see it, of a country they nonetheless felt they had an omnipotent right to govern. What say you to that?
Professor Dr. Stanley Collymore..
Call another Election - a Monitored election! Everyone looks good then to
the world!
Many in Israel hate Barak Obama and continued spreading he was Muslim even when he was running and afterwood.
Israel has its own race issues and Barak is doing great not to get in the way here or it will backfire big time.
The hate for Barak Obama in Israel is blinded and allot of it has to do with race
Juan Cole http://www.juancole.com/
"What I saw today was the most elegant scene I had ever witnessed in my life. The huge number of people were marching hand in hand in full peace. Silence. Silence was everywhere. There was no slogan. No violence. Hands were up in victory sign with green ribbons. People carried placards which read: Silence. Old and young, man and woman of all social groups were marching cheerfully. This was a magnificent show of solidarity. Enghelab Street which is the widest avenue in Tehran was full of people. I was told that the march has begun in Ferdowsi Sq. and the end of the march was now in Imam Hossein Sq. to the further east of Tehran while on the other end people had already gathered in Azadi Sq."
"I felt proud to find myself among such a huge number of passionate people who were showing the most reasonable act of protest. Frankly, I didn't expect such a political maturity from emotional Iranians who easily get excited. My family and I had put stickers on our mouths to represent the suppression. Placards that people carried were different; from poems by the national poet Ahmad Shamlu to light-hearted slogans against Ahmadinejad."
http://www.juancole.com/
We don't have Mousavi supporters, it's now all of Iran...
"In the crowd there are families, young and old. One cannot help but notice the large presence of women of all ages. The typical daily life of the capital is out here together, the homes, sidewalks and boulevards abandoned for this shared space. There is word that the crowd is millions strong; we know that it stretches eastwards to Imam Hussein Square. It is an incredible occasion---by comparison the state-organized 200,000 strong anniversary march that takes place every February starts from around Ferdowsi Square, several kilometers closer in to Azadi.
The mood in the crowd was positive, reminiscent of the joyous celebrations of the final week of the campaign. The chants are up-to-date, changed to reflect the new circumstances in Iran, the things that we did not know before Friday's vote. "Hale ye noor e ro dide, rai e mano nadide?" A reference to the light of the hidden Imam that Ahmadinejad claimed to have seen, roughly translated to rhyme, "If he saw that light, why didn't he see the vote we cast with all our might?!" And, "Ta in Ahmadi nejad hast, in ghaziye ijad hast!" Until this Ahmadi is here, this commotion will not disappear!"