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Election Predictions

My Final Midterm Election Picks

Chris Weigant | Posted 11.03.2014 | Politics
Chris Weigant

We've got six states in the Too Close To Call category, but fear not! After providing a rundown of the races, I am adding a section below where I make my own picks for each of them (since it is Election Eve, after all, and thus time to put up or shut up).

Who are the Undecideds?

Doug Rivers | Posted 11.03.2014 | Politics
Doug Rivers

There are many sources of uncertainty in election polling other than sampling error. One source of error that looms large in this year's closest races is undecided voters -- people who say they are going to vote, but don't know (or won't say) which candidate they prefer.

Natalie Jackson

Why Can't Pre-Election Polls Just Get It Right?

HuffingtonPost.com | Natalie Jackson | Posted 07.02.2014 | Politics

As we move through primary season this summer, we've seen some shocking and unexpected outcomes. Why didn't we know that House Majority Leader Eric Ca...

Just the Story, Ma'am

David Crisanti | Posted 01.08.2013 | Politics
David Crisanti

An election is one of the few subjects pundits opine on en masse for which there is an unambiguous outcome. Will we remember their accuracy the next time they express a fervent opinion on a subject for which there will be no definitive answer?

Scoot Over, Bieber

The Huffington Post | Britney Fitzgerald | Posted 11.07.2012 | Technology

Barack Obama is the official winner of the 2012 presidential race, as well as the ultimate king of the Twittersphere. When numbers began pouring i...

Pollster Predictive Performance, 51 out of 51

Simon Jackman | Posted 01.07.2013 | Politics
Simon Jackman

If Florida stays in the Obama column, we will have called each state correctly: 51 out of 51, and the Obama Electoral College count bang on 332.

The Big Romney Electoral College Win Forecast That Fizzled

The Boulder Daily Camera | BRITTANY ANAS | Posted 01.08.2013 | Denver

The University of Colorado political science professor who mined economic data to predict that Republican nominee Mitt Romney would win the presidenti...

Who Will Win The Election?

The Huffington Post | Britney Fitzgerald | Posted 11.06.2012 | Technology

Will Obama win the 2012 presidential election? According to a map from the Oxford Internet Institute, the current U.S. commander-in-chief has been...

Nixonland Author Rick Perlstein Talks GOP 'Lies' on The Interview Show

Mark Bazer | Posted 01.06.2013 | Politics
Mark Bazer

Political historian Rick Perlstein, author of Nixonland and writer for Rolling Stone, The Nation and other publications, stopped by The Interview Show to give host Mark Bazer his take on the GOP, Barack Obama and the 2012 election.

Election Monitor: Sandy Helps Obama But Not Enough - Romney Will Win Tonight

Steve Lombardo | Posted 01.06.2013 | Politics
Steve Lombardo

Mitt Romney will string together a winning coalition with victories in states ranging from Virginia to Colorado, capturing the popular vote by nearly two points and a sizeable majority of electoral votes, making him the 45th President of the United States.

WATCH: Jimmy Fallon's Puppy Predicts Who Will Win The Election

Posted 11.06.2012 | Comedy

While Jon Stewart was smacking cable news pundits for being completely unaccountable when it comes to their election predictions, Jimmy Fallon was mak...

'What The F*ck Are You People Doing There?'

Posted 11.06.2012 | Comedy

Everyone has made their election predictions and today is the moment of truth: when no one, no matter how influential, will be held accountable for be...

My Predictions For The U.S. Presidential Election

Adam Eliot | Posted 01.05.2013 | Gay Voices
Adam Eliot

With the U.S. presidential election only days away, I thought it would be fun for my first blog to share some of my predictions about the big day. I practice Vedic astrology, which originated in India over 5,000 years ago and is the world's oldest form of astrology.

Presidential Palate Predictor: Let Your Taste Buds Decide

Posted 11.01.2012 | Taste

If you had to eat the diet of the winning candidate for the next four years, whose would it be?

Astrology: Round #1 of the Presidential Debates

Larry Schwimmer | Posted 10.05.2012 | Politics
Larry Schwimmer

There is no question that President Obama lost the debate. From an astrological perspective, it might be interesting to review what happened?

This Election Is Already Over - Obama Has Won

Cenk Uygur | Posted 12.01.2012 | Politics
Cenk Uygur

Here's my new favorite fact: whoever is leading two weeks after the last convention has never relinquished the lead in the last 15 presidential elections. It's way past two weeks since the last convention and President Obama doesn't have a small lead, he has a huge lead.

Cable News Convention Ratings as Election Indicators

Reese Schonfeld | Posted 11.13.2012 | Media
Reese Schonfeld

Two weeks ago, the week of the Republican Convention, Fox News dominated primetime news ratings.

Ratings: The Summer of '12 -- a Distorted Season

Reese Schonfeld | Posted 10.28.2012 | Media
Reese Schonfeld

Once every four years, the Summer Olympics distort the news ratings. This year, it was worse than usual because MSNBC, programmed by NBC, carried a lot of Olympic events, sometimes in primetime, sometimes in daytime.

Romney Will Be President, CU Professors' Model Predicts

The Huffington Post | Matt Ferner | Posted 08.23.2012 | Denver

Two University of Colorado professors, one from Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will...

'SNL' Election Predictions

The Huffington Post | Ross Luippold & Katla McGlynn | Posted 08.21.2012 | Comedy

The only people working harder than the Romney and Obama campaign staffs for the next few months are the cast, writers, producers and production crew ...

Ryan Plus One Week: No Bounce

Simon Jackman | Posted 10.20.2012 | Politics
Simon Jackman

The Obama-Romney margin at the national level, 1.3 percentage points as of today, is right at the edge of conventional levels of statistical significance; the probability that Obama leads Romney in national level voting intentions is about 80 percent.

New Hampshire Primary Forecasts Obama Reelection

Helmut Norpoth | Posted 03.13.2012 | Politics
Helmut Norpoth

For the record, the Primary Model, with slight modifications, has predicted the winner of the popular vote in all presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996.

Predicting the Presidential Election: 2012

James Zogby | Posted 03.08.2012 | Politics
James Zogby

Amidst all the fuss about Obama's sagging poll numbers and "who's up and who's down" in the Republican presidential primary contest, professor Allan Lichtman has issued his "sure fire" prediction for the outcome of the 2012 election.

Wrong Again: Why Experts' Predictions Fail, Especially About the Future

Michael Shermer | Posted 03.05.2012 | Science
Michael Shermer

As 2012 unfolds, most notably with predictions about political elections, beware of the experts. For the most part, these experts are no better than dart-throwing chimps.

Update: Predicting Election Results by Viewer Preference

Reese Schonfeld | Posted 05.25.2011 | Media
Reese Schonfeld

I've been able to get last week's cable viewing numbers in time to include last week's results. FoxNews viewing was up sharply in all categories during the week of 10/25 to 10/31. Here are the numbers.