May you be reminded that your willingness to engage, to meet new people, to initiate the next get-together, to schedule women into your life and to foster these friendships over time is proving to raise your wellbeing! And don't we all want that?
So will 2012 give us some surprises? Almost certainly. The thing about surprises is that they are hard to predict, but the biggest surprise for me would be an election result that looked exactly like the current polling and prognostication predicts.
The unknowns as we head down to the wire are significant. If the ground game is not accurately taken into account, as Obama advisor David Axelrod suggests, no doubt polling firms are struggling to account for the air war as well.
There is some variation in the results of national polls that have been released in the past week or two but all of them show the margin between Romney and Obama to be within two or three points one way or the other. All of them with one exception, that is -- the Gallup tracking poll.
As if nervous Democrats didn't have enough to worry about, on the morning of the second presidential debate, USA Today and the Gallup Poll released a new poll of 12 swing states that shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama by 4 points among likely voters.
Throughout the summer and through the major party conventions, the prevailing view was that the 2012 presidential election would be a high-turnout, extremely close contest. There is increasing reason to question these assumptions.
Although Gallup does not report the racial composition of its tracking poll sample in its weekly presidential approval results, we can estimate the racial makeup of the sample by extrapolating from the reported approval rating of the president among whites, nonwhites and all adults.
Set against this context, it is not unreasonable to ask if the polls could be wrong. But based on the evidence, it would be unreasonable to conclude that the polls are giving us a qualitatively incorrect impression of how the election is shaping up.