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Pollster Analysis

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Massachusetts Race Turns Competitive | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.30.2014 | Politics

Martha Coakley sees her initial lead slip away in a Massachusetts race...again. Surveys disagree on candidates' popularity in North Carolina and elsew...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Is Joni Ernst Gaining In Iowa? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.29.2014 | Politics

New state surveys continue to point to a midterm edge for the GOP. The stats on early voting have some good news for the Democrats. And Clippy may soo...

2014 Early Voting Underway

Michael P. McDonald | Posted 09.29.2014 | Politics
Michael P. McDonald

Pollsters don't typically report their expected turnout, but any number of polls are showing Democratic candidates doing better among registered voters than likely voters. The higher the turnout, the more the electorate will look like profile of registered voters, which could be decisive for who wins Iowa and Senate control.

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Republican Gains Ground In Colorado | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.26.2014 | Politics

New Senate polls show movement to the Republican in Colorado. Nate Silver releases his latest Pollster ratings. And the Ace of Spades HQ aims to chang...

Severe Flaws in Polls

Frank A. Weil | Posted 09.25.2014 | Politics
Frank A. Weil

Political polls have become daily news in recent years. It begins to appear that we have put the cart before the horse.

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Mark Warner Leads In Two Virginia Polls | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.25.2014 | Politics

Polls show Democrat Mark Warner leading by a mile in Virginia. Another new survey confirms a close race in Arkansas. And since we are observing Rosh H...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Surveys Show A Close Race For Florida Governor | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.24.2014 | Politics

Two new polls confirm a close race for governor in Florida. PPP gives Democrats heartburn in Alaska and Arkansas. And we've upgraded our U.S. House '...

The Security Mom Myth Revisited

Anna Greenberg | Posted 09.23.2014 | Politics
Anna Greenberg

The tragic and horrific acts by Islamic State, Russian aggression and the deepening crisis in Iraq are disturbing and contribute to a sense of unease at a time when most voters think the country is on the wrong track.

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: New Polls Bump Up GOP Numbers | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.23.2014 | Politics

New U.S. Senate polls released over the past week bump up the chances of a Republican majority. State surveys look better for the Democrats than the g...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Nearly A Quarter Of Americans Support Their States' Secession | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.22.2014 | Politics

With the Scottish referendum over, we look back at how the pollsters did. A new survey that finds a quarter of Americans open to their state seceding....

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: What You Need To Know About That 'Nerd Fight' | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.19.2014 | Politics

We recap the Senate model debate that you have (or haven't) been following all week. Polls in Kansas give the independent an edge without Chad Taylor ...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: It's Election Day! (In Scotland) | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.18.2014 | Politics

It's Election Day in Scotland. We have the latest on what the Scottish polls are predicting and the challenges they face. Republicans have a good day ...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: A Quarter Of Gubernatorial Races Look Like Tossups | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.17.2014 | Politics

Our newly-released gubernatorial forecasts shows plenty of close races. A new poll shows the Republican leading in Iowa. And is it possible that polls...

Senate Races in 2014 Don't Represent the Nation

Harrison Hickman | Posted 09.19.2014 | Politics
Harrison Hickman

Poll consumers should not use nationwide polls to guess what is likely to happen in U.S. Senate races this year. Likewise, no matter what the outcome, these Senate races will not predict what will happen in the 2016 Presidential race.

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Poll Finds Pat Roberts Trailing Independent Candidate | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.16.2014 | Politics

Polling shows the potential for a major upset in Kansas. Both parties back action against ISIS -- but that's where the consensus ends. And decades of ...

Mark Blumenthal

Another Poll Shows Increasingly Close Race In New Hampshire | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.15.2014 | Politics

A flurry of new Senate polls released over the weekend suggest a closer race in New Hampshire, an emerging consensus that Hagan is leading in North Ca...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: GOP Leads Nationally, While Democrats Do Well In Senate Polls | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.12.2014 | Politics

A national poll finds the Republicans ahead, while state-level Senate surveys have some good news for Democrats. This year's gubernatorial races look ...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Terrorism Fears Rise, But Few Call It Most Important Issue | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.11.2014 | Politics

As polls find Americans find increasing concern in reaction to ISIS, very few mention terrorism as the most important problem facing the country. Demo...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: More Say America Is As Unsafe As It's Been Since 9/11 | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.10.2014 | Politics

Americans are more concerned about their safety from terrorism than they have been since 9/11. Another poll finds Republicans more enthusiastic about ...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Americans Deeply Worried By ISIS | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.09.2014 | Politics

Concerns about terrorism are leading to increased support for airstrikes. A new Kansas poll finds incumbent Pat Roberts vulnerable. And the year's pri...

Natalie Jackson

How HuffPost Forecasts Senate Elections: The Technical Details | Natalie Jackson | Posted 09.11.2014 | Politics

The HuffPost Pollster Senate prediction model has three parts: averaging public polls, calculating probabilities race by race and calculating the over...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: New Polls Show How Close The Midterms Remain | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.08.2014 | Politics

A new round of Senate polling shows a stable, slightly GOP-friendly midterm environment. We look at where the polls do, and don't agree, and how the n...

Mark Blumenthal

How The 'Orman Factor' Muddles The Senate Forecast, And How We've Dealt With That | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.06.2014 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- The recent upheaval in the Kansas Senate race has thrown a small wrench into political observers' efforts to forecast which party will t...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: How Do You Ask About A Senate Race Like Kansas? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.05.2014 | Politics

The upheaval in the Kansas Senate race creates one set of challenges for pollsters and another for forecasters. Americans are more optimistic about jo...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Kansas Senate Race Shakeup Could Leave Roberts Vulnerable | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.04.2014 | Politics

A major shakeup in Kansas throws a wrench into Senate predictions. A handful of new surveys all tell the same story about the Kentucky Senate race. An...