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Pollster Analysis

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Poll Finds Pat Roberts Trailing Independent Candidate

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.16.2014 | Politics

Polling shows the potential for a major upset in Kansas. Both parties back action against ISIS -- but that's where the consensus ends. And decades of ...

Mark Blumenthal

Another Poll Shows Increasingly Close Race In New Hampshire

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.15.2014 | Politics

A flurry of new Senate polls released over the weekend suggest a closer race in New Hampshire, an emerging consensus that Hagan is leading in North Ca...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: GOP Leads Nationally, While Democrats Do Well In Senate Polls

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.12.2014 | Politics

A national poll finds the Republicans ahead, while state-level Senate surveys have some good news for Democrats. This year's gubernatorial races look ...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Terrorism Fears Rise, But Few Call It Most Important Issue

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.11.2014 | Politics

As polls find Americans find increasing concern in reaction to ISIS, very few mention terrorism as the most important problem facing the country. Demo...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: More Say America Is As Unsafe As It's Been Since 9/11

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.10.2014 | Politics

Americans are more concerned about their safety from terrorism than they have been since 9/11. Another poll finds Republicans more enthusiastic about ...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Americans Deeply Worried By ISIS

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.09.2014 | Politics

Concerns about terrorism are leading to increased support for airstrikes. A new Kansas poll finds incumbent Pat Roberts vulnerable. And the year's pri...

Natalie Jackson

How HuffPost Forecasts Senate Elections: The Technical Details

HuffingtonPost.com | Natalie Jackson | Posted 09.11.2014 | Politics

The HuffPost Pollster Senate prediction model has three parts: averaging public polls, calculating probabilities race by race and calculating the over...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: New Polls Show How Close The Midterms Remain

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.08.2014 | Politics

A new round of Senate polling shows a stable, slightly GOP-friendly midterm environment. We look at where the polls do, and don't agree, and how the n...

Mark Blumenthal

How The 'Orman Factor' Muddles The Senate Forecast, And How We've Dealt With That

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.06.2014 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- The recent upheaval in the Kansas Senate race has thrown a small wrench into political observers' efforts to forecast which party will t...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: How Do You Ask About A Senate Race Like Kansas?

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.05.2014 | Politics

The upheaval in the Kansas Senate race creates one set of challenges for pollsters and another for forecasters. Americans are more optimistic about jo...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Kansas Senate Race Shakeup Could Leave Roberts Vulnerable

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.04.2014 | Politics

A major shakeup in Kansas throws a wrench into Senate predictions. A handful of new surveys all tell the same story about the Kentucky Senate race. An...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Poll Gives The GOP A National Edge

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.03.2014 | Politics

A new national poll gives Republicans the upper hand. We explain our new Senate forecast. And if you're looking for a wealth of nonpartisan polls, you...

Mark Blumenthal

HuffPost's New Senate Forecast Predicts A Nail-Biter

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.02.2014 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- The race for control of the U.S. Senate remains very much in doubt, coming down to a coin flip based on current voter preferences as mea...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: New Survey Gives McConnell An Edge In Kentucky

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.02.2014 | Politics

A new poll gives Republicans the edge in Kentucky. Forecasters weigh in on election polling. And we're looking forward to debuting our new Senate dash...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Political Scientists Weigh In With Midterm Predictions

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.29.2014 | Politics

Political scientists gathered in DC to argue over just how good the midterms will be for the GOP. We weigh in with our own revamped Senate model. And ...

Mark Blumenthal

HuffPost Pollster Refines Senate Poll Tracking Model Before 2014 Elections

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.29.2014 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- With just over nine weeks remaining before Election Day 2014, the contest for control of the U.S. Senate likely hinges on the outcome of...

Looking Back At America's Changing Opinions On Unions

Kathleen Weldon | Posted 08.29.2014 | Politics
Kathleen Weldon

On May 14, 1882, unionized workers in New York City held a parade and picnic, and the seeds of the Labor Day holiday were planted. About 50 years late...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Recession Leaves Americans Pessimistic About Jobs

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.28.2014 | Politics

Americans are deeply pessimistic about the state of the economy. A Republican poll is deeply pessimistic about the GOP's outreach toward women. And op...

Breaking: GOP Has a Woman Problem! But Does It Matter?

Margie Omero | Posted 08.28.2014 | Politics
Margie Omero

Here's a tough question for the left: Can Republicans still be successful even as they continue to alienate a majority of the electorate? In midterms, the answer is undoubtedly yes.

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Polls Show Close Races In Iowa, Wisconsin

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.27.2014 | Politics

Two new polls confirm highly competitive races for governor in Wisconsin and U.S. Senate in Iowa. Republicans say they are paying more attention to th...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Republicans Increasingly Optimistic About Midterm Chances

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.26.2014 | Politics

Republicans are increasingly optimistic about the midterms, but not as much as they were in 2010. The electoral landscape continues to look pretty muc...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Does Hating Congress Lead To Higher Turnout?

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.25.2014 | Politics

Gallup finds that turnout correlates with congressional approval, based on just six elections. Daily Kos launches another poll based Senate forecast. ...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Stop Freaking Out Over The Results Of One Poll

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.23.2014 | Politics

A new poll shows a distinctly different picture of the New Hampshire Senate race than other surveys. Reactions to the shooting and protests in Ferguso...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: Reviewing The Polls On Ferguson, The Police And Racial Tensions

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.21.2014 | Politics

National polls shed light on the broader issues raised by the Ferguson, Missouri police shooting. Fewer Americans are naming the economy as the most i...

Mark Blumenthal

HUFFPOLLSTER: North Carolina's Senate Race Remains Competitive

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.20.2014 | Politics

The North Carolina Senate race is close. Gallup finds a racial gap in views of the police. And four political scientists argue that presidential poll ...