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Pollster Analysis

Mark Blumenthal

Obama Bounce Likely After Bin Laden Killing | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 07.02.2011 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- While the killing of al Qaeda mastermind Osama bin Laden lacks true historical precedent, polling following similar events suggests that...

Dress Sizes 'Outliers'

Posted 06.29.2011 | Home

Survey Practice reports on the higher costs of cell phone interviewing. Michael Kazin wonders if independents are a clueless horde, John Sides obje...

Mark Blumenthal

How Many Americans Are Actually Birthers? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.28.2011 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- The release of President Barack Obama's long-form birth certificate Wednesday took many observers by surprise. Many pundits questioned t...

Mark Blumenthal

Americans Are Unsure Of The GOP Medicare Plan | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.27.2011 | Politics

The latest tracking poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation finds strong opposition to the notion of Medicare cuts or premium increases. But the survey r...

Likable Enough 'Outliers'

Posted 06.21.2011 | Politics

Larry Sabato releases his first map for 2012. Charlie Cook thinks 2012 could break the pattern of wave elections. Marc Ambinder gives Obama a "r...

Emily Swanson

Polls: Republicans Lack Enthusiasm For Their Presidential Hopefuls | Emily Swanson | Posted 06.21.2011 | Politics

Republican presidential contenders face a lack of visibility or enthusiasm among their base nationwide, according to two new polls released this week....

Emily Swanson

Polls: Do People Want To Legalize Pot? | Emily Swanson | Posted 06.19.2011 | Politics

Support for marijuana legalization is slowly rising, like the cloud of smoke you'll see above Ann Arbor's 4/20 rally Wednesday. Data compiled by th...

No Evidence Obama Deficit Speech Backfired

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 06.19.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

Today, NBC's First Read newsletter suggested that Obama's approval ratings are down as a result of his deficit speech last week. But political events rarely have a significant effect on public opinion.

How Political Science Can Help Journalism

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 06.18.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

I have an article in the new issue of The Forum with John Sides of George Washington University and The Monkey Cage about how reporters can use politi...

Republicans Continue to Alienate Voters: This Time on the Environment

Margie Omero | Posted 06.18.2011 | Green
Margie Omero

Americans do not want to see weakened protection of environment. Republicans -- once again -- risk overplaying their hands by showing such enthusiasm for unpopular positions.

Brawling 'Outliers'

Posted 06.15.2011 | Politics

John Chait and Andrew Gelman brawl over election fundamentals and candidate characteristics. Steven Hayward discusses Obama's reelection prospects....

Mark Blumenthal

Polls Shows Opposition To Medicare Cuts | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.15.2011 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- This afternoon, the U.S. House of Representative will vote on the Republican budget plan proposed by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) that would ...

Mark Blumenthal

Pawlenty's Poll Numbers: Not Such A 'Nightmare' | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.13.2011 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's unofficial campaign for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination hit a speed bump of sorts last night. ...

Mark Blumenthal

Trump's Polls: A Reality Check | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.12.2011 | Politics

WASHINGTON - Donald Trump a 2012 presidential frontrunner? Seriously? That was the way many pundits reacted last week when NBC News and the Wall S...

Was the Budget Deal an Overreaction to the Election?

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 06.12.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

2010 may be something of a "soft mandate" year, empowering Republicans and pushing Obama and the Democrats to accept deals they otherwise would not have considered.

Statistically Significant 'Outliers'

The Huffington Post | Emily Swanson | Posted 06.11.2011 | Politics

Chris Good notes that poll respondents aren't particularly good at predicting the future. Pat Caddell says Rep. Ryan's budget is leading Republicans ...

Mark Blumenthal

Wisconsin Election Bombshell: How Plausible? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.09.2011 | Politics

UPDATE: 11:20 p.m. -- Perhaps the most convincing evidence so far that human error explains the initial omission of Brookfield's results comes from ou...

The (Not Very) Non-Partisan WI Supreme Court Race

Thomas M. Holbrook | Posted 06.07.2011 | Politics
Thomas M. Holbrook

While the 2011 race stands out as somewhat more partisan than previous contests, there's nothing particularly non-partisan about Wisconsin's Supreme Court elections.

LIVE Q&A: Ask A Polling Expert Anything

Jake Bialer | Posted 06.07.2011 | Politics

With Barack Obama's reelection announcement and the ever more frequent public statements from Republican primary contenders, the 2012 election cycle i...

Mark Blumenthal

Polls: Tea Party Roadblock To Budget Compromise | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.06.2011 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Two new national polls confirm the political underpinnings of the ongoing budget stalemate: Most independent and Democratic voters want ...

Worker's Rights Polls: The Difference A Word Can Make?

Douglas Schwartz | Posted 06.06.2011 | Politics
Douglas Schwartz

When pollsters ask people for their view on whether collective bargaining should be limited for public employees should pollsters call collective bargaining a "right"?

IA-2012 Primary: 21% Huckabee, 14% Romney, 9% Trump, 8% Gingrich, 7% Palin (Neighborhood 3/29-4/1)

Posted 06.06.2011 | Politics

Neighborhood Research (R) 3/29-4/1/11; 319 likely Republican primary voters, 5.5% margin of error Mode: Live telephone interviews Neighborhood release...

Mark Blumenthal

Polls: Public Wants Compromise On Budget, Volatile On Blame | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.06.2011 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- A subtle difference in wording appears to explain drastic differences between two sets of polls that gauge whether the public would hold...

Mark Penn Wrong on "Historical Odds" of Obama Victory

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 06.06.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

If we properly account for FDR's three victories, there's no difference in re-election performance between the parties. Republicans have had more individuals get re-elected during the same period.

Emily Swanson

Polls: Public Split On Who To Blame In Government Shutdown | Emily Swanson | Posted 06.05.2011 | Politics

Two polls released this week show a public split on whether to blame Republicans or Democrats if the federal government shuts down later this week. T...