Recession Fears

The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that U.S. top economist Edward Lazear says he doesn't believe the United States economy is in a recession. I'm thrilled to hear someone out there isn't experiencing economic angst, but clearly the chair of the Council of Economic Advisors hasn't gone shopping lately....

From CNBC:

"Main Street has just entered the act. The peak of the pain is not visible yet," said Asha Bangalore, an economist with Northern Trust in Chicago.

The consumer strains are well-documented. Aside from the credit contraction, gasoline and grocery prices are on the rise, the housing...

With the release of the latest GDP report, the possibility of a consumer lead recession just increased.

First, before today's GDP report there was a series of charts that caused me great concern. Here they are in the appropriate order.

Year over year job growth has been deteriorating...

Economic fear grips millions of American families. We are afraid of the recession that has arrived and the economic changes that have been taking shape. We are afraid for our absolute and relative performance. Unemployment, credit restrictions, rising food and energy costs are on our minds. Falling house prices and...

Yesterday, Bernanke testified on capital hill. His testimony, which is available on the Federal Reserve's website, offers a good overview of how the Fed views the economy.

It's also important to remember the Fed is as much a political player as it is an economic player. While a...

When an institution of government decides that it is alright to privatize profits on the way up but nationalize subsequent losses on the way down, you know that something deeply undemocratic is playing out. The ideas that have been ventilated this week by Hank Paulson, supported incidentally by the major...

"Investment pornography" is generally attributed to the respected financial journalist Jane Bryant Quinn. She defined it in the following quote:

You know the stories: The Top Ten Mutual Funds to Buy Now, How to Double Your Money This Year, personality profiles that read like fan magazines. Stock-touting pieces that...

The other day, I listened to Latin American economists and business leaders discuss the US recession. The Mexican central bank governor, referring to the carnage on Wall Street, the sub-prime crisis, and the credit crunch, jokingly remarked: ''At least WE didn't cause it this time."

He was referring to the...

The theory of decoupling suggests that emerging markets have broadened and deepened to the point that they no longer depend on the United States for growth, leaving them insulated from a U.S. recession.

Several analysts have claimed that decoupling is a load of rubbish, while others swear by it....

One thing to keep in mind as we live through the pain of this deepening recession: It didn't have to happen.

Sure, recessions are part of the natural economic order, implicit in the yin and yang of the business cycle. But often they're brought on by some external shock, like...