DOHA -- "You cannot underestimate Obama," claimed New York Times columnist Roger Cohen to an unconvinced audience of 300 at the Qatar-based Doha Debates last night. He and Sami Abu Roza, former adviser to the Palestinian President, tried to make the case for Obama's Middle East peace efforts. In the end, however, they could not overcome the skepticism of a crowd of young Arabs -- from Egypt to Qatar and everywhere in between -- and others, as the proverbial House voted 58% in favor of the resolution that "Obama is too weak to make peace in the Middle East." Abu Roza and Cohen's counterparts -- Ahmed Moussali of the American University of Beirut and Philip Weiss a Jewish-American blogger and journalist -- played to the largely Arab audience's experience with empty promises of the past. While the vote was decisive, if it was taken in Egypt, Syria, Jordan, or even Palestine, it would have been even more so. What happened to the New Beginning in Obama's outreach to the Muslim world?
When the President opened his speech with a familiar "Assalaamu alaykum" in Cairo not even a year ago, you could feel the hearts of millions of Muslims flutter with hope for the future. Then he proclaimed, "America will not turn our backs on the legitimate Palestinian aspiration for dignity, opportunity, and a state of their own." It was nearly a watershed moment in U.S.-Arab relations. Nearly. There was a significant boost in the approval of his presidency in the Arab world. A Gallup survey found that between March and July 2009 (the speech was given in June), Obama's approval rating jumped for example from 7 to 20% in the Palestinian Territories, from 25% to 37% in Egypt, and from 22% to 55% in Bahrain. Yet, as Philip Weiss argued during the debate, "even I was a believer then" but now I think the obstacles he faces in reaching a Middle East peace are too great. Those obstacles have manifested themselves largely in the form of a powerful Israeli lobby in the U.S. and a recalcitrant Congress that has rebuffed Obama's recent "spanking" -- as Cohen and Weiss termed it -- of Israel.
The Doha Debates is a rare and unique forum in the heart of the Middle East that facilitates open and critical discussion of sensitive issues. Founded and presided over by BBC presenter Tim Sebastian, its audience includes a diverse smattering of young Arabs -- as well as Westerners and others -- mostly students that provides a ready pulse on current trends. In this debate, which will air on BBC in early May, the audience, while sympathetic to Obama, did not feel he could overcome the challenges, with one audience member even challenging the notion that any President was strong enough. That was a position that Cohen took exception to, point out that Obama overcame questions about his racial and religious identity, and the campaign machines of Clinton and McCain to ascend to the Presidency. Yet, Weiss, audience members and Arab academic Moussali were adamant that it was only weakness on display when Netanyahu embarrassed Biden during his visit with the announcement of 1,600 new housing units in East Jerusalem. And Obama was further emasculated when 76 Senators sided with Netanyahu rather than the President after the dust-up, chiding any public criticism of Israel.
The Arab street -- which apparently exists although I have not seen it on any map -- is waiting. Yet, perhaps this is where the real discussion needs to happen. Is Obama truly the indispensable savior? The wait for Messiah Obama and the fear of a coterie of-DC based lobbying groups too often undermines the imaginative agency of people in the region. That is where Palestinian leaders such as politician and human rights campaigner Mustapha Barghouti, or Sami Abu Roza who was at last night's debate are starting to play an increasing role behind the scenes. They are supporting non-partisan (i.e. not Fatah or Hamas) Palestinian rallies and demonstrations and building links with the Jewish lobby group J Street who will be touring the West Bank in the coming weeks. They are shifting the 'fight' from the arena of violence to the International Court of Justice and other non-violent forums. Whether or not Obama is too weak or not disregards the fact that Palestinians and Arabs themselves will have to provide strong leadership themselves to lead the way to peace.
Yet, despite these activities and peace efforts supported by the U.S. even the self-admitted optimist Abu Roza offered an ominous warning: the window for a two state solution "ends in 2011."