Did Ahmadinejad Actually Win?

Kenneth Ballen and Patrick Dougherty have written an op-ed stating that the election results actually manifest what they revealed in their independent pre-election polling. I was at the event where their data was released.

Allegations of fraud and electoral manipulation will serve to further isolate Iran and are likely to increase its belligerence and intransigence against the outside world. Before other countries, including the United States, jump to the conclusion that the Iranian presidential elections were fraudulent, with the grave consequences such charges could bring, they should consider all independent information. The fact may simply be that the reelection of President Ahmadinejad is what the Iranian people wanted. - Ken Ballen and Patrick Dougherty

What to believe? According to many calculations, "two-thirds of Iran's population is less than 30 years old" (via Slate). There is no evidence that these young people supported Ahmadinejad. So where does that leave us all? We may never know the truth, just what will be our reality, as well as Pres. Obama's as he and the world continue to try to engage the regime.

As I wrote in my post at the time Ballen unveiled the results, which is here, TFT's results showed a plurality intending to vote for Ahmadinejad (live Twitter reporting feed here). Ballen's article mimics what Flynt Leverett said to Spiegel over the weekend (who was also at the event), that indeed, there should be no surprise that Ahmadinejad won; that the only surprise would have been that he didn't. Iranian incumbent presidents have never lost re-election, though Leverett did say the margin was a surprise. No kidding.

Something has shifted in Tehran, it seems to me, even if it doesn't mean the election "results" will not be solidified. In the aftermath of the results, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered an investigation into allegations of fraud. After the Supreme Leader said no protests would take place, one clearly took place today, with it even being shown on Iranian TV. Though Mousavi is to call for his supporters to remain calm, but to also not to appear anti regime. Was there a deal struck or has the reaction from the Iranians over the election caught the regime off guard and scared them enough of what could ensue that they are giving the revolutionaries against Ahmadinejad their days to vent?

After CNN took a real hit this weekend over their lack of coverage of the Iranian election blow back, they seem to have gotten the message, though they will never catch up with HuffPost's Nico Pitney's chronicle. Considering their ratings slump you would think they'd have jumped on this historic moment, but that, by all accounts was not the case:

Untold thousands used the label "CNNfail" on Twitter to vent their frustrations. Steve LaBate, an Atlanta resident, said on Twitter, "Why aren't you covering this with everything you've got?" About the same time, CNN was showing a repeat of Larry King's interview of the stars of the American Chopper show. For a time, new criticisms were being added on Twitter at least once a second. ...

Via Tehran bureau we get more evidence that the Supreme Leader and Mir Mousavi seem to have come to an agreement to calm things down, not incite.

# there's a march from Azadi to Enghelab going on in tehran now.
# 3 hrs ago, this came in: "Pls do this so SEPAH [IRGC] has no excuse to hurt us. about 3 hours ago from web
# Please let everyone know in Iran that Mr. Mosavi asked all the supporters whom participating inabout 3 hours ago from web
# in today's demonstration to carry Imam Khomeini's picture, these will bring security to people and also won't allow opposition group toabout 3 hours ago from web
# to label Mosavi's supporters as an anti regime.about 3 hours ago from web

I remain skeptical of the results for reasons I've outlined, so subtle pressure doesn't hurt, as long as the U.S. doesn't repeat history's mistakes by appearing to meddle. Remember Mosaddeq.

Everyone needs to take a deep breath, especially if you're not in Iran and are sitting safely behind the walls of our democratic republic.

Taylor Marsh reports from Washington, D.C., and you can also follow her on Twitter, as well as through her podcasts, "TM-DC".

Comments

[av2ts]

There is no evidence that these young people supported Ahmadinejad.

The polling showed that "18-to-24-year-olds comprised the strongest voting bloc for Ahmadinejad of all age groups." Don't worry, the rest of the media missed this point (and story) too.

I really hope the West is right, that there was massive electoral fraud. Otherwise, the Iranian people are truly going to lose whatever hope they had in the "reformers" and the West. I can't believe all the people (on the left, right and center) willing to assert they know for sure that fraud took place. It does not matter, that there is no proof.

[Hanzi Lai]

What if it is really true, I venture to challenge the democracy-laden, self-righteous western mindset that no matter what, Ahmadinejad cannot possibly win. How much do we know about Iran anyway, after all the years of biased media coverage and government meddling in the Middle-East ? True, Iran's conservatives are shooting themselves in the foot by not doing more to guarantee fairness and transparency. True, there are all sorts of deficiencies about Iran you can point a finger at. But hey, can we all stomach the fact that Iranians could possibly want someone like Ahmadinejad to lead them ?

We have become masters of the stereotype, the caricature, that someone who is a vitriolic ant-Western demagogue that is Ahmadinejad will also be correspondingly oppressive, corrupt and despotic. This is not a defense of Ahmadinejad and I would rather see him go but the real question is can we move beyond our self-interested knee-jerk reactions and look from the perspective of the other side for once.

[JustAnotherScreenname]

Thank you for your collected analysis Taylor. I know you think the results are fishy, but please, we can't give the least bit credence to the ridiculous TFT results. The vote WAS stolen. Why else would so many people risk death to protest it?

[Taylor Marsh - Huffpost Blogger]

Since you missed it, let me add what I said in the opening paragraph, further revealing my skepticism:

What to believe? According to many calculations, "two-thirds of Iran's population is less than 30 years old" (via Slate). There is no evidence that these young people supported Ahmadinejad.

[Rick Desper]

It is distressing to see Taylor Marsh buying into the egregiously deceptive argument of Ballen and Dougherty, presented in today's Washington Post. Ballen and Dougherty loudly proclaim that Ahmadinejad had a "2-1 lead" in their polling. While Marsh concedes that this represented a "plurality", it was only a margin of 34%-14%. It is ludicrous to suggest that a public opinion poll showing support at a level below 35% in any way supports election reports that claim he won 67% of the vote. We can easily reconcile the Ballen-Dougherty poll with predictions made last week by Saeed Lalyaz, who estimated that Mouravi had support of 55%-60% of the country. But we cannot reconcile that letter projection with the claim that Mouravi saw his support halved in the last three days.
I am all for being open-minded and letting the data speak for itself, but the data from Iran is exceptionally troubling. We are supposed to believe that Mouravi and Ahmadinjead garnered identical percentages in polling around the nation, with no variation according to regional differences or to represent the urban/rural split in culture.

Such an attitude is not open-mindedness. It is avoidance of reality.

[Taylor Marsh - Huffpost Blogger]

With due respect, I have not bought in to anything. In fact, as I did last night at my blog, I questioned Flynt Leverett as well. I've written about the trouble with experts on more than one occasion.

If you read the post you will see it written plainly, quoting from the post above: I remain skeptical of the results for reasons I've outlined...