1. Sarah Palin is a gift to the Republican base, who has been energized by her presence, which could bring them out in droves. She's already inspired $10 million in fundraising, something McCain has never seen before, with last night's speech making her the first real Republican star in decades.
2. Sarah Palin neutralizes Joe Biden, compliments of the latest media myth, both on the stump and in debates through the "Rick Lazio" factor.
3. Hillary is not the vice presidential nominee. We wouldn't have Palin if she were.
4. Obama nixed the 527s, which can't get up and running this late and be as effective as they could have been.
5. Palin is now a heroine of wingnut radio because of cultural issues, their political manna, which will further fire up the base, utilizing Karl Rove's main tool to get out the vote: talk radio's outreach.
6. People don't vote on issues, they vote on emotion. McCain's war hero story is real and moves voters on many levels.
7. George W. Bush can manufacture national security opportunities that would give McCain an advantage.
8. People say they will, but actually won't vote for someone different from themselves.
9. Republicans are disciplined, fall in line and fight like hell to win no matter what's required, including play dirty. Democrats are not, do not and will not. See Joe Lieberman, who should have been neutered politically long ago.
10. IOKIYAR = It's OK If You're A Republican. If Palin was a Democrat her tawdry soap opera story, investigation that could result in a report being released right before November, and ridiculously weak resume would be used to beat the Democratic presidential nominee into submission by the right-wing, until she was pulled, ala Eagleton. Cue Karl Rove on Tim Kaine:
"With all due respect again to Governor Kaine, he's been a governor for three years, he's been able but undistinguished," Rove said. "I don't think people could really name a big, important thing that he's done. He was mayor of the 105th largest city in America."
Rove continued: "So if he were to pick Governor Kaine, it would be an intensely political choice where he said, `You know what? I'm really not, first and foremost, concerned with, is this person capable of being president of the United States?
But because Sarah Palin is a Republican, she's cast as the political savior of the beleaguered and broken brand, because, well, see #9.
Taylor Marsh is a political analyst who's been seen on CNN and MSNBC, talk radio personality, and author. Twittering politics from the Dem convention thru the general election.