In the wake (in many senses of the word) of the aptly-named Sandy, an "October surprise" that actually proved that the Weather Bureau could sometimes be very right, let's see if we can forecast a few more tricks and treats to come in our new month. Make it a "top 10" list!
10) Chris Christie again makes it all about him. The man who gave the Republican National Convention keynote (maybe we should say "Me-note") address, has managed to change his wingman from Romney to Obama as he himself looks to re-election next year and a 2016 presidential campaign that even he wouldn't dare run against a Republican incumbent. (He should be so lucky!)
9) The biggest Senate election surprise may be that Bob Kerrey, forgotten weeks ago when he was down 25 percent against Tea Party rancher Deb Fischer, is back within a hair of winning in Nebraska and saving that seat and maybe the Senate majority for the Democrats -- not to mention bringing some bipartisan sanity to a Congress that needs it even more than New Jersey needs gasoline.
8) Because of recounts and the need to consider provisional ballots in several swing states, we may not know the presidential election result until a week or two down the road -- i.e., even longer than it will take ConEd to restore electrical service in New York.
7) If Obama wins the Electoral College, there will a move by Rush Limbaugh acolytes in the Republican Party to impeach the president over Benghazi.
6) Also if Obama wins very narrowly, there will be strong efforts to find a 21st century "faithless elector" who will shift his or her ballot to throw the election to Romney if he is the one who triumphed in the popular vote.
5) The imminent collapse of -- you guessed it, the Greek bailout -- will be an even bigger financial story this month than the "fiscal cliff" gridlock or a "hung" presidential election in the U.S.
4) When all the corporate reports for the third quarter are finally tabulated, we will again find, as we did in the first two quarters of this year, that the hedge funds and their allies on CNBC have again snookered average investors into selling their stocks because earning would surely be down in aggregate for the first time since 2009, that earnings were actually up by a percent or more. When will we learn that shills for short sellers are no more credible than boom-stock promoters?
3) Forecasters will recognize that because Thanksgiving comes a week "earlier" this year because the month starts on a Thursday, Christmas consumption should be quite strong, boosting retail stocks and returning a shine to Apple.
2) The biggest "loser" in the overall election results -- regardless of whether Romney or Obama wins the presidency -- will be the Tea Party (but they won't believe it).
1) The Electoral College could actually end up tied -- see my previous blog -- which would only give us the result our political polarization deserves! May the Lord have mercy!
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