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Questioning Hillary Clinton's 'Victory' in Pennsylvania: The Rush Limbaugh Effect
What if Democratic voters and the uncommitted superdelegates come to learn that Rush Limbaugh had a greater impact on Hillary Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania, and maybe Texas and Ohio, than say, the Reverend Wright, and the so-called 'bitter' comments? Would such a finding influence how voters view the Pennsylvania 'victory?'
If my thesis is correct, you have to ask yourself why so many Republicans want Hillary Clinton to run against John McCain in November.
Here is what we know: Approximately 160,000 Pennsylvania Republicans, Independents and/or new voters registered as Democrats in the months preceding the April 22 Primary. Media reports widely credit the tanking economy, health care crisis, and war in Iraq for Republican disillusionment. But wait--let's look at those very impressive numbers a little closer and compare the re-registration data to say, California. Pennsylvania is the home of approximately 12 million residents while California is the home of almost 38 million residents, over three times the size of Pennsylvania. So we might expect the California re-registration figures to climb to about three times the number of Pennsylvania's re-registrants.
But that isn't the case.
At 170,000 new Democrats, California, the most populous state, and arguably the state widely considered as being the most likely to hop on the latest bandwagon, roughly approximated the Pennsylvania experience, prior to its Primary election on Super Tuesday.
Something's not right.
In the weeks between Super Tuesday and April 22, the date of the Pennsylvania Primary, the circular firing squad occurring between the two Democratic campaigns increased both Democratic candidates' unfavorability ratings, while McCain began to win against both candidates in hypothetical match-up polls, for the first time. If distressed Republicans wanted to bail out of their Party, common sense suggests that they'd have been much more likely to do so after McCain locked up the GOP nomination but before Clinton and Obama began to engage in the 24/7 mud wrestling match leading up to the Pennsylvania campaign.
I've worn a lot of hats in my life, one of which was to serve as a Democratic strategist for congressional and statewide campaigns, and the other, as the Democratic Party's Voter Registration Chair for the most evenly split county in the nine county San Francisco Bay Area. I have conducted over 100 voter registration events in front of area Target stores, Farmers' Markets, at the mall, in schools and colleges and at area train stations in the last several years. I have talked to voters of every age, color, religion, socio-economic class, and gender. I have observed one common characteristic of authentically disillusioned Republicans.
They share with me that they are torn about their decision to register out of the Party of their parents. Almost reverently, they talk about the Republican Party they grew up with, and often articulate a concern that their family not learn about their defection. And in almost all cases, and I've helped hundreds of voters re-register -- they leave their Grand Old Party by first going to Decline to State -- and then, after placing their newly liberated toes in the water by voting Democratic several cycles in a row -- they take the plunge and re-register Democratic.
Very few Republicans boldly go all the way to Democratic in one fell swoop if they are serious about their voting.
I looked for answers. Like most people who've been paid to deliver Democratic strategy, I've mostly ignored self-important Rush Limbaugh's claims that his Operation Chaos is responsible for the large number of re-registrants voting for Hillary in the last several contests. Because I've worked with voters for 8 years and I know first-hand just how difficult it is to get voters to change their parties. But then it hit me when I compared the Pennsylvania numbers to California's. The voters I was dealing with for 8 years were saying good-bye to something that meant something. I sensed sadness, betrayal almost, as I stood by, clipboard in hand, helping voters leave the party of their parents. I have often compared this transition to the changing of one's religion -- it is that difficult when authentically done.
And that's the key. I believe that Rush's Operation Chaos is at play here and authenticity has nothing to do with too may new Democratic registrants in the last contests. This re-registration is, I believe, being undertaken at Rush's suggestion to cynically stretch this contest out -- as long as possible -- so that Hillary's promised kitchen sink theory -- will end up driving both candidates' negatives through the roof so that neither is likely to win against McCain.
Voters in upcoming contests will always be swayed by the outcome of preceding contests. It's human nature to be influenced by the wisdom of those who've gone before us. But if I'm right -- and the outcome in Pennsylvania, and perhaps Mississippi, Texas, and Ohio were influenced by Rush's call to Republicans to keep Hillary in the race longer -- Democratic voters in Indiana and North Carolina, and the states that follow, deserve to know that we're being manipulated.
Cross-posted from The Environmentalist
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In late February, Rush Limbaugh launched Operation Chaos. March 4, Hillary Clinton "won" the Texas and Ohio primaries, and McCain clinched his party's nomination, and Republicans were free to make mischief in the Democratic camp. Happenstance? Coincidence? I don't think so!
and the clintons are up to their eyeballs in this whole mess - she selfrighteously stomps the stage about not disenfranchising the voters in florida and michigan
every republican talking head in every little nook and cranny of media-america is uniformly positive towards hillary
There needs to be a solution to operation chaos which I propose is that Rush be prosecuted for voter fraud or tampering with the election process. He is such a foul mouthed bigoted pig of a man and the voters who do his bidding are idiots! well for that matter, Rush's listeners are low intelligent spineless creeps who reward a drug addict with lots of money! Everytime I see that bigoted man with his cigar in his mouth and I only wish he had served jail time for his illegal prescrition drug offenses....I would love to hear his squeal from from the jail...from his new friends there!
May I ask what foul-mouthed pronunciations you have heard from Rush? I listen regularly, and don't hear them.
I'm so glad to hear, often, that the much vaunted tolerance of the Left is merely a lie spread by that same Left. You can see and hear the tolerance dripping from every word.
Semper fi
Typical Rush listener... finds the needle in the haystack and tries to convince everyone the haystack is made of needles.
Rush isn't doing anything illegal with this operation chaos stuff, so he should absolutely not be prosecuted for it.
Having said that, I'm in agreement with the rest of your post.
From the Indianapolis Star:
10:51 AM -- 'Hardcore' Republicans voting Democrat
The two precincts at Broad Ripple Family Center selected Republican Jon Elrod over Democrat Andre Carson in March's special election for U.S. Congress. But by 9 a.m., just 21 voters in one of those precincts had requested Republican ballots -- out of 168 cast.
Amid heavy turnout, Republicans appeared to be crossing over in droves today in Marion County and suburban counties, where fewer Republican voters might impact down-ticket primary races...
...Ward-Bopp voted for the Democrat she liked, but Jim Adams, 36, voted for Hillary Clinton to keep the race going beyond Indiana. He's a McCain backer and enjoys watching the Democrats fight.
Thanks, Rush. Thanks, Hillary.
You know she's loving it.
UNITED WE WIN.....
Today's article and the chaotic responses splashed in this blog, is similar to the old fools tale that talks about the soothsayer who predicts famine.
All those who foolishly fell for the soothsayer's trick, bought all the food and stored it away. By doing so they caused an unusual food shortage. The food they stored began to rot and had to thrown away, thereby causing the famine the soothsayer predicted.
When Hillary gets the DNC nomination the Obama bandwagoners will jump of the DNC train. Most of them because they owe NO ALLEGIANCE to the principles and ideology of the Democratic Party. . They will promise or threaten NOT TO SUPPORT THE DNC NOMINATION if it is Hillary , for devious reasons.
This same group, of wealthy Americans will have the means to try and divide the DNC, and blame it on Hillary. Just like the spoilt rich boy and his ball, the Obama supporters will want to "mash up" the Party, and take their support home.
These are the conditions under which John McCain will have a chance to win the Presidency. A united and strong DNC wins the election everytime.
So in the final analysis, the fear of ...John McCain beating the Democratic nominee depends on the strenght of the DNC's message and the fighting and winning capabilities of the nominee, AND MOST IMPORTANT IT DEPENDS ON THE UNITY OF THE DNC.
United win ..divided McCain wins.
.
It takes independents to win an election. Obama has them, Hillary does not. Get over it.
Exit polls from the open primary states show the influence of Operation Chaos is clear and substantial, easily enough to account for Clinton's popular vote margin in Texas and to have padded her margin in Ohio. Less clear in Pennsylvania which has a closed primary, but I suspect there's some influence there, too. In the open primaries before Operation Chaos, the Republican vote in Democratic primaries ranged from 3% (New Hampshire, California, Maryland) to 7% (Virginia), and Obama won it handily, e.g., 72-23 in Virginia, 72-28 in Wisconsin. In the Operation Chaos states of Ohio and Texas, Republicans accounted for 9% of the Democratic primary vote and it split 49-49 in Ohio and only narrowly for Obama 53-46 in Texas. Similarly, the self-identified Conservative vote ranged from 8% (New Hampshire) to 14% (Wisconsin), with Obama generally winning that group by a wide margin, e.g., 73-24 in Virginia and 59-40 in Wisconsin. Post-Operation Chaos, Clinton took a larger fraction (48-48 in Ohio, 52-45 in Texas) of a much larger Conservative vote (14% in Ohio, 22% in Texas). If the Conservative and Republican vote in Democratic primaries in Texas and Ohio had resembled the previous open primaries, Obama would have narrowly carried Texas and cut Hillary's margin at least in half in Ohio. Conclusion: Operation Chaos has played a huge role in keeping Clinton's campaign alive on Limbaugh-supplied artificial life support. Superdelegates, beware!
This on Huffington now:
"Amid heavy turnout, Republicans appeared to be crossing over in droves today " It will be interesting to see what the exit polls tell us about Inidana. Seems there is very heavy Democratic voting in solidly Republican precincts.
And it's about to happen again in Indiana today. Hillary will win, largely based on the Republican crossover vote which will switch to McCain, come November. Are we really considering giving the nomination to the candidate the Republicans chose for us just so they can shoot her down in the Fall? Obama's vote count nationwide is actually his come November. Hers is being falsely inflated by the Rush Limbaugh nuts. I hope the Democratic leadership and superdelegates yet to endorse are paying attention.
They'll pay attention if their constituents pay attention, and the constituents will pay attention if the media pays attention.
The best thing that could come of this would be if it made big news and started a new controversy over whether or not Operation Chaos had succeeded.
Perhaps then the superdels would simply end it.
Frankly, the only thing that is wrong is the polls. Obama has consistently under preformed his polls numbers. This is across every state, not just PA or CA.
It is likely that people are just not saying that they will not vote for him. Conspiracy? Race? No, not at all.
Most of the actual polltakers are college kids enamored with Obama. Obama has spent huge amounts of money. Some Obama activists have bordered on fanaticism.
People are tired. It might be hard for some with so much energy to believe it, but chalk it up to Obama fatigue. Much more likely and logical.
heres an easy test...
if you believe that the gop would rather run against Hillary -
you dont understand politics.
if you believe rush voters effected ANY state's Dem primary -
youre an conspiracy minded idiot.
Are we clear?
Statistics, please . . .
The burden of proof is clearly on the conspiracy minded idiots.
You must think very highly of yourself. That's too bad.
Nope.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/03/17/many_voting_for_clinton_to_boost_gop/
Thank you Aleka4 for sharing one journalist's review of the possible impact of Operation Chaos. We need many more investigative journalists and TV pundits to seriously discuss the possibility that Republicans are crossing over, not because of a fundamental paradigm shift, but because they are part of a cynical effort to skew Democratic election results.
For those who have wondered, I contributed to Hillary. Not because I didn't like Obama. I very much appreciated his early stance against the war. But I believe we must win in November and didn't believe that any Dem contender could successfuly take on the Clintons without a protracted primary which could harm our chances in November.
Many strategists with more experience than I have do not like to credit adversaries for whom they have little respect. I say that we ignore Rush Limbaugh at our peril.
I have a day job, several kids, and very sadly, lost my mother--who had been with AP off and on for 3 decades in the last two weeks---I need to leave this issue to investigative journalists, hoping one will pick up on this story so that superdelegates and voters in upcoming contests have objective data to review before making their very important decision.
Best,
Terry Leach
I think the evidence is there that Republican crossovers are happening.
You must also remember that Rush fans are like robots.. they do what he says :)
I have a couple quesitons, which I have been meaning to ask.
(1) any update on the status of the recount in NH?
(2) any update on the bourgh recounts in NYC?
I'm wondering too about the New York borough counts. I find it awfully hard to believe that some precincts in Harlem had NO votes for Obama, not ONE. Must have been Diebold voting machines.
Wait, what? Where did you see that?
As recently as the Wisconsin primary, 10 percent of the voters crossing over were Republicans, and over 70 percent of them went for Obama:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#WIDEM page 3
Vote by Party ID
Party (% of vote) Clinton Obama
Republican (9%) 28% 72%
Virginia:
Republican (7%) 23% 72%
In Ohio it evened out:
Republican (9%) 49% 49%
In PA Reps were below the noise:
Republican (3%) N/A N/A
But even independents were pretty even
Independents (11%) 52% 48%
In the earlier primaries where Obama built his lead he had heavy Republican support. Recently it appears to be even and minimal impact.
Based on actual data, this article appears to be total nonsense by more mindless Obama contrivers.
I know a lot of Wisconsinites who are voting for Obama. My 92- and 88-year old in-laws and most of their friends voted for Obama - and they've never NOT voted Republican in their lives. But they are truly frightened by what's happened to our nation and sincerely believe Obama will govern in the manner in which he has campaigned. They've got great-grandchildren and are voting for their future.
There's another variable that is important in considering Wisconsin's vote. For a rather small state, we have a fairly high proportion of college-educated voters. And our public schools in general tend to be among some of the best in the nation.
Actually, it appears that your numbers support the author's thesis.
Wrong conclusion. Limbaugh didn't start this operation chaos stuff until long after the Wisconsin primaries. .
Republicans like to throw out words like democracy and freedom. They then turn around and crossover to vote for Hillary who they admit they'll never vote for in the fall. Sounds more like THWARTING democracy and freedom to me. So glad you weasels really believe in the ideals of this nation. BASH!
Today, CNN has reported major republican turnout for Hillary in Indianna, as reported by local media in Indianna. The local radio talk show hosts reported that the republican's are voting for Hillary based on Limbaugh's push to vote for Hillary in order to elect McCain in November. Other blogs are reporting the same.
Not only does Rush not know who would be easier to beat in November, the delgate count (and today's victory in NC) and trends in superdelegate commitments point to an certain Obama nomination. Rush and the GOP are floundering because they have supported policy and politicians who have run the US into the ground.
A lot of Republicans in Indiana have figured out that 8 years of Bush has been a complete disaster:
""As far as I'm concerned, the Republicans have turned things to [expletive]," he says. "I'm working two jobs now just so I can put gas in my van."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/05/AR2008050502738_2.html
Flip-flopping, blooping, huggy-bear McCain will lose no matter who wins the nomination.
I sincerely hope Superdelegates are paying attention.
THANK YOU for the article. I live in TX and my neighbor is a die hard republican and Rush Limbaugh fanatic. He voted in the DEMOCRATIC primay!
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