by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Matt Corley, Benjamin Armbruster, Ian Millhiser and Nate Carlile
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Defense Secretary Robert Gates made headlines earlier this week when he said conditions in Iraq have improved to the point that the U.S. "may accelerate" the withdrawal of American forces, despite increased instability. "I think there is at least a chance of a modest acceleration" in the drawdown schedule, Gates said while traveling with key members of President Obama's national security team in the Middle East. The Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between the U.S. and Iraq that President Bush and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki agreed to late last year mandated that U.S. forces turn over responsibility for security inside cities and villages to Iraqi security forces on June 30. Iraqi forces now have the main responsibility for Iraq's internal safety, with U.S. troops acting in an advisory partnership role. Gates said that "another brigade of about 5,000 troops could leave by the end of December on top of the two brigades, or 10,000 troops, now scheduled to pull out this year." Gates added that Gen. Ray Odierno, the top commander of all forces in Iraq, agrees, and conditions on the ground have improved "quicker than expected." A day after Gates' remarks, an "unusually blunt memo" authored by Army Col. Timothy R. Reese was published. Reese argued that "Iraqi forces are competent enough to hold off Sunni insurgents, Shiite militias and other internal threats to the Iraqi government." Reese went even further, saying that American military presence in Iraq beyond 2010 will do little to improve the Iraqis' military performance while fueling growing resentment. "As the old saying goes, 'Guests, like fish, begin to smell after three days,'" Reese wrote, declaring that it is time "for the U.S. to declare victory and go home."
U.S.-IRAQI TENSION RISES: The suggestion of an accelerated withdrawal does not mean Iraq is currently without violence and tension. Iraqi leaders increasingly see last November's SOFA "as an opportunity to show their citizens that they are now unequivocally in charge and that their dependence on the U.S. military is minimal and waning." For example, last week, insurgents attacked an American convoy in a Baghdad suburb. When the shooting subsided, a "senior Iraqi army commander who arrived at the scene concluded that the Americans had fired indiscriminately at civilians and ordered his men to take the U.S. soldiers into custody," underscoring the "potential escalation of tensions" between U.S. and Iraqi forces. It was the first time a senior Iraqi commander has sought to detain U.S. soldiers. The Wonk Room's Peter Juul writes that the overall reduction in Iraqi violence has corresponded to an increase in political power for Maliki. "Maliki has gone from a weak and ineffectual leader to Iraq's most powerful political figure," Juul wrote, "Maliki has staked his legitimacy on two pillars -- the ability to achieve security and reclaiming national sovereignty from the United States." Seeking to downplay the tension, senior U.S. commanders labeled recent altercations between U.S. and Iraqi forces as "hiccups." A U.S. Army officer compared the Iraqis' fledgling independence to that of a "'16-year-old who just got his license and doesn't want to listen anymore but still wants you to pay for the gas and the insurance and bail them out of jail' when they mess up."
CAMP ASHRAF: While Gates was meeting with his commanders in Iraq, Iraqi forces made a surprise raid "on a camp of Iranian exiles previously under American protection." Camp Ashraf is home to about "3,400 Iranian exiles committed to the overthrow of the Islamic revolutionary government in Tehran." Although Saddam Hussein welcomed the camp, the new Iraqi government has closer ties with Iran. "The attack was the Iraqi government's boldest move since it declared its sovereignty a month ago and the latest sign that American influence is waning as Iranian clout rises," reported the Washington Post. The provincial government reported eight Iranians were killed and 400 injured. Seventeen Iraqi security officials were also wounded. The raid was emblematic of the intensifying disputes between Baghdad and Kurdish leaders, with the Shiite-led government arresting "several Sunni militia leaders allied with the United States," including a "prominent figure in the local Awakening Council." Sunni leaders have complained that the government has reneged on its promise to "integrate their members in the country's security forces." "It's our territory and it's our right to enter, to impose Iraqi law on everybody," said an Iraqi government spokesman. Under the SOFA pact, Iraqi security forces assumed responsibility for the camp three months ago from U.S. forces, which had disarmed the residents following the 2003 Iraq invasion.
MOVING FORWARD: In marking Iraq's "National Sovereignty Day," Obama said that the Iraqi people were "rightly treating this day as a cause for celebration" but noted that "there will be difficult days ahead." Iraqis have wanted U.S. troops to redeploy from Iraq for years. A September 2007 poll found that 79 percent of Iraqis opposed the presence of coalition forces in their country. Obama is sticking to a redeployment timeline -- a policy the Center for American Progress has strongly advocated for since 2005. Security questions remain, however. Roadside and suicide bombings are routine; just today, multiple bombs exploded near three Shiite mosque, killing at least 24 people. Amid the violence, however, CAP Senior Fellow Brian Katulis writes that "the United States needs to understand the limits of its power. The United States has a role to play in reconciliation through its diplomatic mission, but the success of that mission depends on America's ability to listen and offer concrete assistance without dictating a political solution."