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April 23, 2014

President Emeritus and Charles W. Eliot University Professor of Harvard University and former U.S. Treasury Secretary.

Will 2014 End Up Like 1914?

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Economic success does not assure peace, but economic failure and disintegration almost assures conflict. It is incumbent on the leaders of the major nations of the world to figure out how to achieve more rapid and sustained economic growth. A commitment to maintain strength, to uphold the international order, is an inherent and deeply-seated part of any successful global system. Great powers can never bluff. When they bluff, when their intentions are uncertain, they are tested. When they are tested, questions arise, and the prospect of conflict mounts.

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