Pavlov and the NBA

Do you recall a true upset in a playoff series? Me, neither. As long as the control of the outcome is in the hands of the 'trained' officials, the results will be no surprise.
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Back in high school psychology class, we all learned about Pavlov's dogs, and how the dogs had a conditioned response when an attractive reward was present. Basically, the dogs began to automatically salivate at the presentation of 'meat powder'. Soon, they began to salivate when the technician who had the meat powder walked in to the room, and so on. So, applying the analogy to basketball, imagine what the NBA's head office got the referees to do when they presented financial rewards! Let me explain.

In the 1970's, the NBA was mired in financial troubles. By '79, the eventual answer to the NBA's financial hardship was playing out in college basketball during the Division I championship between Indiana State and Michigan State. You might know the matchup: Larry Bird vs. Magic Johnson. Eventually, those names came to redefine basketball greatness, followed by North Carolina's Michael Jordan. People packed arenas to see any of these greats play -- better yet if they were playing each other. Tickets to witness a piece of basketball history were rare, and landing a pair would cost a fortune!

To keep this momentum going and capitalize on the popularity of superstar players, the NBA began to "adjust" the game. Afterall, it could not justify all the media hype, nationwide television coverage, the huge promotion dollars, and the monumental gate revenue if the superstars only saw limited playing time. There needed to be assurance that the stars everyone came to see would indeed be visible the entire game - especially if it went down to the wire in the final minutes. The superstar presence would continue to draw fans, bringing with them the revenue needed to keep the league afloat. Somehow, the NBA needed to capitalize on the celebrity that Bird, Magic, and Michael brought to the game.

In that regard, the NBA used management to control the game. The stars needed to stay on the court, and to ensure that, the same Pavlov principles applied to the dogs was about to be applied to the officials who called these games. After all, every referee is motivated to move up the status ladder, resulting in assignments to bigger games and greater financial rewards. By following the subtle directives of management, by making calls favoring certain players or teams, the officials reaped the benefits. Thus, the clever system of manipulating the outcomes of the games was born.

Enter Pavlov. Now that the officials were trained, they dutifully carried out the directives of management by following the diagrams and situations carefully selected to favor specific players and teams. This tactic proved particularly helpful come the playoffs, enabling stars to stay in the game to the delight of the fans, and the revenue stream was ensured. The NBA was on its way back to financial health.

Today, we find the same curious favortism with our modern day superstars. The formula to fix the troubled NBA was initially put in place as a stopgap measure -- to get the league back on a solid financial foundation. Bird, Magic, and Michael were just the beginning, paving the way for the eventual greed that took over. As long as the fans and the mass media networks were willing to pay the asking price, it made sense to the NBA elite to keep the Pavlov model instead of returning to objective officiating. The cash machine was well oiled and what the average fan didn't know would not hurt them. Any player who demonstrated marketing promise was immediately anointed with star status. The clever NBA marketers made sure each of their stars had their jerseys reproduced for sale, included signature shoes as part of the compensation package, flooded the market with autographed memorabilia, and ticket promotions ran wild.

It is no secret that promotion of the star players exists in all professional sports. But in this sport where the average player pulls down $5.5 million per season (not including playoff or sponsorship compensation), it is obvious that the stars of today like Kobe, LeBron, and Dwyane have taken the game and the business of basketball to new heights. While the names and faces have changed, the favoritism and marketing exploits has endured. Do you remember the last time any of these three, or any superstar, fouled out of a game? Do you recall a true upset in a playoff series? Me, neither. As long as the control of the outcome is in the hands of the 'trained' officials, the results will be no surprise. The marketers will continue along their specialized path, the revenue counters will continue to see growing numbers, the players and owners will become richer, and the padded bottom line of the NBA will skyrocket. If Pavlov only knew how smart his dogs really were!

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