Red State Falling?

Last night's news from Cuba that Fidel Castro has started his ninth and last life may have real consequences for US presidential politics. As we await the next deceptive medical bulletin (I remember how Franco and Tito lingered--must be something about dictators, they can't let go), we might consider what could happen to those single-issue Republican Cuban-American voters in Florida if they don't have Fidel to shake their fists at anymore. Fidel's brother and anointed successor Raul, who was once actually more pro-Soviet and anti-American than he, is now described as more pragmatic. But though he seems in better physical shape, Raul is 75 and his ability to last politically is questionable. He lacks Fidel's charisma and though as defense minister he has the army under control, he may not be able to hold things together for long. Readers interested in what comes next on the island should check out Brian Latell's superb recent book, After Fidel. As for Florida, will post-Fidelista immigrants vote for conservatives as the East Germans did immediately after gaining their liberty? Will most of the Cuban-Americans continue to vote for the GOP out of gratitude as older working-class voters did for Franklin Roosevelt's party until Ronald Reagan? Or will their concerns now shift to the bread and butter issues that Democrats poll well on? Impossible to know, but given the 50/50 nature of the electoral map this is one of those factors that makes our politics so fluid. As one red state disappears abroad, another one may disappear at home.