The following piece is published on Iowa Independent as well as HuffPost's OffTheBus.
With only one month remaining until Iowa's Jan. 3 caucuses, the only certainty found in the Des Moines Register's new Iowa poll is that the majority of caucusgoers remain uncertain. The poll found that just over half of likely Democratic caucusgoers who say they favor a candidate could change their minds, compared to the roughly 60 percent of Republican caucusgoers who say they could still be persuaded to support another candidate.
Couple this with the Register's findings that seven percent of likely Democratic and four percent of likely Republican caucusgoers are "Unsure/Uncommitted," one can surmise that the presidential race is still wide open on both sides of the political spectrum.
Conducted Nov. 25-28 by Selzer & Co. Inc. of Des Moines, the poll based its findings on interviews with 500 registered likely caucus-goers from each party, who were randomly selected from telephone numbers appearing on Iowa Secretary of State's current voter registration list. The poll carries a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Using this margin error and hypothesizing everyone polled stuck to their first presidential preference, the final order of the top three Democratic and top two Republican candidates could shake out in any order at this point. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois currently leads the Democratic pack with 28 percent, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton with 25 percent, and John Edwards rounding out the top three at 23 percent. On the Republican side, in the battle of former governors, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas now leads long-time Iowa frontrunner Mitt Romney 29 to 25 percent.
Adding to the uncertainty, the poll doesn't account for variables such as the winter-break exodus of college students, last-minute vacation plans, and, as all Iowans and a few of the presidential hopefuls experienced first-hand this weekend, inclement weather. Not to mention, there's still a month left of campaigning.
The poll did attempt to account for a few external variables, including the temptation of watching the Orange Bowl and the Bill Clinton factor. Five percent of likely Democratic and four percent of likely Republican caucusgoers said they were tempted to stay home caucus night and watch the Orange Bowl. Given this weekend's BCS shakeup and the projected border rivals in the Orange Bowl between West Virginia and Virginia Tech, odds are these numbers will go down even further. (Although, the number of expatriots from these states could not be found.)
Pollsters asked likely caucusgoers whether Bill Clinton's active participation in Hillary Clinton's campaign is more of an asset or more of an drawback for her politically. 71 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers saw the Bill Clinton factor as an asset, 15 percent saw his presence as a drawback, and 14 percent were not sure. The poll did not ask about the effect former President Clinton's rival spouses would play in the final push, nor did it account for the Oprah factor. Oprah Winfrey will campaign in Iowa next weekend for Obama.
Another significant variable the Register's poll measured, but has yet to publish the findings, was who likely caucusgoers considered to be their second choice and bottom choices. Caucusgoers' second-choice candidates play a significant role in the Democratic caucuses, in particular during the realignment period when they have the opportunity to realign with another candidate. Generally, this period is geared toward courting caucusgoers whose preferred candidate is not viable. However, caucusgoers aren't bound by their first preference groups and can be persuaded to switch their initial preferences.
Despite all the caucusgoers' uncertainties exposed by the Register's new poll, it may be important to note any momentum shifts when considering the poll's reliability. In 2004, the Register's poll was the only poll to pick up on John Kerry's momentum going into the final week of the '04 caucuses. That said, things look promising for Obama and Huckabee, for now. However, the only reliable poll won't come out until the late-night hours of Jan. 3.
Click here to view the full results of the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll.