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Tom Doctoroff

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A Chinese Century? Not Quite

Posted: 11/28/11 08:19 PM ET

In the narrowest sense, a superpower has the military might to force the world to acquiesce to hegemonic resolve (for example, the Soviet Union). Then there are economic superpowers that influence capital flows and global growth rates. When they struggle, the world does too. Finally, there are soft superpowers, nations that "own" universal values.

American strengths and weaknesses. In response to the brouhaha over the American debt ceiling, a correspondent for the German newspaper Die Welt wrote in July, 2011: "Out of the American twenty-first-century crisis could come the downfall of the dominant power of the twentieth century." His sentiments, perhaps overheated, are a reminder that nothing lasts forever. It is to be hoped that America's disorientation, triggered by the rise of China, political polarization, and a hangover of material self-indulgence, is not permanent. Even if GDP growth slows due to protracted deleveraging, the combination of a growing population and high per capita income ensures continued economic sway. America's military budget, currently eight times that of China, will continue to underpin geopolitical clout, even as the country's status of as an 800-pound gorilla diminishes in a multi-polar world.

American values -- as opposed to its political system -- will have global appeal for generations. Individualism -- the encouragement of society to define oneself independent of society -- does not travel well, but respect for the dignity of the common man touches all hearts. Iconic American brands such as Nike and Coke, vessels of hope, will never go out of style. American pop culture will not be challenged. Superstars -- from Lady Gaga to Michael Jackson to Angelina Jolie to Johnny Depp -- epitomize self-actualization, an aspiration that transcends culture.

China's soft power gap. China will undoubtedly evolve into an economic superpower. Its economy, within decades, will become the world's largest. Per capita disposable income will be constrained but aggregate spending power will be massive. China's industrial tentacles will be felt everywhere; traditional Chinese medicine will become more popular; and university students will learn Mandarin.

But China will not easily capture hearts and minds. The Chinese are ethnocentric. In large ways and small, an instinct to narrowly defend interests can be off putting:

First, the country maintains a chip on its shoulder regarding indignities suffered at the hands of foreigners between the Opium War and the establishment of Communist China in 1949. Strident outrage erupts whenever any country "hurts the feelings of the Chinese people."

Second, in a pinch, the government lapses into bullyboy petulance, throwing economic and military weight around the region. Diplomatic relationships with Japan and India are tetchy, largely because China remains brittle and insecure. Decades-long territorial disputes are unresolved.

Third, although Chinese society is more civil than a few years ago, daily life is still dog-eat-dog. Charity organizations are underdeveloped due to the party's reluctance to grant authority to any entity not under its direct control. Families, unprotected by rule of law, fend for themselves at the expense of individuals outside the clan. Anyone who fails to conform to convention -- for example, the handicapped or mentally ill, homosexuals, and AIDS patients -- is socially ostracized. Spitting and burping in public is commonplace. In crowded elevators and airplanes, mobile phone users lack volume control.

Fourth, Chinese, a language in which written and spoken forms are completely unrelated, remains a temple of linguistic exclusivity, a walled garden, frustratingly off limits to everyone but the most disciplined and determined foreigners. Every character requires memorization; every sentence must conform to structural imperatives.

When in Rome? Despite fascination with the world, the Chinese do not assimilate easily. China tries hard to be open -- road signs are bilingual, English is a passion, trade links are robust, macroeconomic policies during financial crises were constructive -- but, emotionally, the nation stands apart. Information is controlled. Defensive instincts militate against free and easy exchange of ideas. Until trust is established, foreigners are treated with polite suspicion. Manufacturers that acquire Western companies have difficulty integrating domestic and international management teams. The global footprint of China's state-controlled English-language news outlets is growing, but broadcasts are so dull international viewers tune out. The opening ceremony of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, impressive in scale and moving in ambition, lapsed into mawkish cliché when gears shifted from celebrating China's glory to preaching "One World, One Dream."

China's ability to leverage the assets of other cultures is peerless. Its superhighways are modeled after America's and major web portals are copycats of Western sites, tweaked for local users. The Party has also integrated itself into the fabric of the global trading system as a check against domestic weaknesses (for example, poor corporate governance, pliable standards of financial transparency). But, unless deemed "safe," foreigners are still confronted with awkward silences and robotic smiles. Bonding at the national level is a long ways off.

China will be an economic superpower only. There will be more than one tiger on the mountain.

Note: This article is adapted from my upcoming book, What Chinese Want: Culture, Communism and China's Modern Consumer, to be published by Palgrave Macmillan in May, 2012.

 
In the narrowest sense, a superpower has the military might to force the world to acquiesce to hegemonic resolve (for example, the Soviet Union). Then there are economic superpowers that influence cap...
In the narrowest sense, a superpower has the military might to force the world to acquiesce to hegemonic resolve (for example, the Soviet Union). Then there are economic superpowers that influence cap...
 
 
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11:00 AM on 12/12/2011
In a way, it's fantastic to see that now is the turn (as China experienced a few decades ago) for Americans to be immersed in the ocean of propaganda. Perhaps the better analogy is the Chinese living in the late 19th century. With no intention to offend, just a candid advice: if you cannot read Chinese but have to rely on English media for your source of information, then you'd better be cautionary in talking about an 'insular' China versus an 'open ' America. As to China's military growth, the author certainly is not blind to the fact that it is the US navy cruising around China, not vice versa.
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Charles Queen
I am a disabled nam vet
02:06 PM on 11/30/2011
Our rsponce to china attempting to move into the gulf region is to spend and upgrade etc anti sub war fare.As for china not liking us having a military presence in Australis,well,we don't like them trying to move into the gulf region so they really have nothing to cry about there.Their so called contribution to Pakistan amounts to around 2 billion a year,give or take a few bucks.We way out spend them there alreasdy and have been.Iceland dashed their hopes of gaining a foothold there.There motives were not really on the resort thing but rather to be able to gain on the oil and natural gas deposits and new shipping lanes which are going to emerge etc as the climate changes,iceland even said this as well
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DCinFrance
As a matter of fact, it's all dark.
05:10 AM on 11/30/2011
I work with the Chinese frequently. This article is pretty right on, and I look forward to reading the book.
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DAE
05:36 PM on 11/29/2011
Do you want to understand today's China. Go back to the Hundred Days Reform Movement of 1898 after China was defeated by Japan and was at the nadir of its power and influence. Young mandarin reformers wanted to "modernize" China. They were defeated and China fell further and further behind the West. What were their demands? Exactly what the Chinese have done since the reform and opening up policy initiated by Deng Xiaoping. They were as follows with the Deng reforms in parentheses:

1. Modernize the traditional exam system (exams are still administered but they are for entry into universities)
2. Elimination of sinecures - positions that provide little or no work but give a salary. (China's modern governmental administration is a meritocracy).
3. Creation of a modern education system - studying maths and science instead of focusing mainly on Confucian texts, etc. (China has a modern higher education system that trains more scientists and engineers than we do)
4. Change the government from absolute monarchy to constitutional monarchy with democracy. (China has a one party parliamentary system with internal checks and balances)
5. Apply principles of capitalism to strengthen the economy.(market socialism)
6. Completely change the military buildup to strengthen the military. (China has a modern military with nuclear weapons)
7. Rapidly industrialize all of China through manufacturing, commerce, and capitalism. (just what China has done over the last 30 years.)

The Communists have basically fully implemented the dreams of China's late 19th century reformers.
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05:44 PM on 11/29/2011
"It doesn't matter if a cat is black or if it is white. If it catches mice, it's a good cat."
--Deng Xiaopeng
05:32 PM on 11/29/2011
I haven't even gotten through half a page of posts here and am getting the impression that people are looking at China in an all or nothing way. China is neither all-threatening nor all-placid, all-capable nor all-handicapped.

I guess this is just a subject that provokes emotion and defensiveness, because it appears the quality of discussion here is largely reflective of simple emotion and go-to ideas with little breadth or subtlety.
10:19 PM on 11/29/2011
Excellent point. I have found that whenever I post anything even slightly against China... that tries to point out potential problems with what it is doing.. I seem to get blasted by people with high octane passionate belief in the "superiority" and the "correctness" of China.... China.. like the United States and every other country has a ton of problems... and I hope that they recognize this and try to resolve the longer term collision that I see coming if things do not change... One of the greatest weaknesses of the Chinese and China is that they are unwilling to take criticism, mainly because they are a society that does not value opposing views and freedom of speech. However, I also recognize that they do outshine other peoples in areas like discipline, long term strategic thinking and willingness to invest long term in the future. I think they will do well.. but I also think that to avoid future conflict they need to be balanced in the way they treat other nations.... Should they? I do not know - many people point out here correctly that the United States is no angel in this department.. but trade wars, and economic battles are coming if the trade across the world does not get rebalanced.
05:49 PM on 11/30/2011
I've noticed the same thing about some pro-Chinese responses being way over the top and even propagandistic. There are small armies of Chinese citizens paid to post positive things about China on the internet and overwhelm threads critical of it. I forget the name for them, but they get a few cents per post or something. Sometimes I get the feeling that I'm probably seeing one of those, and that not all the pro-China comments you see are on the up-and-up.
10:51 PM on 12/02/2011
I think on this site China is mostly perceived in relation to the US, either as a threat or an opportunity, and the comments follow from that.

After the Cold War ended the US had hegemony and will keep it for another decade or so, as the sole remaining superpower. Given that the US has 1/20th of the world's population that was an unnatural situation, and the future US will have to make do with "merely" being the first among equals, with other nations having an increasing say. However this has little to do with China directly. The Chinese Dream, so to speak, is "Get Rich Quick". As they succeed in this there will be a lot of poor countries that will look to China, what are they doing right that we have been doing wrong. During crises, as there surely will be, they might be looking elsewhere.

I don't think you will find many in China that consider the US to be their adversary, in fact China has looked to the USA (among other inspirations). Of course it tickles nationalistic pride to be able to say "we are number 1". More cars for instance is sold in China than in the US, making China the number 1 car market, but that ignores that there are four times as many people in China, and that there were hardly any cars in the country twenty years ago so there is a lot of catching up to do.
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Ralph Gardner
02:47 PM on 11/29/2011
With the US buying $500 billion a year more from China than China buys from the US, China has $3 trillion in the bank at the Fed, enough to buy up all of the US farmland.

If you take away the currency devaluations China's economy is around the same size as the US economy.
12:49 PM on 11/29/2011
Japan seems to be doing just fine.
12:47 PM on 11/29/2011
As a Taiwanese, I feel more "stifled" in the US than I do in Taiwan. Bible thumpers everywhere, threats of gun violence, politicians who abandon reason for ignorance/religion, unspoken discrimination against non-religious/non-christians, and, on occasions, racism. When American politicians/nationalists yell about "freedom", the world hears this: freedom for America, at the expense of the world. In the past decade, the US has done more to undermine "freedom" than support it. As for military power, please. The US enjoys one of the largest military advantage over Afghanistan/Iraq but what good has it achieved. In the age of globalization and emphasis on economic strength, military power is declining in relevance.

The most common aspect of the stereotypes that we harbor towards people who are different from us is the assumption that they will always be in this "fixed" state and never change. Americans like to talk about how much their culture embraces change but from what I have seen, especially from the half of the nation that votes republican, that is one big fat lie. America is increasingly entrenched in ideologies and fearful of change. On the other hand, I have seen Asia, including China, more and more willing to embrace originality and change. So, honestly, I don't see anything inherent superior about American culture.
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Jerry Bourbon
01:22 PM on 11/29/2011
You don't have to stay.
01:37 PM on 11/29/2011
Right you are. After I get my PhD, I will go somewhere else for a job.
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02:02 PM on 11/29/2011
Q.E.D.
05:37 PM on 11/29/2011
We've lived in Hong Kong for 13 years and I agree with you. I've tried to explain to family and friends how ironically I have more 'freedoms' on the ground, in day to day life, here than at home in the States. I don't know if it's because they don't want to , but they don't get it. Americans don't seem to have any idea just HOW MUCH they hem themselves in because of crime and the perception of crime around them. Because of law-suits, both warranted and frivolous, and because of regulations and laws, bot the warranted ones and the 'too-much-PC-police" ones. Daily life, (especially if you have kids) is MUCH more constricted. If you're not used to it, it can feel quite extreme and binding.

They are 2 very different systems. Each has freedom and constriction in different areas. What works here would NOT work there and vice-versa. I'm not sure if either one is 'better'.
The only conclusion I can come up with is to question the notion of this very elusive and slippery word: "Freedom".
12:18 PM on 11/29/2011
There is not going to be a 'superpower' anymore.

I am sitting on a chair made in Denmark, at a desk from Indonesia, I'm drinking wine from Chile. Typing this on a laptop manufactured in China and distributed via the US. My house is warmed by 'green' energy from France, and my clothes are from all over the globe.

I own a small business and have staff living in the UK, Sweden, Switzerland, Italy, India and Bahrein. My clients are located all over the globe. I have friends living on all continents. My best friend lives 5000 miles away, and I talk to her more than my next best friend who lives around the corner.

There is not one US. There are many. There is not one China either. There are countless societies though, and they are not bound by country borders. Welcome into the 21st century.
03:36 PM on 11/29/2011
As you've noted, your own 'small' American business has staff in 6 other countries. Likely your chair, desk, laptop, clothes and definitely countless products you posess (manufactured the world over) were produced by other American owned companies.

America is the world's superpower still and will be for a long time to come. Many things made in China and India are made by American companies with American financing. Every economic and business trail in the world leads back to the US, and the fundamental reason is because Americans have worked harder, and smarter, than the rest of the world, and have also been friendlier to the rest of the world, for many hundreds of years. And that is why your American friends are welcome to live in many different countries, and why the immigrants of the world largely perfer America as a new home over any other country.

A great many wealthy Chinese wish to leave their own country, but Americans largely prefer to live in their own. Americans have long promoted freedom, human rights and have been kind to the world. I am not an American (I'm Canadian), but in my own travels I've consistantly found Americans to be the friendliest people anywhere.

I'm quite confident that the 21st Century will be a good one to be American, and that is at essence because of "core American values" - hard work, diplomacy, freedom, respect, human rights, etc. Don't expect America to lose it's stature in the world any time soon..
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05:27 PM on 11/29/2011
"Americans have worked harder, and smarter, than the rest of the world . . . "

Yes, if by Americans we include the labor of slaves, and the resources stake from native Americans.

Let's not sugar-coat our history. These were an enormous capital down-stroke which allowed the country to grow exponentially. Having the only industrialized economy standing after WWII helped a bit, too.
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DCinFrance
As a matter of fact, it's all dark.
06:59 AM on 11/30/2011
I'm afraid you suffer from Americancentric myopia. And what you say is simply not true. Further, what's coming to America is going to shock you out of it, but not before it will be too late.

I am an American born, raised and worked there in various parts of the country for 40 years, but no longer live there and probably never will again. As you might imagine, I have a very different point of view.
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12:16 PM on 11/29/2011
China is an overblown fascination of the current era--they are a fad.

So long as 1.3 BILLION people wake up every morning demanding an every more protein-rich breakfast, China will be first and foremost a nation that struggles to feed itself.

Add to the mix their oversupply of young men and the restive provinces outside the urban-industrial centers, and China is more likely to implode than they are to explode.

Keep your eyes on MEXICO.
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Jerry Bourbon
12:35 PM on 11/29/2011
Keep your eyes on Brazil and India.
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04:55 PM on 11/29/2011
Yup. Them, too.
12:39 PM on 11/29/2011
The US is definitely headed towards being another Mexico.
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04:55 PM on 11/29/2011
Nightmare scenario.
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morristhewise
11:46 AM on 11/29/2011
Long range plans of Russia and China do not include challenging US military might just for the privilege of protecting a broken down nation such as Syria. They are glad the US is mired deep into the dark mud of Africa while their Russian and Chinese economies are growing at a phenomenal rate.
12:21 PM on 11/29/2011
Russia's economy is growing at a phenomenal rate? Maybe for a few of the oligarchs, that's about it.
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Jerry Bourbon
04:27 PM on 11/29/2011
The only thing Russian that is "growing at a phenomenal rate" is emigration.
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Jerry Bourbon
11:35 AM on 11/29/2011
What would happen to the US if China refused to pay back any Chinese debt the US government holds?

Nothing.

What would happen to the US if China refused to buy American products?

Nothing.

Now flip those questions around and ask what would happen to China?
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Ralph Gardner
02:53 PM on 11/29/2011
We can see what is happening to the US when China refuses to buy US products. 100,000+ US factories move to China to produce in China and export to the US.

China has $3 trillion in the bank at the Fed enough to buy all of the US farmland.
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Jerry Bourbon
04:26 PM on 11/29/2011
And what if we devalue the dollar?
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dsws
No owning ideas. Limit only commercial use.
11:16 AM on 11/29/2011
Brands like Coke and Nike? That's what guarantees the status of the US as a superpower even after we eventually fall to third-tier status as an economic power?

Doesn't pass the sniff test.
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Ralph Gardner
02:54 PM on 11/29/2011
I don't think Nike is made in the US, maybe China?
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prastagus
07:00 PM on 11/29/2011
They can always move their HQ to another country when US is not doing good.
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78Thomas
10:23 AM on 11/29/2011
The biggest obstacle China has is the mentioned flow of information in the country. To be a leader a country must have innovation. China will have a difficult time with this at best. They have relied on reverse engineering for its technology, technology from the west. Information is so restricted and the cultural norm of not teaching critical thinking in the schools keeps China as a manufacturing country.
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08:23 PM on 11/29/2011
Sort of, though Intel's got a big presence.
http://www.intel.com/jobs/china/sites/dalian.htm

Sort of not, since they are engineering their own things.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loongson

It's only halfway in jest that I'd point out that Intel's products are a rip-off of the abacus.
alien brain
I'm stuck here and I can't get home.
10:09 AM on 11/29/2011
I've just returned from a ten year stay in south east Asia. I realize that not all east asian countries are the same but they do have one thing in common. That is, that they are all top down societies. All important decisions are made at the top. Of course, this has advantanages and disadvantages. Decisions can be made about the economy very quickly and a certain agillity is gained from this. But culturally it moves at a snails pace because the people at the bottom have no real input. The people at the top don't want the culture to move quickly because that it makes them look archaen.
So the young people in Asia look to the west for social trends and styles. Western culture moves quickly and better represents the poorer classes because it comes from the bottom, (the poorer classes). Music, art, literature, in east Asia is for the most part, stiff and pro-establishment because the powers that be in these countries are stingy about letting its people make decisions effecting the culture. It's difficult for me to imagine a day when the people in power in this region allow this process to change. It's far too risky. It could upset the power structure and make their leaders obsolete. This is why I don't feel that China well ever find themselves on top culturally, which is what they really want. Power without love is empty.
01:02 PM on 11/29/2011
Since when does the young people in Asia look to the west for social trends and styles. Speaking as a young Taiwanese, much of the social trends and styles I see are very much distinctly Asian. In the beginning, when the society is young and power, they drew inspiration from other sources, including the west. However, as the society grew and become richer, they created their own style while also maintaining the capacity to learn and adapt things they see a potential in. I don't feel that Taiwan is a top-down society. In fact, I feel more "down-top" in Taiwan than I do in the US, a "top-down" society where wealth is the factor. All societies have a top-down past. Many of the countries in south east Asia (I have lived in Singapore for a decade) are relatively young and it will take time for them to grow.

I find it hypocritical to talk of how inherently "top-down" some non-white societies are when colonialism (where white people have authority over non-white people) is the epitome of a top-down social structure.
01:43 PM on 11/29/2011
Just curious, and this is not a criticism, why are you living in the US?

And, no, I'm not suggesting you "live somewhere else" ... I, too, have dual citizenship (EU) and am extremely critical of certain aspects of the US, but I have chosen to stay here (for now) as, to me, on balance, there is more good than bad -- though we definitely need to make big changes for the better (i.e. stop focussing on feeding the MIC/military and start rebuilding our infrastructure, educational system and providing goodwill towards other countries).
Citizen54
Conservatism is a con job!
01:52 PM on 11/29/2011
The US is not a "top-down" society?
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02:37 PM on 11/29/2011
I would venture that ALL societies see their members seeking to emulate those who they as superior/upperclass/top.

One can almost feel sympathy for some of the 1 percenters who struggle to keep up with the .01 percenters.