Thankfully Seymour Hersh is the first journalist to lend credence to the widely-held intuition that the White House and Israel are considering scenarios to bomb Iran's alleged nuclear facilities before the November election.
Americans should understand that such bombing almost certainly would fail, would trigger an indirect Iranian response against American troops bogged down in Iraq, plunge the Middle East into cataclysm, and leave the United State isolated from the whole world.
The threat to the US in Iraq could be fatal. The Iraqi Shiite governing coalition has extensive ties with Iran. The so-called moderate Shia leader al-Sistani was born in Iran. The Iraqi Badr militia was trained in Iran. Many Shia leaders were sheltered in Iran during the Saddam years. If the US or Israel hits Iran with US-made buster-bunker bombs, the Iranians could respond by encouraging their allies in Baghdad and Basra to pull the plug on their opportunistic support for the US occupation. During the Israeli war with Lebanon, for example, Iraq's Mahdi Army mobilized tens of thousands in solidarity with Hezbollah, Moktada al-Sadr warned that Iraqis would not "sit by with hands folded", and -- not reported in the American press until the cease-fire took effect, there was a surge of rockets fired into the US-controlled Green Zone.
Those "limited" responses by Iraqi Shiites could become unlimited if Iran is bombed. al-Sistani could issue a fatwa against the American occupation. The Green Zone could be stormed, even overrun, by Shiite wave attacks. Basra could become a graveyard for the Brits and Americans.
After the Americans in Iraq, the Israelis would be next. The long-range Iranian missiles which Hezbollah possessed but did not use would most likely be fired into Tel Aviv.
And what would the US or the Israelis do? Nuke Iran and thus commit suicide? Or send ground troops to be devoured by Shiite armies?
Fortunately, an indirect result of the failed US-Israeli military strategy in Lebanon is the cautionary flag it waves against further escalation. The Israeli bombing had little military effect on Hezbollah, united the Lebanese and the Arab world instead of dividing them, and demonstrated America's essential isolation in the United Nations. Seen as an experimental run-up to bombing Iran, as Hersh's sources suggest, Lebanon was a failed trial run. The debacle strengthened the the position of everyone in the Pentagon and the American political oligarchy who doubts the notion of escalating to Iran.
Yet the danger is immanent. The United Nations Security Council may weigh in against Iran's alleged nuclear program at the end of August. For the US and Israel [if not the Security Council], that would be justification enough to begin a bombing offensive as soon as October.
Peace movements, along with governments around the world, can squelch this danger before it unfolds. The first demand should be for a US and Israeli official response to the Hersh article in the current New Yorker. The second demand should be to know if, as Hersh alleges, US or Israeli special forces already are on the ground in Iran. Ultimately, the demand should be for a diplomatic solution instead of US or Israeli bombing. The American refusal to negotiate with Iran since 1979 is an accumulating disaster. Any chance of peace in Iraq or the Middle East now requires a new US understanding with Iran. The alternative is not appeasement, but a showdown like the Cuban missile crisis or worse.
It is high time that the "rational" world understands the "irrational" motives driving the US and Israel to the edge and beyond. Irrational passions are not attributes of Islamic fundamentalists alone. The elites in Washington and Tel Aviv have positioned themselves to be permanent "superpowers" unassailable by any regional or global competitors. As their [our] vulnerabilities become apparent through the experiences of 9/11 and Lebanon, as an existential fear sinks in, and as the 2006 and 2008 US elections approach, the neo-conservatives believe that their "window of opportunity" is now and that there is nothing for them to lose.#
For most of us, it is another congressional election which at best may move America back towards a centrist course. For the neo-conservatives and Bush, it appears to be Armageddon. The November election may be too late to checkmate them. It will be up to awakened public opinion, further media scrutiny, Congressional alarms, and, like it or not, sober minds in the Pentagon and Wall Street. #