Death of Reform, Birth of Reform: Clinton Democrats Face the Obama Future

Between 1968-1972, when Hillary Rodham and Bill Clinton began their political journey, the Democrats were gripped by a great wave of change, propelled mainly by young people, from the bottom up. The Chicago convention protests were a mirror into this transition. In these pivotal years, young people could not vote and most delegates to the convention were chosen in backrooms by party bosses. By 1972, the so-called McGovern reforms led to the displacement of the old guard and the seating of people like Rev. Jesse Jackson in place of Mayor Daley's cronies. Most important, unlike before, rank-and-file Democrats were empowered to vote for their preferences in presidential primaries.

The Clintons were part of that early wave. Now their hopes for survival may rest on so-called super-delegates, a category of appointed party loyalists which the McGovern reforms failed to erase. The super-delegates are a throwback to the old tradition of a top-down privileged oligarchy maintaining the citadel against the grass-roots, democratically-chosen delegates. They are not necessarily the rich and powerful, though there are plenty of them. Many are like Rachel Binah, mentioned in the New York Times, who is a former radical environmentalist grass-roots California Democrat who worked her way up the party ladder and now receives phone calls from Chelsea and Hillary Clinton soliciting her vote. It's an old style insider trading system, and now threatens to eclipse the reforms achieved starting in the early Seventies. It would be an ugly, contaminated way to seal the final decision in one of the best primary contests ever conducted.

Even uglier will be the establishment claim that Michigan and Florida should count for Clinton even though the Democratic Party ruled against recognizing those state's contests.

If Clinton is chosen by the super-delegates or on the basis of the Michigan/Florida results, I would not be surprised to see hundreds of thousands of young Obama supporters silently circling the Denver convention petitioning the party to recognize their historic achievement.

It may not happen that way. But it could.

Obama is poised to win eight straight primaries in the week since Super Tuesday, with only Virginia a bit uncertain at this point. In their staggering spin, the Clinton forces are denying that these eight states matter in comparison with California and New York. This spin will be challenged when and if Obama wins Wisconsin and Hawaii on the 19th, for ten victories in a row. Coming out of Super Tuesday ahead in 14 states to Clinton's eight (some are still counting), that would mean Obama finishes February with 24 states to eight against the former First Lady and a former president popular with Democrats. The delegate totals in those 24 states are more than Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania combined, and even if the Clintons win in those three big states they still stand to lose in the 14 states remaining. That would mean approximately a 38-11 Obama sweep of the primary states by June, with one unknown at the moment.

Obama needs to fight the media perception, prompted partly by the Clintons, that "it's all over" when the big three states weigh in. That may not be any more accurate than the previous dogma that it would be all over by Super Tuesday.

Obama needs to shore up his defenses in Texas, where he is at a disadvantage. In addition to hitting hard on Iraq, his campaign needs to enlist long- time Texas populists like Jim Hightower (which hasn't happened) and win a significant share of the John Edwards vote along with the modest black vote in order to offset potentially big losses among the state's Latinos. Obama has not yet tied the failure of NAFTA (job loss for Americans, more uprooted immigrants from Mexico) to Clinton's "experience" in the White House. Nor has he spoken of the need for a new good neighbor policy towards Latin America, a whole continent that has rejected the Clinton's "free trade" policies and been ignored during the Iraq war.

In Ohio, Obama needs to win both the anti-war and anti-NAFTA voters (as in Wisconsin) to do well. Pennsylvania, three weeks later, will be shaped by the previous contest, but is a good state for the Clintons. Keep an eye on North Carolina, approaching on May 6, the home state of John Edwards.

By June, Obama needs to be ahead in the total popular vote, the total number of states won, and at least be neck-and-neck in the delegate count. He has to show a significant margin of difference over Clinton in match ups with John McCain. He will have to demand that Howard Dean and the DNC hold firm against the contaminated outcomes in Florida and Michigan.

At some point, perhaps, a pact between the candidates will be possible.

If not, the massive and peaceful pressure for transformation heading into Denver may be unique in the history of American social movements. One generation of reformers, exhausted but still fighting, will have to decide whether power is so important that they are willing to roll over young people no different than themselves three decades ago.#

TOM HAYDEN is the author of Ending the War in Iraq (2007) and The Tom Hayden Reader (2008)

Comments

[jsarets]

Hillary Clinton will be a great Senate Majority Leader during the Obama Administration.

[FlowerGirl]

I prefer Chris Dodd. And I wish the Neocon Hillary would change parties AGAIN.

[argent1]

What Hayden leaves out are two assasinations, the Tet offensive, the draft and the draft dodgers and collegiate deferers (the wealthy). The corporate profiteers of war then to whom the youth today aspire to join now. Race riots and mayhem and George Wallace calling the peace movement an anarchist takeover. The dead hippie movement in favor of free sex with no regrets (for the men only), abortion was not legal in many states. Daley Town then is Oprah Town now. The proclamation of youth then is not the same as it is now but only in a battle cry. No draft exists to swipe away a nineteen year old and have him dead in eight weeks.

What the Clintons are guilty of is getting more for those who didn't have it, quietly. Seeking shelters for battered women, schools for the disenchanted, equality by appointment and model and through that did their support grow. But it is all lumped together as bribous, counterfeit shinanigans for personal gain. As if the Obamaniacs are trying to pull down some statue in Baghdad of some skewed dictator. When it is they who have been under the influence of the Vast Right Wing Narcotic that has filled their head and dizzied their own visions as to what needs changing. Hayden would like to force a take-over, but he failed at any rate a long time ago, due to rage and yes due to the political machine that was then so disgusting.
I agree that the only way to settle this is by popular vote, majority rules, no super-delegates. Don't disenfranchise Florida or Michigan and by all means don't engage in the destruction of an establishment even Obama thrives in, much different than was in 1968.

[jdm58]

Good post, sad memories.

[Plowboy]

I will be as frank as Sinatra: I will never vote for Hillary Clinton no matter how she might git nominated. She is crooked. What she says and what she does are two different categories of things.

Reform -- Murdock & the Lobbies

Anti-war -- those votes in the Senate

Commitment on Mich. -- she alone stayed on the ballot

No campaigning in Fla. -- three major fund raisers + the "Mission Accomplished"

those don't count -- I'll see that these count & are on the winning side

etc., etc., etc.

[Savanarola]

Here's Hayden using this election to remind us of his exalted place in radical politics...and in the process makes some sense.

[MPeter]

Hillary is in a free fall. She seems to be out of funds as this former client shows:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23115569#23114259

[jdm58]

I see, you'll never vote for Hillary. So, does this mean that:
You'll support staying in Iraq for 100+ years
Abolishing Roe/Wade
Adding more conservatives to the already tilted Supreme Court
Torture, rendition, Guantanamo
Not fixing Healthcare
Not slowing Global Warming
Selling our collective corporate souls to foreign interests, eliminating domestic jobs, extending tax cuts to millionaires?
Gee, thanks for nothing!

[Plowboy]

What is the difference if McCain does it or Hillary Clinton; she is committed to the same controllers. We have had one of tyheir puppets for the past seven years. Do you want more of that? Do you seriously think that they buy only Republican weaklings? They have traditionally bought Democrats as well.
If the choice is between Puppet Clinton or Puppet McCain, then we have no choice.
Or did you miss those big and courageous anti-war votes of HRC's?

[godsbreath64]

Didn't Ralph Nader teach you anything?

No 911, Patriot Act, Cheney, Gonzo, Rumsfailed, who knows how many funerals, Abu Garab, Camp Gitmo, The supreme Count for decades, how many signing statments, ect... if these same people then just realized a vote is strategic, not a wedding proposal.

I may be too young, but wasn't that the heavy lesson of'68? No Drug Schedule, Renquist, corporate welfare, ect...

The common thread is garrison enterprise incidental to demographic which can only vote for a candidate they have a crush on.

Lets be honest of our collective electorate record. Its not exactly good. Bush, his spawn, the Reagan Empire, Dick Nixon, Spiro Agnew,ect..

DON'T DRINK AND VOTE!!!

[godsbreath64]

That is the Great Teri Garr's joke. Viva

[OSUMercutio]

[Many are like Rachel Binah, mentioned in the New York Times, who is a former radical environmentalist grass-roots California Democrat who worked her way up the party ladder and now receives phone calls from Chelsea and Hillary Clinton soliciting her vote.]

I will bet that their offer to her is a position in the EPA.

[NC4Obama]

I don't see NC going to Clinton.
But there is one thing in her favor, the primary in NC is during Finals for a lot of college's.

[MR]

It WAS over super tues. what is wrong with these people? You dont lose NY,CA, MASS, NJ,MICH,FLA,OKLA,TENN, TEX, OHIO and PENN and get the nomination of your party for President. Nebraska, Kansas Minn the Virgin Islands and Alaska doesnt do it. Neither does Maryland, Va, Maine, SC and DC.

These Obama supporters sound like announcers at a football game which is over except there is still time on the clock and they tell you every impossible lunatic scenario possible on how the losing team can still pull it out to keep you watching and hoping. Its over. Obama has no chance to win this nomination.

[RusStyles]

Forget FL and MI. She broke agreed-upon rules to stay out of both states. Naturally, she was the only one to renig. Tx or OH? Don't count your chickens...She thought CT was a lock. Further, if any of these state primaries are close, the dellies will split. That's why if she loses the next 6-7 seven states, get the fork and Q-sauce.

[pokester]

Such a poignant recollection of the ideals that drove the Clintons back then. Now, she demands that Florida and Michigan count? I am newly zealous for this whole process, but to see this contest decided by Superdelegates, or the Florida and Michigan votes, would be a blow to Democracy more brazen than the 2000 election debacles.

[shockinaw]

Obama is political suicide for us, but I'll vote for him, misery loves company.

[starboymikey]

Obama is political suicide for us, but I'll vote for him, misery loves company.
___________________________________________

Interesting that I and many I know feel exactly the same about Hillary Clinton. So what do we do?

[StephenDedalus82]

Let's compromise and choose the democratic solution to both issues in this contest. Seat Florida and Michigan, then let the superdelegates go with their states. I don't know who that would benefit more. Someone have a calculator?

[ricchase]

You speak of "a pact" between these candidates if a stalemate occurs. Frankly, I do not see Bill Clinton compromising one iota when it comes to sharing any of the power he so desperately craves. Let us just hope that it is decided before any super-delegates or backroom deals become necessary. I do not care to see this historic time in our lives tarnished by classic politics or greedy, self serving politicians.

[NanaJ]

I am of an age to have been one of those who participated in many of the reformation activities of the 60's and early 70's. Frankly, to my way of thinking and viewing the world, neither Clinton comes close to embracing, or practicing the political or personal values that drove so many of us back then.

As I have observed Obama over the past four years or so, I have seen a tremendous consistency in his words and actions that remind me far more of those "earlier years", than anything I've seen from either Clinton.

For myself, I have no intention of "rolling over" those younger than I am in my quest to support the candidate of my choice. Quite frankly, "exhausted" as I may be, I am finally excited again about a candidate. I am joyful and elated that we have a candidate that can inspire so many of us despite any age differences. I am ready for, encourage and embrace the concept of change as I do what I can to support it.

Barack Obama is "my guy" for the White House in 2008.

NanaJ

[finally]

Well put - the CLintons do make it very clear that it's ultimately about them - no matter the cost to the party, in November or beyond. Any one else remember Terry McAuliffe in the plane from Iowa to NH, stating that" let's not forget who's going to win this - we have the super delegates"... As Peggy Noonan wrote a few days ago in the WSJ - Sen. Clinton is smart, but is she wise?

[eddiestardust]

I am younger than you are Nana J and like you I will not roll over to these younger voters either.

Barack Obama is no JFK or even RFK though, he just doesn't have the experience in office or has he done anything else worthwhile in his life
to rate against both men.

He has though been a drug user in his high school and college years.

That I cannot and will not let him get away with for to do so admits to young men and women that it's ok to do so...

And that's hypocrisy at it's worst more of

"Do what I SAY, not what I DO"!!!

Role model?

You've got to be kidding...

Now, it would be none of my business IF HE WASN'T RUNNING FOR OFFICE...

but HE IS and for THE HIGHEST OFFICE OF THE LAND!

Please think folks...please think!

[NYS4OBAMA]

Interesting that you make this point...

Bill smoked but didn't inhale...
Has Hillary done drugs... not sure... I haven't heard her deny using them.

Maybe that should be the next debate question...

Senator Clinton, Seantor Obama has admitted to drug use as a young person. Do you think this disqualifies him being President of the US? Please remember that your husband has admitted to drug use in his youth and was elected President. Finally, Have you ever used drugs?

[jdm58]

I don't know Tom. From what I'm reading on posts here at Huffpo, if Obama doesn't win, his followers are all going to stay home, and not vote. Doesn't sound like a march on Denver as much as a Playstation tournament.I think we called this "tune out and turn on" back in the day, and a whole generation of tripped out young people begat another generation of youngsters who "don't play well with others". The rhetoric and crystalball movement needs to calm down, the votes need to all be cast, delegate numbers finalized (we're still counting the ones cast, not to mention the upcoming primaries). Too many cooks are spoiling the broth of this campaign, and I for one don't want another repeat of '68, where so many disenfranchised RFK supporters stayed home, and we ended up with a Republican President.

[ATLiberal]

Let me assure you, that as an ardent Obama supporter and frequent commenter on posts, I will absolutely support HRC if she wins the nomination. A few months back, I was prepared to vote for her in my primary. I changed my mind about a month ago and voted Obama.

But I will support the party. We must not allow another ruinous Repub presidency.
McCain = Bush 3

[CanSoc]

We (and I am speaking of progressives everywhere, not just the U.S.) need more Obama supporters like you. And Hayden's reference to a pact (Dream Team?) indicates he's in the same group. Hopefully you're part of a vast majority of Obama supporters that won't drink the metaphorical poisoned Kool-Aid, HuffPost comments notwithstanding.

[V4Vigilance]

No doubt about it. If Obama is significantly ahead of Clinton but short of the number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination and the party "establishment" (read super-delegates) hands the nomination to Hillary, THE SH*T IS REALLY GOING TO HIT THE FAN.


Of course, one should never doubt the Democratic Party's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Sigh...


OBAMA '08

[AnninCA]

I'm from LA, and I take it Tom, you're worried.

I certainly hope so.

[hopeless277]

If the super delegates appoint Hillary the nominee, Denver will be calling out what's left of their Nat'l Guard to try and stop the invasion of the convention by democracy supporters. They will not be successful. This year, the American people will not be denied a president for THEM. The corporations have had the last 7 years, it's our turn.