RESPONSE TO JOHN KERRY GEORGETOWN SPEECH THIS WEEK
I think the Kerry speech is a good step, especially in the context of the appalling silence of other Senate Democrats. It is an anti-war speech that contains a more detailed alternative than yet elaborated. It will not satisfy “out now” advocates [nor should they stop putting the pressure on] but at least it says “out soon”. The defense of dissent as patriotic is a nice addition. The demand for 20,000 troops out by Christmas is excellent and will prevent Bush from taking total credit if it happens.
I would hope the Senator will call for hearings and discussion on an exit strategy followed by a Senate resolution, but his proposals are ice-breakers in the official [non] discussion in the Senate chamber. As I understand the specific proposals:
- emphasizing the primacy of a political settlement. The reference to the report of the Iraqi Sovereignty Committee is the first such reference by a national figure or reporter.
othe acknowledgement that a political solution is only possible if the Iraqis see the possibility of an American withdrawal is good, certainly far better than the usual notion that we should seek a political solution while continuing to pursue military victory.
oan international conference including “Iraq's neighbors” is good, although I would urge the inclusion of the Iraqi opposition and seek the authorization of the United Nations.
osetting a 12-15 timetable for a “majority of our combat troops” to withdraw is a move in the right direction and may turn out to be realistic. But I think it should be formulated by the Senator as an initial withdrawal by Christmas, a de-escalation of offensive operations in early 2006 after the Iraqi elections, a withdrawal of all US guard and reservists in 2006, the rest out in 2007 [although in my opinion they should and can be withdrawn and redeployed more rapidly to prevent preventable deaths.] Getting into debates about “now” or one year from now is secondary to the question of whether we are planning a full withdrawal or not.
I believe the analysis should prepare the public for the failure of "Iraqization" instead of the Bush fantasty that the Iraqi "security forces" will have the committment and capability to fight the resistance any time soon, if ever.
I hope the proposal will be elaborated in future speeches to include:
oproposing a peace envoy and a diplomatic track to support ongoing peace talks among Iraqis themselves. Start with the Iraqi Soverignty Committee and outside opposition groups.
oAs confidence-building measures, declare no US intention to control oil or hold permanent military bases.
oRecognize and build public awareness that all surveys show a majority of Iraqis favor US withdrawal and end of occupation.
oThe phrase “as an ally not an occupier” should be elaborated to support Iraqi reconstruction and end of occupation machinery by an appropriate contact group with UN blessing.
ointernationally-supervised elections as part of the withdrawal package.
What has been proposed are “benchmarks” for US senators. We should demand that the Democratic Senate bloc respond to the Kerry speech with their own ideas for an exit strategy, or sign on as supporters. I would hope that Sen. Kerry keeps giving and elaborating this speech as a year-long effort.
TOM
http://www.tomhayden.com