More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Tom Matzzie

Tom Matzzie

Posted: April 7, 2010 07:26 PM

Is Greenspan Kidding? He Was "Right 70%" of the Time?

What's Your Reaction:

In testimony before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan defended his record during questions by Chairman Phil Angelides by saying he was "right 70 percent" and "wrong 30 percent" of the time.

When asked whether the financial crisis was one of the times he got it wrong he answered, "I don't know."

If there is a photo in the dictionary next to the word "clueless" it should look like Alan Greenspan.

These are outrageous statements by a financial regulator whose job was to protect the entire U.S. economy. The fact that the lead-up to the financial meltdown in 2008 happened under Greenspan's watch seems to have escaped his grasp.

Imagine if airline pilots only landed 70 percent of airplanes, crossing guards only protected 70 percent of students or if your bank only honored 70 percent of your checks. It would be a public scandal. There would be indictments; prosecutions and surely the perpetrators would face consequences. We need the same expectation of safety for our banks that we have for airplanes flying America's skies--that they won't crash.

Nobody is asking anybody to predict the future, but there were other economists who saw what was happening and who didn't have the job of protecting the public. It would seem that Greenspan had the wrong personality and outlook for the job of Federal Reserve Chairman. He acted more like "Wall Street's man in Washington" than "the most powerful person in banking."

What we really learned from his testimony is what many already know: Alan Greenspan was and still is ideologically opposed to oversight of Big Banks and Wall Street. He didn't take action to stem the financial crisis because he didn't believe in action. That is the worst quality in a financial regulator. We want our sheriffs to catch the bad guys just like we want financial regulators to keep the Big Banks in line.

The failures in Washington over the last ten years--like the failures at the big banks--had two things going on: bad laws and regulators who didn't believe they had a role to play. Both things need to change.

Financial reform is already underway in Congress and it is still undecided as to whether reform will truly rein in the most dangerous Wall Street practices that ultimately hurt the entire economy or whether it will paper over the need for reform.

But what has to happen even if Congress won't do it is a complete repudiation of the regulators who were asleep at the switch during the financial crisis. Only if future regulators know that public shame or worse is the cost of their failures will laws--even new ones--work effectively.

That is why the Commission needs to call or subpoena former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox. The public was promised testimony by Cox in January but he has yet to appear. Cox, like Greenspan, was ideologically opposed to a strong SEC to protect consumers. During his tenure leading up to the crisis Cox hobbled the SEC in a range of areas. Cox is now tied directly to the collapse of Lehman Brothers (here, here and here).

And, the new laws and rules should be written so they're bulletproof against even a shortsighted Federal Reserve chairman with a very thin briefcase, or an SEC chairman with a campaign war chest full of Wall Street money.

The Commission has hearings through Friday, April 9. The Huffington Post team is doing the best live-blogging of the hearings on the web. You can follow them online at www.FCIC.gov. Also check out Accountable America's coverage. I help lead that group as chairman.

 

Follow Tom Matzzie on Twitter: www.twitter.com/tommatzzie

 
 
  • Comments
  • 45
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2 3  Next ›  Last »  (3 total)
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
12:19 PM on 04/09/2010
In that job you can't get it right all the time. The problem with Greenspan isn't that he got things wrong, it's that he got a lot of small things right at the expense of getting the biggest thing wrong. In fact, not only was it the biggest thing, it's the one thing that was his job's raison d'etre.

His job wasn't 'keep the economy bubbling so we can afford two wars for a while' is was 'prevent catastrophic failure'. He accomplished the former at the cost of failure on the latter.

~~

And worst yet, he failed at it by holding the false, ideologically-derived belief that catastrophic failure was impossible so he was free to do things he saw as more important, and didn't have to listen to anyone warning otherwise. That's failblog-worthy failure.
12:38 PM on 04/08/2010
Odd that of the 30% he was wrong, 100% of that 30% was in favor of big banks.
Greenspan was influenced heavily by his close friend, Ayn Rand, a possible soviet plant.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYNqDyPY5LA
12:21 PM on 04/08/2010
It not like the FED is an ER where lightening decisions of life or death, Tee Vee shows not withstanding, do occasionally have to be made. Certainly, there are often multiple difficult, multople choice decisions that occur routinely in any ER. 70% is not good enough there.
So why would Greenspan accept 70% in a job that can track trends for weeks, months, and years before any decision to act might become necessary?

Obviously somewhere along the line Greenspan lost tract of reality, so I guess it's not surprising that his decisions began to become detached from reality.
Grunty1
Micro-bio this
11:49 AM on 04/08/2010
[Imagine if airline pilots only landed 70 percent of airplanes, crossing guards only protected 70 percent of students or if your bank only honored 70 percent of your checks.]

Or if a major politcal party, currently the minority, only served 1% of the populace...
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
11:35 AM on 04/08/2010
Looks like his objective-ism is only 70% right and subjective-ism 100% wrong.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
blueken
Finger Picking blues man
11:07 AM on 04/08/2010
If I got it wrong 30% of the time, I would be looking for a new job, with no references. I guess after GW Bush the might have lowered the bar for public service.
11:02 AM on 04/08/2010
At my son's High School 70% is the lowest possible passing grade -- it doesn't get you on the honors list
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
PackyJ
10:59 AM on 04/08/2010
That's precisely what I thought when I listened to a report about this on NPR the other day.

If Greenspan were a baseball player, batting .700 would be fantastic.

But the economic well-being of America, and the world, needs a Fed Chairman with a bit better success rate... or, at the least, one who can recognize when he's wrong while he's still on the job.
10:39 AM on 04/08/2010
Greenspan?
He is a member of the Reformed Church of Rand. They are right 70% of the time, a great improvement.
Pure Randians are right 100% of the time. The prophet Ayn herself was right 200% of the time.
10:32 AM on 04/08/2010
Greenspan and his cronies understand one thing and one thing only - Wall Street Profits. Most Americans know it has gotten more and more difficult to make ends meet over the period of Greenspan and Bernanke. Whether that is the fault of Greenspan doesn't matter. Greenspan sees more Wall Street profits as the statistic that proves America is doing great. There's no other consideration by the Greenspan crew. Pollution, Minimum Wage, Average Wage, Cost of Living, etc can all go in the wrong direction - if Wall Street profits are going up, they see America is doing well.
olddognewtrick
Half full or half empty...It's the same
10:23 AM on 04/08/2010
What if a Major Leage Baseball player on hit the ball 30% of the time?
09:21 AM on 04/08/2010
This has been a waste of the taxpayer's money. We all know that Mr Greenspan and his ilk are guilty of massive fraud. Just like we all know Wall Street is one big gamed insider scam where manipulation rules under the guise of speculation. It's being enabled by the collusive corruption from their bought and paid for politicians. That is why we have this dog and pony show as opposed to indictmens. Here's an anology for you, Mr Greenspan. A broken clock is right twice a day.
10:35 AM on 04/08/2010
Mr. Greenspan would be praising the broken clock as long term forecaster of Time. It's right 2 times a day, 365 times a year. It's right 730 times a year, that's pretty good results using Greenspan logic.
09:17 AM on 04/08/2010
60% of the time, it works allll the time...
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
06:50 AM on 04/08/2010
That could be America's new motto. Seventy percent is good enough.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
realpolitic
GOP is full of sound and fury, signifying nothing!
04:14 AM on 04/08/2010
If Greenspan got it right 70% of the time, his tenure deserves a grade of C-.