On the same day that Iraqi forces recaptured Ramadi, CNN released the results of a poll showing that nearly three out of four Americans are not satisfied with the way that the war on terrorism is going. The very next day the Pentagon announced that 10 more ISIS leaders had been killed in coalition airstrikes, including some allegedly linked to the Paris attacks. These successes build on previous ones. In November, Kurdish forces recaptured Sinjar in northern Iraq and gained control of a strategic ISIS supply route. That same month an American drone killed the infamous executioner Jihadi John. A good case can thus be made that the U.S. is winning the struggle against the Islamic State. Why then are Americans so pessimistic and frightened?
The answer lies in the gap between how people perceive threats and how serious those threats really are. The attacks in Paris and San Bernardino coming fast on the heels of bombings in Beirut and the downing of a Russian airliner over the Sinai have made a powerful impression on everyone, just as ISIS intended they should. They have created the mistaken impression that the Islamic State can hit its enemies whenever and where ever it likes. These attacks have also convinced many observers that the extremist organization is gaining in strengthen when it may in fact be weakening. As ISIS gets squeezed at home, it lashes out abroad.
Unfortunately, the nature of this conflict produces few if any great victories to celebrate. Successes in the struggle against ISIS have been small, steady and incremental while setbacks have been infrequent but dramatic. Even though the growing coalition of nations ranged against the Islamic State have done far more damage to it than it has done to them, appearances sometimes contradict this reality. Intense media coverage has magnified the impact of the Paris and San Bernardino attacks. There is plenty of footage and moving testimony from each of these incidents but no images at all of the successful airstrikes that have been taking out ISIS leaders. This discrepancy can make it look like we are losing even when we are winning.
Understandably though, Americans preparing to celebrate this New Year's Eve may well be asking, "Will I be safe from terrorist attack?" I wish I could answer that question with an emphatic "yes," but a quarter century of studying terrorism has made me painfully aware that there is always a risk, however small, that an attack will occur. The chance of any one person becoming a victim of terrorism during his or her entire lifetime is, however, quite small -- much lower than the possibility of being killed in a car accident. So if you want to increase your safety this holiday weekend wear a seat belt, don't drink and drive, and beware of icy roads.