Five weeks ago, most Oscar experts polled by Gold Derby believed Silver Linings Playbook was out front to win Best Picture, followed by Lincoln in second place. Since then, the forecasts have changed radically with Argo zooming to the front of the pack and Les Miserables (11 to 2) in the place position.
Now 12 of the 25 Oscarologists back Argo, giving it 9 to 2 odds to prevail. Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post) just ditched Les Miserables to jump onto the Argo bandwagon and Thelma Adams (Yahoo) and Chuck Walton (Fandango) dropped Silver Linings Playbook in favor of Ben Affleck's drama about U.S. hostages in Iran. See the predictions of all 25 pundits here.
The chart below shows how momentum has shifted among the ponies on the Best Picture track. The numbers on the left side of the graph represent percentage of support based uponracetrack odds generated by the predictions.
The Best Actor chart reveals less volatility among contenders, but nonetheless there are interesting trends. Notice that Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) led in late September, but now Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) has garnered a commanding lead. See how the experts rank all contenders now according to likelihood of winning and the racetrack odds generated.
See more Oscar predictions charts here.
Follow Tom O'Neil on Twitter: www.twitter.com/goldderby