Moderate right-wing forces have gained traction in the last two months in countries known recently for embracing "national popular projects." Business-friendly politicians have ridden anger over economic decline, corruption scandals, and a general weariness with a decade of left-center rule to key victories in several prominent countries. Despite this new energy, several institutional challenges and overreaches threaten to cut short conservatives' honeymoon period.
In Argentina, businessman Mauricio Macri won the presidency by a comfortable 51.3 to 48.7 percent. He mainly ran an apolitical campaign, promising to bring "hope" and "joy" and "build the trust...that we need in Argentina." In his inaugural address, Macri quoted 1960s president Arturo Frondizi, a proponent of US President John F. Kennedy's development philosophy, promising to return Argentina to the "path of growth." Macri said this return cannot not rely on governmental policy, but draws on a national "desire for progress," an "intelligent optimism as the result of [our] work." This reference seemed to be a swipe at the clientilistic trend of his predecessor Cristina Kirchner's healthcare and welfare programs, many of which Macri nevertheless promises to maintain.
In Brazil, a political crisis driven by President Dilma Rousseff's historically low approval ratings and a corruption probe into a bipartisan embezzlement scandal has allowed conservatives to move forward with impeachment proceedings over Rousseff's budget accounting.
In Venezuela, the opposition seized a two-thirds majority in congressional elections. Such a majority, if it stands up to electoral challenges, could recall Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, convoke a convention to rewrite the country's constitution, and free opposition leaders some who government adversaries believe Maduro jailed using false evidence.
Despite the right's rosy rhetoric,critical observers might see conservative promises as two-faced. Despite previously criticizing unilateral executive actions, Macri has resorted to sweeping executive decrees that undo a bipartisan media regulation law limiting the size of multimedia conglomerates. The Argentine Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the law in 2013. The same court had months before struck down Kirchner's previous proposals to turn judicial positions into elected offices. Macri also angered some in his own coalition last month by using recess appointment powers to bypass the Senate's confirmation of two judicial nominees to the Supreme Court.
The Venezuelan opposition has rightly raised concerns surrounding government intimidation of judges , regulation of opposition media, and the jailing of opposition leaders. But it has still failed to reckon with how its own blatant efforts at overthrowing firebrand populist Hugo Chavez in a 2002 military coup might have contributed to the longevity of chavista rule. Some international observers and supporters of the government allege the coup had the tacit support of some in the media establishment and the US Government. Chavez often used the failed attempt to explain his mistrust for traditional institutions and his push to solidify his party in power.
Today's right can also look to less extreme examples of conservative shortcomings. The center-right administration of Sebastian Piñera, which came to power in 2010 in Chile on an anti-corruption platform, suffered from student protests and business corruption scandals that quickly returned Piñera's predecessor, Michelle Bachelet, to power. To be fair, similar problems have plagued Bachelet's most recent term.
The head of Brazil's lower Chamber of Deputies, Eduardo Cunha, diverting from his own ethics battle over the transparency of his foreign bank accounts failed to follow due process in guiding the impeachment process. Brazil's Supreme Court last month upheld several government complaints of irregularity. One such violation was a reliance on secret ballots to elect the impeachment committee that draws up formal articles. Impeachment proponents had also hoped to bypass the government-friendly Senate's article ratification procedures and proceed directly to trial, which would temporarily remove the President from office.
Even moving for impeachment carries a risk of backlash. To the north, former US Speaker Newt Gingrich's 1998 efforts to impeach former President Bill Clinton only strengthened the president. Gingrich moved to impeach Clinton over perjury regarding sexual improprieties while he himself was having an affair. A year before, the Republican controlled House voted to reprimand Gingrich for lying during an ethics investigation regarding his use of non-profit money for personal projects. The impeachment effort bolstered Clinton's approval ratings and the President's party gained seats in a mid-term election, an unprecedented feat for an incumbent party.
Conservatives in Latin America might do well to heed these US and Latin American cautionary tales of political hypocrisy and overreach. If the lower-middle class voters key to the center-right's recent political victories, procedural and electoral, take a jaded view of the recent wave, conservative gains may prove fleeting. Conservatives rely on a moral discourse to contrast with populist pragmatism. Absent this advantage, key constituencies might choose a corruption that benefits them to an empty sanctimony that leaves them empty-handed.Impeachers,opposition congressmen, and decreeing presidents beware.