Yesterday Changed Everything

Look, I voted for Senator Obama here in New York. He's a wonderful man and will make a dynamic and powerful President, but Senator Obama and the Hillary haters out there can cover their ears and shout, "I'm not listening! I'm not listening!" like my six-year-old does when I try to tell him something he doesn't want to hear. Not listening will not change the facts on the ground.

Just like the day after New Hampshire, yesterday changed everything.

As we saw in the last twelve races where Obama ran up the score, momentum is everything and his momentum was stopped in its tracks last night while she is going to be catapulted forward. She will be very hard to beat in Pennsylvania and if Michigan and Florida are done over she is favored to win them as well. Even though probably she will still be a few delegates shy of him she will have won most every major state except his home state of Illinois.

Coming into the convention they both will have equal arguments as to their worthiness and electability.

So what are we to do? Two things.

First, Obama fans have to stop hating on Hillary and pouting that if he doesn't get the nod they are going home with all their toys. My fear for some time has been that some Obama fans have been acting like the Naderites that delivered the White House to Bush. Naderites felt that there was no difference between Gore and Bush and we all know how that turned out.

And the more-recent phenomenon of Hillary fans being tempted by McCain has also got to cease. Both candidates need to be supremely cautious about triangulating their fire so that it wounds and defines McCain as well.

Hillary's 3am ad is an example of what cannot go on any longer if Democrats hope to win in November. Another example is Obama lumping Hillary in with McCain in supporting the war in Iraq. Neither is true. I realize that both are the most-powerful weapons they have been using against each other but if they want a Democrat in the White House they have to stow those weapons. Talk about the economy. Tell us that we're already in a recession and about your plans for getting us out.

After having the 2000 and 2004 elections stolen from us we Democrats need to show the nation and the world that among us democracy thrives and the nominee of our party is chosen fairly.

If Hillary does manage to get the nod she will have to offer the Vice-Presidency to Obama and if he is sincere in his commitment to service to this country he will take it.

If Obama wins I predicted here that he should pick Jim Webb but Hillary's Lazarus-like showing yesterday and the growing fervor with which women are coming to her campaign makes me think that for the good of the party he would have to offer her the second slot and she would have to swallow her pride and take it.

Or, if the fighting gets too ugly and they're both too bloodied, then behind closed doors Democratic leaders could float the name of Al Gore and he could be swept in on the convention floor. Then he'd pick Obama as his VP.

Interesting times.

Trey Ellis is the author of Bedtime Stories: Adventures in the Land of Single-Fatherhood.

Comments

[vsign]

Obama says he can win the General and Hillary can't. I don't believe him. He seems like a nice man and a good poker player. But why make him President?

My question is - why would most Americans fall for choosing a newcomer to become President? And why would we fall for Obama saying he can win the General?

We have not had any time to even see him react to anything a bit? His negatives will sky rocket once a little time goes by.

He is a newcomer. Americans will not make a newcomer President. This is where the word "naive" occurs to me.

When I see Obama as a tele evangelist and somewhat of a pacifist, he isn't very likeable to me.

When I see him as a politician, like everyone else, he is less likeable.

He definately hides behind the preachers podium for a reason. It makes it harder to see him for what he is. A flawed person like all of us.

But with enormous ambition.

There is a seasoning I require when it comes to choosing the right leader for all of us.

The Democrats as a party, have been maligned for not showing our colors enough. I want to show my colors.

I love this country and do not want a newcomer leading us.

[Herrington]

Keep trying vsign. You are getting better. Better if you do not consider that you started posting here with the admonition that Obama must be a latter day Hitler because of his speaking skill.

Since FDR, all presidents must be newcomers by the nature of term limits. I guess you could argue that a second term President is not a newcomer, but thats about it. In age Obama is comparable to many past Presidents, in experience too. And to argue that Clinton has more experience is just a talking point. She was the First Lady and did pro bono legal work, as is required for associates in most reputable law firms, and counts both as experience. Obama has the longer and more consistent resume for public service.

[vsign]

Bill Clinton's father was not a foreigner. Americans have elected protestants and one catholic presidents. We have put a jewish man on the ticket. We have not put any persons on the Presidential ticket ,that I know of, who were lst generation children of foreigners.

Let people work and live here for a few generations. Let them get to know all of our people. Let them become Americans.

Let future leaders get their hands dirty before choosing them for the highest office of the land.

[eaglecapri]

Trey,

Trust your initial instinct: 'I've seen the future - Obama Webb Sweep to Victory!'

Tuesday was a set back. A big one. It's not over. Obama said that 'the road would be steep'. Have you been listening? The Clintons are not God. Have faith and hope.

Obama's nomination - without Hillary anywhere on the ticket - is wrapped up in her tax returns as well as in the records being held hostage at Fort Knox...I mean the Clinton library. With a little help, she will be forced to release these records so that, once and for all, we can wish the Clintons farewell and good luck without any regrets and her voter support behind Obama.

By the way, she knows that her TX-Oh campaign strategy was 'low down and dirty' and is now trying eek her way onto the nomination ticket (Because she deserves it right?) by declaring we're heading toward an Obama-Clinton ticket. Huh? WTF? She's so basic. The damage is done and now she's trying to play nice. Haven't we seen this all before?

All I have to say is - Release the tax returns! Release the tax returns! (Sorry, I couldn't resist a little Godfather humor.)

[DRHoen]

I agree that Clinton's attacks must deescalate. But the problem is, that's probably the main reason she won in Texas. So, her choice may be "the kitchen sink" or lose.

[FreedomLoverX]

Hillary is bad for our country. I don't hate her. I am sick to death of presidents who suck. Obama might be a breath of fresh air. We already know about Hillary. When folks honestly compare the two, Obama has to win. No - I will not get passed being forced to choose, once again, between two candidates I don't like, having once again to vote for the lesser of two evils. She is corrupt and owned by special interests. Shi plays nasty politics, and doesn't mind seeing the party torn apart - just so she wins. Who does she really care about? I will not feel good about Hillary.

I hope she goes to the Whitehouse, just to stop by and return all the stuff she stole.

[Herrington]

The only thing that changed is that Clinton is now Huckabee. She managed to eke out a victory in a couple of states that were squarely in her win column since "day one". The fact that Obama closed the margins is the story. Momentum has not changed at all. She will continue to throw mud, day by day sucking the wind out of Democratic sails for downticket candidates and local issues. It is the only way she can win. So the substance of which she speaks has now become anti-substance.

If somehow Clinton manages to wrest a nomination from the superdelegates, I will take a barf bag to the polls and vote for her. At the very least the down ticket candidates deserve the consideration of showing up. And as long as you are there, you might as well vote against McCain.

[DRHoen]

Barf bag. LOL.

[BitJam]

Yes, last night did change things. Before last night Clinton was behind by 155 delegates with only 981 to go. This meant she needed to win 16% more delegates than Obama in order to catch up. She needed to 58 extra delegates last night but instead she only got about 10. Oops.

She is now much further behind Obama than she was yesterday. She needs to get an extra 144 delegates but there are only 611 left so from now on she needs to win every race by 24% margins. Just like her campaign said a couple of weeks ago, she really needed to win Texas and Ohio with 20 point margins but she didn't even come close.

Before last night, it was extremely unlikely that she would catch up with Obama. Today it is impossible. This is what changed last night.

[Davhed]

Obama supporters fail to acknowledge what happen TX,OH,RI . This is far from over . But as usual
they are so taking in by the platitudes, an hope . Why can't Obama win a big state ? there is very good
reason . People are paying attention they looking for substance ,solutions . Obama might still win but it
will be an uphill battle . People are taking a second look at this guy it will only get worse for him.

[tiredofwaiting]

Good points, and I agree. In fighting HAS to stop if Democrats are going to win.
If Gore is called on,I think he'd pick an outsider. Maybe someone like Bloomberg.

[DietrichMoody]

I disagree with your perspective. From a Primary perspective, from a technical perspective, from a delegate perspective, from a popular vote perspective, from a mood of the Country perspective, from a across the Country state vote perspective, from a number's perspective, and from a Democratic Party perspective, NOTHING HAS CHANGED.

FROM AN AN EMOTIONAL PERSPECTIVE. Things changed. But this is not a Lifetime Movie. This is not Hollywood, this is not the movies as dramatic as at can be exaggerated. But if you think this Election is about Hillary Clinton, than the Republicans have you beat.

[glorija]

I am an Obama supporter and, after listening to what you had to say, Mr. Ellis, I respectfully disagree. I am a Democrat (and a woman) and I would be ashamed to see someone like Hillary Clinton in the White House. She gave up every principle in order to win. That's not my view of politics, and that's not my view of what the Democratic nominee ought to do in order to become a president.

[S1m0n]

The fact that Barack Obama is energising, and can deliver, millions of new supporters to the Democratic party coalition is an entirely legitimate factor to weigh in the party's decision making, as is its corrollary; that a Hillary Clinton will drive these same new members off, reducing the party to the same core that lost the past two elections.

That's not a threat, that's a reality, and its vitally important information for the party as a whole to know.

If Obama wins the nod, it will be by expanding the party far beyond its base; if Clinton wins, it will be by shrinking the party back down to its base. The additional support Obama can bring will benefit the party at every part of the ticket, turning a number of marginal contests blue.

[hepwa]

The fact that Barack Obama is energizing and delivering millions of new supporters to the Democratic Party, it doesn't change the fact that in big population states, he has not closed the deal. Why can't he close the deal? Because the sum of America is not the groundswell we see in the news any more than the winner of American Idol is truly the greatest and most deserving singer in the country. The irrational fear of Hillary Clinton by the far left of the Democratic Party is unfounded and quite embarrassing.

[Lemeritus]

Maybe. Maybe not. And that applies to every indulgent screed on both sides of this contest.

As for me, I'm a member of the Democratic "base"... I've put leather to the pavement to vote in every election since the time I was old enough to vote, not just when I was excited, but every single time because I'm a citizen and that's my job. I've worked the polls because as an American it's a great privilege (and boring as hell sometimes). I've stuffed campaign envelopes because I'm not good on the phone and I don't have a lot of money to contribute, but I believe my party wears the white hats.

I have nothing against "millions of new supporters" -- I just wonder where you were before and how I can be expected to depend on you now amid all the threats to, as Mr. Ellis says, go home with all your toys. And, you know something? I need to depend on you because there's a maniac in the White House and another one on the horizon. We're not the enemy -- we're the good guys. If all you have to contribute is the vilification of one of our candidates, maybe we'll just have to soldier on without you.

[whimsicalpig]

a great many americans don't find him energising, they find his agenda energizing, but somewhat frighening to say the least.

until i see how this "change" is going to happen, (who are the 61 senators and 180+ congressmen who will buck their K-street sponsors and initiate his agenda of change) I feel that we are buying the proverbial pig-in-a-poke.
(Please don't name those on capital hill who have endorsed him, those are just pay-back votes against the clintons)

this is NOT the time to be hitting the do-you-feel-lucky button

I need more info from his side , his rhetoric means nothing, reagan had great rhetoric and look where his administration took our budget,

we are being asked to support an unknown or the most hated woman in politics

crikees how did we get so far down the crapper

[YellerDawg]

I hope the party I have supported for forty years will give more consideration to this dilemma than you did. Your simplistic assumptions smell like Kool-Aid and won't bring our party together to defeat the real enemy.

[BHWolf]

T H A N K Y O U!! You are sooooooo right on the money.

We, the Democratic faithfuls have to stick together and stay together. If JM wins the White House we will have no one to blame except the kids in the corner; you know the ones they will be kicking and screaming and blaming everyone else but themselves!

[swoosie1]

Please--enough of the Al Gore talk. He is off milking his Nobel and he could care less about this party or he would have endorsed a long time ago. Personally I would resent someone swooping in to rescue us from the democratic process as difficult as it may be at this point. But the deal is that if they work through the issues, and they will, a candidate will emerge. Yes, that's right. We will have a nominee. Now it is true that this nominee might be defined by the superdelegates, but that is how this works, like it or not. Thems is the rules kids. Let's play by the rules and see what we have to work with and get behind the candidate and the vp. It is fair. It could be no more fair than this. The fact of the matter is that both candidates MUST use superdelegates to get to 2025. This is the way it is done. There IS NO WINNER UNTIL EITHER ONE REACHES THAT THRESHOLD NUMBER. The nomination is not given based on getting 3/4 of the way. It is all or nothing. So follow the rules and may the best woman win!

[repearwo]

People, like me, who are strongly opposed to Hillary geting anywhere near the White House as a resident are not just petulant children. It is possible to have a reasoned opposition that will not yield.

Hillary is a person who want to be President at any cost. That is strike one.

Next she voted for action against Iraq and Iran. Strike Two.

THen she said that "if she knew then what whe knows now" she would have voted different. BS. She voted that way so she could look strong on National Defense when she ran for President (strike one). In her mind was no concern for the troops. Yousay "how do I know what was in Hillary's mind?" I reply that I do not, but it is pretty clear either she was to lazy to know what I knew in Austin, Texas, as a lowly wopking man, or she lied about her motivation. In any case she did not take care of the men and women in uniform and voted to send almost 4,000 people to their deaths - for no good reason.

Now I do not know about you but for the last eight year I have had to say that either my President was stupid or a Liar. I do not want to spend the next four that way with a Bush Lite Democrat. She is either lasy or a liar. I do not want her as the PResident or a heart beat away from being president.

For me it is Obama-Richardson, or Obama-Webb will do. Anything less is voting for 4 more years of the same old stuff. The only difference between Hillary and McCain is gender.

[LeftRight]

First, Jimm Webb lost my respect when he agreed with the moron in the WH to allow the telecoms to do whatever the hell that they want without a warrant. Second, four years with Hillary, or even eight years with Hillary as a republican lite is MUCH better than 4 or 8 years with McBush, who is not republican lite, he's just republican!

[elmundo6]

Huh? Where do you get your news????

Trey, I don't agree that Obama supporters won't support Hillary if she gets the nod. That is not what I'm seeing. I'm seeing and hearing the opposite. According to Pew, many Hillary supporters are saying they'd support McCain if Obama gets the nod. That is problematic and troubling. I don't understand how anyone who cares about individual liberties would hand McCain the presidency since he has already pledged to put "strict constructionists" on the High Court. That of course means Roe would be a goner. Lawrence and Grutter won't be too far behind. I hear none of the feminists, who think it's OK to beat up on Barak and run to McCain, addressing that issue. Obama may very well get the nomination, and if he does, what will Hillary supporters do? Don't blame him if some Democrats would rather see a Repub in the White House than a Harvard educated community activist, who has been ranked the most liberal (progressive) senator in the Senate.

[LeftRight]

"...Trey, I don't agree that Obama supporters won't support Hillary if she gets the nod. That is not what I'm seeing. I'm seeing and hearing the opposite. According to Pew, many Hillary supporters are saying they'd support McCain if Obama gets the nod...."

I'm hearing the opposite, that many who are supporters of Obama would jumop ship if Hillary got the nod, and I have only met a couple of people for the other direction.