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Trita Parsi

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Obama Draws Red Lines and Distinctions on Iran in AIPAC Speech

Posted: 03/ 4/2012 12:24 pm

Despite the words of friendship, the diverging perspectives of the Obama administration and the Netanyahu government on key issues in the Middle East -- the Arab uprisings, the Palestinian issue and the Iranian nuclear program -- are profound.

The dispute on the nuclear issue is centered on red lines. Israel, like the Bush administration, considers a nuclear capability in Iran a red line. It argues that the only acceptable guarantee that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon is for Iran to have no enrichment program.

The Obama administration puts the red line not at enrichment -- which is permitted under international law -- but at nuclear weapons. This is a clearer, more enforceable red line that also has the force of international law behind it.

While expressing his sympathy and friendship with Israel, Obama did not yield his red line at AIPAC. With the backing of the U.S. military, he has stood firm behind weaponization rather than weapons capability as the red line.

He said: "I have said that when it comes to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon[emphasis added], I will take no options off the table, and I mean what I say."

This is crucial because it is essentially a question of war and peace.

Critically, Obama's rejection of containment at AIPAC was in the context of containing a nuclear-armed Iran, not a nuclear capable Iran.

He said: "Iran's leaders should know that I do not have a policy of containment; I have a policy to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon."

Nowhere in the speech is he aligning himself, or even mentioning, the Israeli red line of "nuclear capability."

The president's tough words regarding his readiness to use military action is all in the context of preventing a nuclear weapon in Iran, not a nuclear capability. Strikingly, the president uses the D word -- diplomacy -- more than the M word -- military action -- in his speech (even though he primarily presents it as move that enabled greater sanctions on Iran.)

The Israeli red line is a fast track to an unnecessary and counterproductive war. This is why the U.S. military and Obama so adamantly opposes this red line -- because it ensures both war and a nuclear-armed Iran down the road.

Trita Parsi, Ph.D. is the author of A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama's Diplomacy with Iran

 
 
 

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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
OllaBarabolla
08:19 AM on 03/06/2012
If Ameirca is to be involved in another war, then bring back the draft. Everyone between certain ages
must serve, no excuses.
09:02 AM on 03/06/2012
now thats borderline rediculous. our military is more than sizable as of right now. all that would do is create turmoil in the minds of everyday-joes such as yourself and i on weather or not we were going to have to leave our families.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
OllaBarabolla
11:11 AM on 03/06/2012
crash 234 -Our military has been overburdened by the last two wars, one of which is still going one. the wealthy got tax breaks & the working class got to go to war (in our volunteer forces)
more then 30 thousand have been wounded, we cannot keep reclycling the others, some
of who are already being defacto drafted because they have been called back at the end of their volunteer period.
everyone should share the burden of defending our "freedom's" against the tyrants like
the ayatolahs who would nuke us the first chance they got.
08:07 AM on 03/06/2012
I have no idea where President Obama stands on this issue. He is playing a very dangerous game. On this issue vote present doesn't count.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gfs5541
05:36 AM on 03/06/2012
To be honest, I think the whole "Iran is making a nuclear weapon" story is total BS. Either Israel produces evidence of Iran making nukes or shut it! We can't afford another war.
11:23 AM on 03/07/2012
Then why are they building a heavy water plant inside of a mountain? If this was for legit purposes, then wouldn't they build a light water reactor in the open for the IAEA to inspect? Light water is all that is required to make ample power generation(especially in a country that doesn't use a lot of electricity and has its own oil production).
03:16 AM on 03/06/2012
I notice Bibi Netanyahu has never learned to say please.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
glpur1
reluctant revolutionary
12:52 AM on 03/06/2012
There is one huge problem in Dr. Parsi's position, to-wit: his conclusion that because a politician "says" he will do a thing he will in fact "do" that thing. Not to single this president out (because he's probably no worse than many others) but remember: "will have most transparent government". "will close Gitmo", " will appoint no lobbyists", "will secure the borders", etc, etc, etc?
It is always amazing to watch highly educated people conclude that a president will most certainly do what he says he will do when the evidence to the contrary is so overwhelming. In fact it is rare and therefore very noteworthy when they actually do what they say they will do. Why do you think people are turning off totally to politics and politicians?
11:43 PM on 03/05/2012
How is it possible to reverse capability or know how?! The Is_raelis red line appears illogical. Even wars cannot reverse capability if not enforce it. Iran is under the greatest sanction in its history. In 1918 Iran lost nearly half of its population of 23 millions to malnutrition due to economic and food sanctions imposed by Britain. How would Iran run its nuclear power plants if it cannot get fuel from the World Market? For its own energy security and independence, Iran has no choice but to maintain enrichment capability for its domestic use.
www.raceforiran.com
www.ifamericanknew.org
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
vcgh2000
11:19 PM on 03/05/2012
If Israel is ready to attack Iran because they fear a Iranian nuclear attack, I guess they don't have much faith in our Arrow 2 and Patriot anti-missile missiles that protect them.
08:38 PM on 03/05/2012
This is what we know for sure. The US has thousands of nuclear weapons, Israel also several hundred, India and Pakistan have produced nuclear weapons, and Iran might possibly be developing the capability. So who is it that needs to be getting rid of their nuclear weapons programs and dismantling their nukes? It is not Iran. All of this turmoil is a bunch of hogwash that obscures the real truth.

And if we want to talk about terrorist action and potential aggression - let's look no farther than the US which has attacked more countries during the past 60 years than probably the rest of the world combined; at Israel that is conducting an illegal occupation and engaging in war crimes on an on-going basis; and both countries' use of missiles and drones that kill civilians on a regular basis.

It is as clear as can be as to which are the "rogue states" and are a threat to international peace.

Enough said,

Rob Wheeler
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
vcgh2000
11:28 PM on 03/05/2012
It's nice to see that Americans are starting to ask tough questions about the course of American foreign policy. There was a time twenty years ago when your post would bring down the wrath of the "paid posters" who defend any, and all, Israeli actions. Hopefully, this can be the start of a new dialogue that can eventually bring peace to the Middle East.
11:51 PM on 03/05/2012
Smoke screen is the name of the game. Notice that there has been no mention in the MSM of Palestinians suffering and Gaza's blockade that has created a disaster and left hospitals without electric power!!
www.ifamericanknew.org
mrrgl
Brevity is the soul of wit.
07:22 PM on 03/05/2012
America's interest should be paramount. Period! Endless wars results in endless poverty.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
vcgh2000
11:33 PM on 03/05/2012
Got that right. Today, I found out the cost of the Cold War...1948-1991 13.1 Trillion dollars in constant 1996 dollars.
07:08 PM on 03/05/2012
Mr. Parsi, as President of the National Iranian American Council, can you just once talk about what Iran can do and not just what Israel should or should not do? Iran could solve this problem very simply by complying with their international agreements and allow the IAEA unfettered access for inspections. It is Iran's unwillingness to cooperate that is creating this tension. All indications are they have no interest whatsover in a peaceful resolution or they would not be constantly stalling and misleading. Israel has every right to be fearful of a Theocratic regime, bent on her destruction, having nuclear weapons capability. The real solution is to remove that regime from power and the world can only hope the Iranian people have the courage and conviction to make that a reality.
12:01 AM on 03/06/2012
Iran destroying Is_rael by using nukes does absolutely make no sense. The main hostility of Iran towards Is_rael is due to occupation of Palestinian land. Destroying Is_rael using nukes, would destroy Palestine too. Being a rational player, Iran sees no advantage of this action rather than endangering Iran's to nuke attack from Is_raelis nuclear submarines.
www.ifamericanknew.org
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Heisenbergs madness
05:29 PM on 03/05/2012
The Israeli government have been stockpiling nuclear weapons for a few decadess now. That's enough deterrent to Iran if the Ayatollahs start having funny ideas. Maybe the Iranians just want to go nuclear because Israel is already Nuclear....just evening out the game.
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fuster
"The fuster we go, the rounder we get"
04:41 PM on 03/05/2012
good post to point to the distinction in Israeli and US policy.
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03:00 PM on 03/05/2012
we are in trouble
02:47 PM on 03/05/2012
The real question is how will anyone know that Iran has nuclear weapons until one is used by Iran? Up to that red line then no action will or should be taken against Iran. But in a literla sense - that will be too late !!
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Wheelo
A man a plan a canal Panama
05:08 PM on 03/05/2012
People will know when they test a device. That said, having a working device and being able to deliver it on a target is a big step in an of itself.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
politicky
just follow the $$$
02:08 PM on 03/05/2012
Thank you Dr. Parsi, for your sane, calm and reasoned responses. I for one appreciate them.