Two weeks ago, I wrote an analysis for ForeignPolicy.com, arguing that engagement should remain the policy with Iran, but that a tactical pause is necessary to make sure diplomacy succeeds. I argued that this wasn't necessary just because Washington would be wise not to engage with any faction in Iran before greater political clarity about the internal political situation in Iran can be found. Or because the outcome of the political fight in Iran can determine which Iran the world will deal with for decades to come.
Rather, the key argument was that the political chaos in Iran has made Tehran incapable of negotiating with the U.S. If the U.S. adheres to its pre-Iranian election crisis timeline, and seeks engagement with Iran prior to September, it risks dealing with an Iran that can't negotiate, can't decide and can't deliver.
Moreover, even nuclear talks would have a negligible impact on the election dispute. Iran currently is not in a position to negotiate. Some in Washington believe that the paralysis in Tehran has weakened Iran and made it more prone to compromise. But rather than delivering more, Iran's government currently couldn't deliver anything at all. The infighting has simply incapacitated Iranian decision makers.Iran's lack of capacity creates a tremendous danger for the White House. Of all scenarios the Obama administration could end up facing -- an Iran that refuses to come to the table, for example, or an Iran that only uses talks to play for time -- the worst scenario is another one: where the parties begin talks according to the set timetable, but fail to reach an agreement due to an inability to deliver. If talks fail, U.S. policymakers will be left with increasingly unpalatable options as a result.
Obama should not be married to any artificial deadlines. Pushing for talks now simply because he decided on a timetable before the elections could undermine the chances for diplomacy to succeed. Paradoxically, the best way to enhance prospects for diplomacy might actually be not to pursue diplomacy for now. Better instead to make a tactical pause, see how things develop, and be ready to engage at the right time.
The main argument against a pause has come from those tending to view Iran solely from the nuclear prism. In their view, the nuclear clock keep ticking and the US cannot afford to lose any more time. Iran will soon, if it hasn't already, pass a mystical nuclear point of no return, they argue.
While I argued in the Foreignpolicy.com piece that "Delaying nuclear talks a few months won't make a dramatic difference to Iran's nuclear program," that article was written before the publication of the latest DNI report, which stated that, "While Iran has made significant progress in uranium enrichment technology, the State Department's intelligence bureau (INR) continues to assess it is unlikely that Iran will have the technical capability to produce HEU [highly enriched uranium] before 2013."
So, if the U.S. has four years, rather than three months, to address the Iranian nuclear program through diplomacy before Iran can produce HEU, then the case for a pause is stronger than ever. Indeed, mindful of the fact that few at State believe the Iranians will or can begin negotiations in September, the biggest mistake the U.S. can commit is to begin setting deadlines that no one -- including the U.S. itself -- believes can be held up.
In fact, it's that bad Bush-Cheney habit of substituting diplomacy with the dictation of unrealistic deadlines that weakened America's negotiating position vis-à-vis Iran in the first place.
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Dear Economical Powers,
Your governments due to massive financial/ Economical benefits have cooporated for over 30 years with an EVIL regime called Islamic Republic.
Despite their claims of discontent and disapproval of such barbaric regime occupying Iran for 30 years and killing Iranians, all your governments have sold things (from A to Z) to Iran with up to 300 times more than its current Price and value in a world market today!!! Islamic Republic is simply your best possible customer!!
You see, we Iranians know that your goverments need VILLAINS such as Islamic Republic to portry an unstable world and a Country such as Iran with 2nd and 3rd wealth of Natural oil and gases globally!By doing massive business behind the stage with Islamic Republic you have financially dried us already!
Your government's actions have cost many Thousands of Iranian lives already! Imagine 911 and other tragedies that has happend in the world!!! We Iranians are under same conditions!!!! Stop supporting Islamic Republic directly or indirectly NOW. In a very near future things will change in Iran and subsequently around the world! Iran will eventually FREE herelf from injustice and tyranny. Believe me you would still want to do business with us...
Iranians will deal with the whole world humanly, respectfully and fairly and will not ask for anything less from your sides....
Peace and Love again from Tehran...
As an Iranian I disagree with you! En contrer, The time line is exactly what Iran, Iranians and the whole world absolutely needs! And we are not just talking about the Nuclear issue...
Giving any "Tactical Pause" only benefits Islamic Republic to carry on with its crimes against humanity/Iranians Sir!!!
To avoid another world war, Mullahs must fight within! Whichever side wins, we shall take care of them later, one by one...
Mr. Parsi, after what has been proven to the whole world by now (which Iranian have known for 30 years), True Iranians (more than 87% of population in Iran) don't want to have anything with Islam of any sort of oppressive mentality and regime!!!!
Like any other sovergein nation, Iranains want their basic human rights, Freedom, Justice, Independence and democracy.
True Iranians want to love and be loved by the whole world, regradless of their Religon, Race, Color and........... Something that Islamic Republic has never been able to deliver and never will...
Dear U.S. , Europeans and the whole world,
Iranians will be your best faithful friends and forever grateful to you all, if you help us Iranians to Free ourselves and the entire world from THESE CANCERS, MONSTERS,EVILS who are occupying IRAN and killing our defensless people Today!!! Not to mention, what the EVIL Islamic Republic is capable to inflict on the rest of the world!
Please help............
Love and Peace for the whole world.... (Sending out an S.O.S from Tehran)
However, the main issue here is that any engagement with the current government will be with illegitimate "representatives" of Iran who do not represent the people or their position. To make matters worse, if these masters of deception engage in talks, they will talk and talk and talk and the talks will not lead to anything substantial. The west may end up progressing a couple its own minor agenda items with the regime using the whole engagement to legitimise itself.
The Iranian regime must understand that it can not get away with the crimes against humanity that it is commiting on an ongoing basis and any engagement with the US will give them a strong message that actually they may be able to do what they want with the locals so long as they give the US what it wants.
Finally if the US does engage with the illegitimate reprentatives, will the masses in Iran still feel the same abouit the US? Ask the Iranian national football team coach, Afshin Ghotbi how the love of a nation can turn to hate over night. All he was guilty of was attending Ahmadinejad's "inauguration". This could be yet another US strategic error in the Middle East.
The Zionist forces are merely trying keep a struggling third world nation down, to keep it weak and divided, to not allow it to industrialize and to make progress in any area. Do you know why? Because there is a price associated with that. What is that price you ask? The Market share. Iran could be the Japan or China (economically) for its region. It has an educated population, resources and oil. So what it boils down to is the all mighty $$ (as ALWAYS).
However, these offers -- which included opening Iran's nuclear program to multinational particiation and which were endorsed by international and American experts -- have been totally ignored, and instead the US continues to insist that Iran should not make Highly Enriched Uranium OR EVEN low-enriched uranium useful only for reactors.
Under these circumstances, what is the point of negoting?