I am a natural optimist; as entrepreneurs tend to be. But I fear that the international excitement in the run up to COP15, with supporters and naysayers drawing battle lines and crossing swords, is perhaps masking reality. The truth, regardless of your views on the issue, is that the renewable targets set - from Australia's and EU's 20 percent of all electricity by 2020; India's 15 percent by 2020; and certain U.S., states' targets ranging up to 20 percent - are unachievable unless a significant and immediate change occurs in the international community's approach to properly tackling climate change.
The forecasts are sobering. World energy consumption is set to increase by a staggering 45 percent between 2006 and 2030. In contrast, the International Energy Agency's 2009 report estimated renewable energy growth at an average of just 2.9 percent a year for the same period - barely keeping up with demand growth. So, if we consider "20 by 20" as a global target we need to build toward, we will miss it by at least a decade. And if that is the road we are on, then the future looks very bleak indeed.
Without radical action to halt climate change, even the most conservative estimates put the rise in temperature at about three degrees Centigrade by 2050.# That will mean the polar ice caps will have melted, some countries will, literally, be under water, and all parts of the world will face extreme weather events. The impact on human society - mass migration and displacement - will be bad enough, before contemplating how many animal and plant species will become extinct. There can be no debate that we possess a collective moral responsibility to leave a better world for our children, rather than a devastated planet stripped of its resources.
But I began by saying I was an optimist. And even 10 years ago, climate change was not accepted by the majority. Indeed, renewables were viewed as a 'nice to have' rather than as essential, environment-friendly and secure energy supplies. Today, we are in a very different place. Wind has become an important part of the world's energy matrix, spreading to more than 80 countries, and adoption of solar continues to expand rapidly. Indeed, at the end of last year, enough wind-powered electricity was generated to power more than 25 million homes.*
But for the world to achieve our clean energy and emission targets for 2020 and beyond, we need go much further, much faster. We need more than a vision; we need revolutionary action.
We need to escalate COP15 above politics. It is not an exaggeration to see that, with the summit, we have the opportunity to reshape the future of the world. The negotiators, arriving in Copenhagen on December 7, need to carry the voice of the world with them: raising the bar and not lowering it, and not letting diplomatic niceties slow us down.
Governments needn't just set targets but level the playing field for renewables to make these targets achievable. The world's industry must gain incentives to stop polluting and to invest in clean technologies.
Above all, we need to mobilize as a people to make our voices heard and drive change; be ambassadors and educators to bring about real change in the way we use energy.
Change will not be easy. In 2007, renewables (excluding hydroelectric generation) represented merely five percent of global power capacity and 3.4 percent of global power generation.** Going from here to 20 per cent will require clear mandates and incentives to look toward a brand new energy future, one that we need to invest in now - to have the hope of a greener future
COP15 is the beginning, not the end. It can be a fresh start for the world to sit up and make enduring changes for the good of every man, woman and child on the planet. Where I sit today, I fear COP15 could just be a lot of hot air; I hope and pray I am proven wrong.
Tulsi Tanti is founder, chairman and managing director or Suzlon Energy Ltd., the leading wind energy company headquartered in Pune, India.
* # Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report
* * American Wind Energy Association, (http://awea.org/faq/wwt_basics.html)
* ** RENEWABLES 2007 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT (http://www.ren21.net/pdf/RE2007_Global_Status_Report.pdf)