Everyone is afraid to make ANY predictions now (including me), and that is probably a good thing. But there do seem to be some lessons from the past week's roller coaster ride.
1. Nobody likes inevitability; the "inevitable" nominee was punished in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
2. Everybody likes authencity; Hillary's passion and near-tears helped.
3. Democrats don't like ganging up or piling-on, especially against women; Edwards piling on Clinton brought out some sympathy, as did Obama's "you're like-able enough" attempt at humour. (Of course, the whole GOP field piled on against Romney, but he got no pity on that side of the aisle.)
4. Undecided people may behave VERY differently in a rowdy caucus environment (where the youthful energy of Obama's supporters was magnetic) than they behave in the quiet privacy of a voting booth.
5. Giving Oprah the week off was a big mistake, it turns out. Hillary was able to steal both the compassion vote and the women's vote in a short period - from Saturday through Tuesday - with no strong response from the Obama camp at all. Clinton brought out the big guns; Bill Clinton was blasting Obama with the memorable "fairy tale" line. Meanwhile, Obama's nuclear weapon, Oprah Winfrey, was probably thinking about what she would say at the inauguration ball. Big mistake, in hindsight.
The polls inevitably caused the Obama team to let down its guard; it seemed like big guns weren't needed in NH.
But nobody should ever underestimate the Clinton machine again.
Interesting the Oprah and Obama bond, since she, too, can be condescending at times.
Jon Stewart is dead right. Much ado about a moment when Hillary Clinton simply leveled. Characterized as "crying" by slopping writers in the press is, alas, a sign that many journalists have trouble with word choice today.
I'm fairly sure that women saw what I saw in the debate. Obama's attitude was clear and I've seen it from a lot of arrogant men in my lifetime. Condescending and smug.
THAT was the defining moment for this single woman voter.
The candidate, her/himself, must be able to convince the voter on the merit of her/his candidacy. It's not the celebrity who is going to be elected.
Dr Phil for Surgeon General
I noticed in one case some folks were wishing to resist this "race card" explanation because it might indicate that New Hampshire's Democrats actually could be thinking about "color" as they were in the booth.
I am not sure how much that it may have entered into the numbers but remember, if it did those Independents could have also voted Republican, which a lot of them did with McCain?
Obama may need to run more on his mixed race and more directly deal with his heritage. His "blackness" has been part of the equation for blacks as well as non-blacks but it should not overly shape the message.
The questions won't go away so he needs to find a way to use it to his advantage without turning voters off. Perception is as much a part of image as is the truth. The quicker he makes people more comfortable with the race issue, just below the surface, the better for him and America.
Clinton won the news cycle.
The dance here, however, is important. Will the next President reverse the damage of the Bush Administration's reign or not? Hillary -- whether or not she is seen as a sympathetic or warm personality -- won't. Obama may.
It's pathetic that so many cast their votes for the same emotional clap-trap that has them voting for an American Idol or celebrity dance competition. IF one voted for Hillary because she cried or because she wants the position so badly or because she got some bad press, then one is a damn fool. Those aren't legitimate concerns for an "informed electorate" -- just for the intellectually lazy Americans raised on far too much TV and pscyho-babble.
obama closed an 18 pt. gap in 2 months. pretty impressive, I'd say.
And in terms of delagates, it's a tie.
Folks, this is going to be a battle. Obama is up against the Clinton machine. Success will be hard, but it will be earned.
And it will make him a better candidate. This is the vetting process everyone has been asking for.
Where were the so-called "independents," yearning deeply for something completely different? Where were these scores of rebellious republicans anxious to cut from George W. Bush and run to Barack H. Obama?
Barack should've saved that stirring "yes, we can" speech for some other night because, in fact, no you didn't.
Where was any of the brave new coalition of kids and cross-overs Camp Obama claimed was ready for change? True -- they showed up to vote, but by the time they'd left the polls, their support for Mr. Obama vanished into thin air.
For that matter, so did Huckabee. Hard to believe one little town called Hope in Arkansas, one of the poorest states in the US could produce one President, and two Presidential candidates.
You wouldn't spend your whole life in a town name Hope and not know what this virtue means. Obama sits at the feet of the master.