Not Even a Woman Can Win It For McCain

FRANCE--Friday saw a brilliant move by John McCain in choosing Sarah Palin, the 44-year-old governor of Alaska, to be his running-mate. Theoretically, if you look at the polls which had McCain close to the Obama-Biden ticket before this announcement, his appointment of Palin ought to make up for all his deficiencies. Palin is young. She's female. She's attractive; she's got some celebrity, having been the runner-up in the Miss Alaska beauty pageant; She's also wins our sympathy: she has one son off to war in Iraq; her youngest, born this year, has Downs Syndrome.

So I'm not surprised, to hear, while on holiday in France with English friends, as I have been hearing for the past two weeks, how, in their view, McCain has the American Election sewn up; They think that Obama will never overcome the racial prejudice of people who, unlike me, don't live on the East Coast; that the blue collar voters just won't go for a 47-year-old black guy who speaks like a rockstar but is thin on experience and substance.

Well, thank God, an American just joined us here on the Riviera. "You must be mad" he told our group. "There is going to be an Obama landslide in November."

I inhaled.

I've been saying this for fourteen days -- and no, it's not because I'm drunk on the rhetoric of the Democratic convention. I recognize scripted political speeches for what they are.

But unless you are American or you have lived there for a long time (for me, it's been eleven years) it is almost impossible to describe the disenchantment we feel about the George W. Bush era. He and his cronies have brought us to our knees, not just economically but spiritually. It wouldn't matter who stood to follow Bush, I don't think any Republican stands a chance in November.

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I am prepared to wager that the polls have gotten the closeness of this race wrong (they've been wrong before) and that, Palin or no Palin, this is Obama's moment.

Before 9/11 Americans did not fear in the way we fear now: we fear for our economy, for our safety, we worry who we can trust.

This wasn't how things were when I arrived here.

In 1997 America was a country, in which, as Joe Biden put it so evocatively last week, people believed if they worked hard enough they could achieve anything. They certainly believed that if they worked hard enough they could tell their children "it's going to be ok."

I may not be American, but I grew up with parents who told me that anything was achievable if you just tried hard enough. So, like everyone around me, I have felt the change in the air of late, seen the worried brows reflect the dire economy and never felt so disappointed.

I've watched the bewilderment as people read the newspapers and learn we invaded the wrong country; seen the concern when we learn that, as Barack Obama put it, Osama bin Laden is still alive despite billions spent on a war with a country he's not even in.

So, now, no matter how hard I work, I can't tell my sons "It's going to be ok."

This is why, when Obama says he stands for hope, many people (myself included) do not hear this as political rhetoric. For them, and for me, it is real.

What isn't real is John McCain's beauty pageant appointment of Sarah Palin. This is the same McCain who recently recommended his wife appear in a topless beauty contest. So Palin's appointment is just transparent chess-playing politics. And in the long-term I don't think it's going to work. Why?

Because as Barack Obama pointed out last Thursday, it wasn't so much his achievements that took him to the Democratic presidential candidacy, but the American voters, who have signaled they are ready for a change. They'll still be around in November, and with Hillary Clinton, now gracefully out of contention, there's 18 million more of them.

Vicky Ward is a Contributing Editor to Vanity Fair

This article was originally published, in slightly different form, by the London Evening Standard.

Comments

[standard]

Sadly, our Electoral College system operates nothing at all like your parliamentary systems in Europe (including the U.K.). A majority of our popular vote doesn't decide our Presidential races. If the Democrats win in only one or two states more than Kerry did in '04 (and no state with a great deal of electoral votes is likely to switch sides this time), McCain can, in fact, win the election.

When Obama says he stands for hope, it's real. Equally real, however, is that lopsided majorities in most states, including the electoral-vote rich states of Texas, Ohio and Florida, stand for personal greed: ever lower taxes on the very richest Americans, and any who suffer as a result be damned.

Obama's resume isn't a real issue, as the nomination of Sarah Palin proves. If you're a progressive Democrat, your level of experience can never be high enough to suit the conservatives. If you disbelieve in evolution, own lots of guns and favor massive tax relief for the rich , no level of inexperience is too low for them. McCain's selection of Palin was cynical, not remotely brilliant. Selecting Michael Palin, were he eligible, would have been the superior act.

If Obama can win in Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado plus all the states in which Kerry won, he'll be elected. If not, brace yourselves for a cocky, belligerent and insolvent America such as you've never dreamed of in your worst nightmares. I only wish it were otherwise.

[customgreen]

Have no fear. It's not about the popular vote as much as it is about the electoral vote. Obama and Biden are a force and have the states they need already. California, New York, New Jersey, Illinios, Michigan (yep Michigan) Mass, Delaware, and a few others. The ones likely to go to the Dems...Carolinas, Texas, Ohio, Penn, Indianna, Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona. It's going to be a landslide. You could probably make a case for Texas. Florida will go Republican (way to many racists down here) Obama is extremely smart, Joe Biden is extremely smart, and they have the best organization going. They ar working the hardest and they have more volunteers who are more dedicated.

[boycottrightwingthings]

Vicky, Obama is 47, NOT 44. Palin is 44. PLEASE, don't make our guy younger than he is, thank you! I also agree: Obama will win in a landslide. Especially after McCain's poor judgement in picking Palin. I was just saying that she is going to be an embarassment, and then the news about her pregnant teen daughter came out almost immediately afterwards. We don't need scandals and distractions, we need focus on the issues that are important to the MAJORITY of Americans.
Obama-Biden 08'

[lw1899]

While I believe this could be a close race, I too, think it will be an Obama landslide. Polls can be misleading as we've seen in past elections. Surveying a few thousand people doesn't take into account the countless thousands galvanized by the obvious need for a new direction in this country, and are energized by Obama's message.

The 80,000+ audience who heard Obama's acceptance speech in Denver, and the 40,000,000+ who watched it on TV may be more indicative of the current zeitgeist. Can the RNC can possibly match that, with or without Hurricane Gustav?

I doubt it.

[realpolitic]

"...I grew up with parents who told me that anything was achievable if you just tried hard enough." Or if you did not try at all and coasted through life like George Bush. After eight years of Bush, if America elects another Republican I am completely giving up on following politics and current events. If America has not experienced enough pain after the Bush regime then it must be a completely different country than I ever thought. I will spend the rest of my days mumbling to myself.

[wsblake]

Why McCain will win - 1. Americans still go for that claptrap that the GOP is better on national security- and we have been proving ourselves nothing but cowards since9-11 the way we have gladly given in to Bush-Cheney. 2. The MSM will fawn and fall over each other to present McCain in a good light. 3. and conversely, that same corporate media will do its best to slime Obama. It'll be close but it will be McCain-

[JackKennedy]

You forgot to mention that She has more executive experience compared to Barack Hussein Obama.
B. Hussein Obama - President of the United States of America - very Un-American.

[Rmtns]

I'm blue collar, live in rural Western Colorado, and I am,and have been 100% a supporter of Barack Obama, since he announced his candidacy.
I'm caucasian, always lived in rural America, and a hunting, fishing and outdoor loving, and from the bluest of blue collar family roots. If I am a supporter (as unlikely as it would seem if you listen to the media), perhaps there are many more like me out there in the woodwork.
I am heartily tired of Republicans telling me that I should support them as small government, tax cutting, and America Firsters, when in my experience, they have spent more, created a larger government, and destroyed the economy in their tenure of office. I now earn less than I did in the 1980's, even not accounting for inflation. I am at the top level of my profession, and I cannot afford medical insurance and will not be able to until I am eligable for Medicare. These are my issues, and I could care less about the sex or race of the President of the US. I want integrity and the drive to improve the situation that I find my country. I do not trust the Republican Party to attain these goals.

[ShanniC]

I think that Americans have reached a point where enough is enough. We are sick and tired of being sick and tired. We want drastic new change and we are unwilling to vote for a man who is not only going to regurgitate the policies of the previous administratio ad nauseum, he has no qualms in telling us this to our faces. I don't take the polls that seriously for one fundamental reason. For all the naysayers contending that Barack Obama does not have a chance because he is too young, experienced, and black-- look at his performance in Republican strongholds that haven't voted for a Democrat in years.... He is leading or tied! What does that tell us?

Moreover, with the selection of Palin as Vice President, this election is a done deal. A woman with bare bones experience, so drastically against the cause of woman's rights has no chance of gaining the majority of Hillary supporters. I used to think the race would be close with maybe an Obama win of 275 or so. Now it is clear to me that the race will be by a much larger margin. Perhaps 330 electoral votes in Obama's side.

[djarvis]

I agree that most of the 18 million who supported Hillary will not support McCain/Palin. I think that after they examine Palin's positions - pro-life, even in cases of rape or incest, global warming denier, continuation of the war in Iraq, and against affordable health care for all - they will realize that Palin is so NOT Hillary Clinton that it's not right to support her JUST because she's a woman. One other thing - Obama is 47, not 44 - he may not have executive experience but he has much more foreign policy experience than Palin (nuclear non-proliferation bill, two trips to Iraq, served on Senate Foreign Relations committee). Mrs. Palin said she doesn't know much about the Iraq war and doesn't even know what the VP does.

[humanbeinghuman]

Vicky, I do hope that you"re right but, I fear that the GOP is going to steal the election just as they did the last two. I had really hoped that we could get the United Nations to make sure everything was "clean" as they do in other countries. I feel, at this point, that this is all just theater hyped by the media so that they can sell soap. I know that I must sound very cynical but, I'm actually a fairly positive person, just twice burned- three times shy. Hopefully, this time Obama will fight and fight and fight and not fold as Gore did in 2000 and Kerry did in 2004.

[MadOzbo]

From your article to the Voter's mind...I SO hope you are right on this one!

[amp27]

I've been thinking that these polls are rigged. I can't believe the numbers, that McCain is getting 48% when Bush's approval rating is 30%. So many military families want us out of Iraq. I fear they are trying to set up the numbers so a computer selection can be pulled off, again.

[RepublicanBrain]

And I suppose a random American citizen you've met on the Riviera is an experienced enough political analyst and can accurately predict the future.

*sigh* If things were a "landslide" or had no chance, Obama wouldn't be wasting his time campaigning, wouldn't he. At least, he wouldn't be doing it anymore. He's the selected representative, no?

Obama is just rhetoric, he's always been just rhetoric. The reason you, and his supporters, do not view it as such is because he is saying exactly what you want. He blames Bush for the economy, which is a misnomer: Economics is cyclic, and any blame with it rests not on Republicans, but on the practices of the common person. You say it is real, but that is your imagination, not what Obama actually is. People have such a hard time distancing the two when it comes to Obama, it seems.

[SaltySaltillo]

Vicky,

I don't think you know Americans as well as you think. This is a very tight race - not because of national polls, which at this point are meaningless - but because of the way the electoral vote map plays out. It all comes down to 20 or 30 electoral votes in either direction. And at this point, it looks like it could go either way in states like VA, CO, MI, PA, FL, NV, and OH. That is not good news for McCain but it is not good news for Obama either.