iPhone app iPad app Android phone app Android tablet app More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Warren Mosler

GET UPDATES FROM Warren Mosler
 

Demand Leakages: The 800lb Economist in the Room

Posted: 07/05/2012 5:06 pm

I can't say I've seen anyone in the deficit debates talking about the demand leakages. Not a mention in the mainstream press, financial news media, or any of the thousands of economic reports? That's like discussing the right horsepower for a truck or an airplane without any consideration of the weight of the vehicle.

Demand leakages are unspent income. For a given currency, if any agent doesn't spend his income, some other agent has to spend more than his income, or that much output doesn't get sold. So if the non government sectors collectively don't spend all of their income, it's up to government to make sure its income is less than its spending, or that much output doesn't get sold. This translates into what's commonly called the 'output gap,' which is largely a sanitized way of saying unemployment.

And with the private sector necessarily pro cyclical, the (whopping) private sector spending gap in this economy can only be filled with by government via either a (whopping) tax cut and/or spending increase (depending on one's politics).

So wherefore the 'demand leakages?' The lion's share are due to tax advantages for not spending your income, including pension contributions, IRA's and all kinds of corporate reserves. Then there's foreign hoards accumulated to support foreign exporters. And it all should be a very good thing -- all of that net unspent income means that for a given size government, and a given non government rate of credit expansion, our taxes can be that much lower. Personally, I'd rather have a tax cut than a policy to get other people to spend their unspent income or borrow more. But that's just me...

And then there's the fear mongering about the likes of the $200 trillion present value of United States government unfunded liabilities, without even a hint of the present value of all demand leakages -- all of that future income just discussed that will be unspent as it's squirreled away in the likes of retirement plans, corporate reserves and foreign central banks.

If history is any guide, the demand leakages will probably continue to outstrip even the so called 'runaway spending of our irresponsible government,' just as they've always done in the past, as evidenced by nearly continuous output gaps/excess unemployment.

Worse, every mainstream economist has learned that it's the demand leakages that create the 'need' for government deficits, but somehow they fail to even mention it, even casually.

If anything, they voice no objections to the popular misconception (and another myth for another discussion) that we need more savings to have funds for investment, thereby tacitly supporting the call for higher levels of demand leaks, and consequently calling for the need for even higher levels of government deficit spending, which they also deem a 'bad thing.'

 
 
 

Follow Warren Mosler on Twitter: www.twitter.com/wbmosler

FOLLOW BUSINESS
 
 
  • Comments
  • 12
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Recency  | 
Popularity
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
11:15 PM on 07/08/2012
Demographics may have something to do with the levels of savings in retirement plans. With the Baby Boomer heading into retirement, one would expect, Nye, HOPE they are at their highest level of retirement savings. I will check out the book.
10:59 PM on 07/06/2012
You and Dr. Bill Mitchell need to write pieces together here. Pronto.
12:26 PM on 07/06/2012
yes, so in other words - we need a much larger government deficit to cover the unspent income - which is being unspent our of fear for the future: fear of unemployment, fear of being unable to afford health care, fear of being unable to make mortgage or student loan payments, etc.
photo
KarmaPatrol
Riverboat Gambler, satellite whisperer. Independe
09:58 AM on 07/06/2012
May bring a fight between Wall St and actual industry. Do retirees spend their 401K's, etc..., enjoying their golden years or buy more Wall St products (annuities, transferring wealth to heirs, etc..)?
08:42 AM on 07/06/2012
Warren, if you're reading this, would you mind explaining the last paragraph.

Are you saying that: "If anything, they voice no objections to the popular misconception ... that we need more savings to have funds for investment, thereby tacitly supporting the call for higher levels of demand leaks (savings), which consequently creates the need for even higher levels of government deficit spending that they then criticize as a 'bad thing'?"
10:56 AM on 07/06/2012
One of the 7 deadly innocent frauds

http://www.moslereconomics.com/?p=8662/

is the idea that we need savings to have funds available for investment.
That's an old myth that refuses to die.
With today's fiat currencies, like the dollar, the causation is the opposite,
loans create deposits, and savings is the accounting record of investment.
06:33 PM on 07/06/2012
Ah. Thanks. I've read the book, which is an eye-opener. Especially Part 3 about Public Purpose. That resonated with me on a deep deep level. It put morality into our financial doings in a way that gave it extraordinary power to advance civilization rather than balkanize it, and increase wealth for everyone not just the few.

That said, I am still one of the minions trying to wrap my head around MMT. I feel like Meryl Streep in "Death Becomes Her" trying to turn my head back around the right way. At the moment my ears are at 11 o'clock, and my hands are straining.

Appreciate your articles. Would ask that you add more explanation of the reason for key ideas. In following your work, you seem reluctant to over-explain or insult people's intelligence by over-explaing. A little less humility is OK.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
letsgetitdone
08:21 PM on 07/05/2012
Hi Warren, Thanks for calling attention to demand leakages and their significance. But it would have been helpful to have some numbers about the size of demand leakages over the past years versus the size of Government deficits we set against them, and then to discuss how that relates to continuing high levels of unemployment.
10:57 AM on 07/06/2012
Let's just say for me it's no coincidence that the $15+ trillion in our pension funds is about the same as what we call our 'national debt'

;)
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
letsgetitdone
01:12 PM on 07/06/2012
Nice reply, but Government deficit spending, even as big as it's been according to some people, hasn't been nearly big enough to compensate for that demand leakage, has it? And isn't that really the bottom line point here.