Belichick Made the Right Call

Bill Belichick is one of my least favorite people in sports. I love the Colts and do not like the Patriots. The announcers were unanimous in saying the Patriots were crazy to go for it on 4th down in the Colts-Patriots game. I hate to say it, but I think Belichick's move might have made sense.

Looking back at the last two years passing plays on 4th down and less than two yards to go have succeeded around 45% of the time. With Brady this chance is probably higher than 45%. Let SHORT= chance Colts score TD from the Pats 30 and LONG = chance Colts score TD after a punt. Assume that if Patriots get a first down Colts cannot win. Then Patriots should go for it if 0.45 + 0.55*(1-SHORT) > (1-LONG).

The following table computes the Pats' chance of winning if they go for it, minus Pats chance of winning if they punt based on different values of SHORT and LONG. A positive number means Patriots should have gone for it. Note that if Colts have a greater than 50% chance of scoring a TD after the punt, then Belichick made the right move. With Peyton Manning at the helm I would say the Colts had at least a 50% chance of scoring a TD from, say, 70 yards.

 

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Comments

[simontherm]

yeah, great point. That's why you're a WRITER.

Trading in my cherished "18-1" t-shirt for a new "4th and 2"

cheater's proof!

thanks for making my day, Bill, while totally dissing your defense.

[alexmayhave202]

Brilliant. It was practice for a do-or-die playoff situation. It's called long-term thinking. You use short-term strategies to achieve long-term success. They will tweak the play and get it right the next time. Brilliant.

[spilkus]

Here's the flaw in your model.
You can see it in the headline to this article. "Belichick Made the Right Call." It is obvious that he made the wrong call because the Pats lost. Had he made the right call the Pats would have the W.
Furthermore, I will explain the reason that the call was wrong. Belichick made the call out of fear of Manning. Not in confidence of his defence or in confidence in Brady.
I've never really seen him do it before but he made the call of a loser.

[ScottCandage1]

I think you are missing a few variables, Professor. Your analysis works perfectly for an analysis of winning one game. However, this game is one game in a season. You fail to factor how this decision affects the Patriots chances of getting into the playoffs, their chances of getting a bye in the playoffs, and of getting home field advantage in the playoffs (whether ultimately or for the first game). This decision put all of that at risk. Belichick himself noted in pre-game interviews that a loss would most likely mean that the Pats wouldn't get home field advantage against the Colts. With the Colts having a pass-heavy offense, being in their cozy dome throughout January gives them an advantage (as opposed to having to play in typically freezing Foxboro in mid-January). This is what Belichick risked by going for it.

[jimsnaza]

Professor Winston,

As I had taken your Sports Statistics class two years ago, I thought of you as this play unfolded. I was against the call, but knowing the math made me wish I could tell Al Michaels as he was announcing the game. However, Belicheck's adherence to statistics rather than football allowed him to lose this game (who knows the outcome if they punt). And, it allowed the Patriots to lose the Super Bowl against the Giants when they went for it on 4th & 8 and failed to convert. Unfortunately, statistics only apply if you could run thousands of iterations. We've seen it before with USC vs. Texas on 4th & 2. Momentum is a big variable. Sometimes you just punt the ball, and make the other team make the unlikely drive than make the 50/50 4th down play.

Jim Snaza

[Joshua Wilson]

Wayne,

Here is a different modeling approach that agrees with you:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html

My initial reaction was that it was a horrendous call, but I can't argue with the maths!

I sure wish I would have had the opportunity to take one of your classes when I was at IU.

-A Kelly School of Business grad

[Jason Schechter]

After a near pick 6, the Pats should have realized how dangerous it is to have the ball that close to their own endzone and done what probably 90% of teams do when they are backed up on their own side of the field (with a more than a field goal lead) on 4th and 2 and punt it away. That is showing no confidence in their defense. Who knows maybe they fumble the punt or some other weird thing happens. If you fail to convert, the risk is far more dangerous. If you punt the ball and pin the other team back deep in their own side of the field and they march all the way down and win the game you just tip your hat and give credit to the other team. As a fan, I could live with that more than risking the whole game on one play when my team already has the lead. That is why it was the WRONG call.

[deezus]

I disagree, it was an epic fail.

[bowingagain]

I ain't buying it and I'm a Pat's fan.

[mrkleen]

What is there to "not buy" - it is all there in black and white. He made the right statistical call. Period.

[spilkus]

I said it below but Belichick made the call out of fear. If you are a loser you bet against yourself and hope that something good happens. If you are a winner you put your defence on the field and win the game. What he tried to do was hide his defence from big bad Peyton. Then he exposed them. There was a lot more than the game that they lost at stake. That's what this statistical model fails to take into account.

[FirstGame72]

Wayne,

Please see my comments to Jeff Ma.
Belichick's failure was not that he went for it on fourth down, although in the "good old days" of pro football no coach would ever do that and simply tell himself "I have no choice but to punt." Belichick failed in that his defensive strategy after he didn't get the first down was intellectually inconsistant with his decision to go for it. If he didn't think his defense could hold Manning for 65 yards, he shouldn't have played that way when it turned out to be only 30 yards.
He should have "let the Colts score." Not by embarrassing himself by having defensive players move out of the way, but by blitzing "the house" on every defensive snap. I'm talking seven-eight-nine players blitzing each time. That way either A) You surprise Manning and he makes a mistake he normally would not have or B) Manning throws to an uncovered receiver, who scores with 90 or so seconds left. Leaving more than enough time for Brady to get into field goal range for a winning kick.
Belechick played it at cross purposes and, not surprisingly, it cost him the game.

[Entheo]

i don't care what the stats say; that was a dumb call. punt the ball and put some trust in your D. he's now undermined the entire team's confidence with that single call. dumb.

[WeWon]

It would not have mattered. Peyton would have had TWO minutes to score and he would have !!!!

I agree it was a great call by BB. He is TERRIFIED of Peyton because Peyton "out coaches" him ..LOL

Brilliant Game. Brilliant Peyton ...AGAIN

Bow to the MASTER QB New England

Ohhh yeah!