It's Barack Obama's war now. Here are some key things to know about this curious, complex war -- in which the newest Nobel Peace Prize-winner has placed himself at the helm of the largest military force ever sent to Afghanistan, the historic graveyard of empire -- along with the likely road ahead.
** Along with NATO, we already have as many troops in Afghanistan as the Soviets did in the 1980s. With Obama's newest escalation, we will have more troops than the Soviets had in Afghanistan.
President Barack Obama outlined his new strategy on Afghanistan and Pakistan in this speech from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point.
** The Soviets were winning their war in Afghanistan. Before we intervened with massive covert funding and weapons. Of course, they were pursuing brutal scorched earth tactics, like those they used so notoriously to put down the persistent revolt in Chechnya. Even if Obama, who receives the Nobel Peace Prize next week, weren't horrified by such tactics, and I have no doubt he would be, they would ruin his big effort for a rapprochement with the Islamic world, launched successfully with his address six months ago in Cairo.
** The Soviet Afghan War was won with only a handful of Americans in Afghanistan. Defeating the Soviets in Afghanistan -- in effect, making Afghanistan the Soviet Vietnam -- was key to ending the Cold War and bringing down the Soviet Union. There were virtually no Americans on the ground in Afghanistan. Instead, we worked through cutouts, principally the Pakistanis. The goal wasn't to control Afghanistan, a country with no intrinsic strategic significance for America. The goal was to deliver a stinging defeat to America's enemy, the Soviet Union.
Of course, totally ignoring Afghanistan after the defeat of the Soviets and the end of the Cold War created a vacuum which, after years of infighting, was finally filled by a new and even more radical group, the Taliban (fundamentalist religious students). A case of penny-wise, pound-foolish, typical of America's lack of historical perspective.
"The Forgotten War" no more.
** The post-9/11 Afghan War was won with only a few hundred Americans in Afghanistan. A relative handful of Intelligence agents and special forces operators utilized air power and worked with Afghan forces opposed to the ruling Taliban to chase Al Qaeda out of Afghanistan and to bring down the Taliban government when it would not serve up Osama bin Laden, who had finally established his base there after being chased out elsewhere. (Bin Laden, incidentally, was not created by the CIA and was completely tangential in the Afghan war against the Soviets, barely setting foot in the country.) The goal was to defeat the enemy which attacked America on 9/11, the cadre of Al Qaeda. The Bush/Cheney Administration didn't want to risk the potential backlash from having large numbers of American troops on foreign soil. Certainly not something they worried much about any time after that.
** The epic fail of Tora Bora echoes very loudly today. We might not be talking much about Al Qaeda, a diminished force, were it not for the incredible failure to capture or kill Osama bin Laden. After 9/11, President Bush vowed to get him, dead or alive. But when it came time to take him, almost exactly eight years ago, in the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan where he was trying to make his way to a new safe haven in Pakistan, it didn't happen. Read the new Senate report on this, and weep. The Bush/Cheney Administration turned down repeated reqests, saying it didn't want a heavy foreign presence on the ground, so he was allowed to slip away.
** Bill Clinton was criticized for failing to destroy the Al Qaeda training and operational bases in Afghanistan with cruise missiles in the late 1990s. Instead, it was said that he should have used special operations forces to wreck the Al Qaeda operation. Notice that no one seriously suggested that he launch a full-scale invasion to accomplish this. It wasn't necessary for the mission. Why we have to control Afghanistan now to stop Al Qaeda from using it as its base of operations is a bit of a mystery, as we can readily smash any such bases in Afghanistan.
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff says President Obama's new surge-and-endgame strategy in Afghanistan will help military forces find a better focus for their mission.
** Barack Obama ran for president on a program of escalating the war in Afghanistan. He was very clear about this. The fact that he is now doing what he said he would do when he ran for president should be no surprise to people who supported him. Or to those who did not.
** The Pakistan quandary looms very large. Of course, being president is more complicated than being candidate for president. Perhaps the biggest complication with regard to Afghanistan is Pakistan. It's the only Islamic nuclear power, knock on wood with regard to Iran. So allowing it to fall into the hands of jihadists would be, as the saying goes, bad. Fortunately, Pakistan has pushed back successfully this year against what had been major Taliban gains around the country, gains which happened as a result of inaction during the Bush/Cheney Administration. But its more remote provinces still provide a safe haven for Afghan Taliban -- in some ways invented by Pakistani intelligence -- and for Al Qaeda.
American escalation in Afghanistan may push more jihadists into Pakistan, risking destabilization, as Pakistan's leaders have pointed out. They are noncommittal so far about the new Obama strategy in Afghanistan. And, though they've pushed back hard against local Taliban threatening their own rule, they haven't been so supportive of efforts against other jihadists. With at least some sort of American exit strategy now in place for Afghanistan, it may occur to the Pakistanis that the Taliban will outlast America in Afghanistan, and end up controlling much if not most of the country. Yet Pakistan can be very helpful with intelligence about the Afghan Taliban, who are likely to infiltrate the Afghan army and police we say we are trying to build up while the present surge lasts.
** Is defeat in Afghanistan inevitable? No. Remember that the Soviets were winning before America lanched its massive covert intervention in Afghanistan. Not that we could pursue the same sort of ruthless tactics.
Here's one early window on the reaction of the Afghan people to Obama's new strategy.
The answer really depends on how you define success. Is it likely that Afghanistan is going to be built into a truly functioning nation-state any time soon? No. Are we going to stick around for decades to make that happen? No. Is it likely we can train large numbers of illiterate recruits (Afghanistan's literacy rate is 10%) into professional security forces? It's very difficult. Can we deny Afghanistan as a base for "The Base," Al Qaeda? Yes. But we've been able to do that for the past eight years, with no escalation necessary. What seems most likely is that friendly forces can continue to control northern Afghanistan, providing basing to chase down Al Qaeda concentrations in Taliban-friendly southern Afghanistan and along the Pakistan border if need be.
** So what happens next in what may well be an extended exercise on the politico/military equivalent of a stairmaster?
Obama gave his big speech at West Point. Which was not one of his best, as he seemed rather nervous and didn't establish a rhetorical rapport with the crowd of cadets and the long military tradition with which he was there to resonate. Still, he got the message across. He will send 30,000 new troops to Afghanistan. When it's all said and done, there will be about 100,000 American troops in Afghanistan. There are over 40,000 troops there from American allies, principally NATO nations. Nearly 10,000 of those troops are British.
He's ordered the generals to have most of the new troops in place in six months, much faster than previously assumed possible.
He wants NATO to provide another 5000 troops. NATO leadership says it will provide 7000 new troops. But that decision won't be taken in terms of actual commitments from NATO nations till an international conference on Afghanistan at the end of next month in London.
Obama plans to protect big population areas while heavily degrading Taliban forces and spinning up the training of Afghan forces.
And Obama wants to withdraw most American troops in three years, reiterating that he'll start withdrawing troops in the middle of 2011. But how quickly those troops are withdrawn is up in the air.
The plan is predicated on pushing back the Taliban, which the military says presently control a third of the provinces, to provide a space for a rapid build-up of Afghan security forces.
A lot of things have to go right for this very ambitious plan, which sounds a great deal like Vietnamization, which worked wonders for Richard Nixon, to work. But you can bet that Obama wants most American troops out of Afghanistan by the time of his re-election.
You can check things during the day on my site, New West Notes ... www.newwestnotes.com.
Oh, really? North Vietnam quickly overran South Vietnam soon after they no longer had US forces to protect them. The same result could have been achieved with a "precipitous withdrawal" in 1969, saving a million or two Vietnamese and Khmer lives and about 25,000 Americans.
Why not negotiate with the Taliban and other Afghan insurgent groups? The interests of the Taliban and al Qaeda have never been identical, and those differences continue to grow.
http://csis.org/blog/mullah-omar-and-al-qaida-things-fall-apart
We pursue the same policies repeatedly, achieving the same results -- destabilization of formerly stable governments like Cambodia and now Pakistan, and continued warfare. If the real purposes of our policies were truly what we proclaim, this would fit one definition of insanity. But those aren't the real goals. They may be the goals of a few individuals, perhaps even POTUS, but they are not the unstated institutional goals. The institutional goals have nothing to do with stabilization, human rights or even world hegemony and control of resources. The actual institutional imperatives -- profit for military suppliers and contractors, promotion of both military and civilian careers, pork for politicians -- all demand continued instability and permanent warfare. Anyone who advocates a different policy is marginalized. How many even today remember Matt Hoh's name? Did he meet with Obama? Highly doubtful. Karl Eikenberry has not yet resigned or been replaced, but he certainly was not listened to.
Granted, you said Obama's speech doesn't parse well, but I detected very little criticism of the policy itself and you seem to accept the need to "fight terrorism" through military means rather than good police and intelligence work. I thought you were just a little disappointed with the speech.
Maybe he doesn’t believe that there are moderate elements of the Taliban or maybe he feels this discussion is better left to a closed session. Given the state of affairs of the media, the latter is completely understandable.
But, his testimony further implied that the civilian part of the new strategy has little to do with political reconciliation through devolution of power to the provincial and district levels and a lot to do with propping up a strong central government and national Afghan security force, both of which have little reasonable prospect of gaining the trust of the Afghan people or of exercising authority throughout even the portion of the country that is presumably most amenable to that sort of approach.
If this is true, then it doesn’t bode well for success in Afghanistan, any way you choose to define it.
...continued...
I'm just lamenting the fact that a global leader in the process of restoring its global leadership role might reflect on the opportunity being presented here to use a little persuation to grease the path towards political reconciliation in Afghanistan and not just wait for it to fall into place under the circumstances that it deems appropriate.
I have high hopes for this administration, ya know.
On the brighter side, it became evident during this hearing that Senator McCain does indeed understand what the July 2011 deadline is all about even if the hapless media still do not. And, although he clearly still disagrees with it, he has at least dropped the blatant disingenuousness that was so unbecoming...and reminiscent of his presidential campaign.
;-)
And, I don’t think we’ll be hearing too much more from McCain about his concerns surrounding the July 2011 date and it being a firm date for beginning withdrawal of US troops...among others. Certainly not since General McChrystal implied in this same hearing that anyone who intimates that the July 2011 date is a sign of weakening US resolve and commitment to the mission is only betraying their own ignorance and/or willingness to employ tools of propaganda to cast dispersion on this new strategy.
No, I think that shut McCain up pretty good on that specific issue, at least.
(1) A most famous phrase used in the quiz show "Mastermind" is "I've started so I'll finish." (Referring to the question being read when the end of time buzzer sounds, which the contestant is allowed to hear and answer.)
(2) Once, when travelling in rural Yorkshire, I asked a local how to get to Leeds. "Oh, I wouldn't start from here!" came the reply.
Both are metaphors for the position Obama finds himself in regarding Afganistan. We started it so we cannot now just abandon this war without massive negative consequences in the region. With all the options on the table I am sure he wished the "don't start from here" were possible, i.e. not having to pick up the pieces of a totally botched war from the Cheney / Bush years.
I am totally torn apart as to what I think is the right thing to do. I don't think America playing self appointed "international policeman" is the answer to anything but just pulling out now and hang the consequences is not either.
Anyway, I'm just commiserating...because, according to another saying I know well, misery loves company. :)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/10/AR2009111019644.html
"According to new statistics released by the Pentagon, with Barack Obama as commander in chief, there has been a 23% increase in the number of “Private Security Contractors” working for the Department of Defense in Iraq in the second quarter of 2009 and a 29% increase in Afghanistan, which “correlates to the build up of forces” in the country."
http://rebelreports.com/post/116277092/obama-has-250-000-contractors-in-iraq-and-afghan
When Obama talks about reducing the number of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, he means INCREASING the number of mercenaries doing the work that US troops had been doing.
The Guardian had a link to historical and cultural data that might be of interest to some : http://realafghanhistory.webs.com/afghanistantimeline.htm
>>>> As Jamal Dajani, the commentator above, has underlined, nuclear weaponized Pakistan could
(Check out my blog at www.jedword.com)
>>>>>>>> "God" hunting to NATO troops.
To refer to Afganistan as a nation is a euphemism. This region of the world is governed by the regional 'leaders' who think nothing of working for the guy with the bigest purse. If our government would realize this and deal with these people on the level they are accustomed to we could easily gain the institurion of a peaceful and effective protector of 'our' new pipelines.
As to the issue of those beautiful poppy fields, I say let them grow poppies and supply the world with an inexpensive source of opiate pain killing medicinals.
This country is in dire need of everything from roads, bridges, jobs, people back into there homes because out of work and could not pay Taxes, or bought the snake oil wall street offered no money no credit just sign up and we will put you in a house of your dreams then take it back, all of it being the fault of everyone except Wall Street, they said we knew better so did Wall street, who bailed them out the good old taxpayers.
Sen. McCain saying we have to win this War, history shows how we die for the want of a few warrager's Sen McCain we didn't win in Korea or Vietnam, maybe we ought go back and re-fight those we couldn't win. Did wall street swallow there screw up no we did, maybe Sen. we should re-fight that shaft the American taxpayer got, that all public representatives servants or whatever, demanded we pay the bill.
>>>> I can see eons into the sky
Agreed. If success in Afghanistan is based on numbers alone then sure I suppose that we may one day be able to chalk it up as an overall victory. We can certainly hope to provide some level of stability for today and for the immediate future. However one must also consider the fact that conflict has been ingrained in the tribes of Afghanistan and several of the peoples across the entire region since before the conquest of Muhammad. This is a type of tenacity that be barely be understood much less conquered.
>If success in Afghanistan is based on numbers alone then sure I suppose that we may one day be able to chalk it up as an overall victory.
THAT IT IS NOT OBAMA'S WAR!! IT'S AMERICA'S WAR THANKS TO REPUBLICANS AND THEIR ATTEMPT TO FUNNEL THE TREASURY INTO THEIR MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX POCKETS!!!
I'm done now.
When a candidate for POTUS announces he wants to attack one of our nuclear-armed ALLIES, the liberal press should have been first to start howling.
Instead, the slobbering love affair continued unabated.