Four On The Floor: Mac TV

John McCain's snarky "Celeb" TV attack ad, released July 30th.

So why did lovable old John McCain suddenly put out FOUR negative TV ads in less than two weeks?

After the latest (and rather good) version of his positive biographical spot went wide just three weeks ago?

I'll lay out the sequence of events and reasons at each juncture.

Are new campaign director Steve Schmidt and company crazy like foxes?

Or just crazy?

Well, here's the deal. Schmidt and company may be setting themselves up for a big backlash. But in the short term, their plan has worked.

What's the plan? As I said earlier in the week, they were deathly afraid -- not the way macho guys would put it, to be sure -- of going into the Olympics with Barack Obama having a steady and sizable lead. Right now, Obama doesn't have that.

Which means that McCain has survived the week after Obama's huge foreign tour -- a triumph for Obama on many levels -- and Obama's follow-up this week on domestic economic concerns, without losing contact with the frontrunner.

John McCain's attack ad on "Troop Funding," released July 18th.

The fear amongst Republicans is that once Obama gets a big lead on McCain, he won't let go, even with more of the Wright Stuff and Bittergate and the like coming down the pike. Kind of like Ronald Reagan. This is the year for a change election, with nearly 80% of voters saying America is on the wrong track and most connecting McCain -- who in many respects is a fairly doctrinaire conservative, despite his reputation -- with the extraordinarily unpopular President Bush.

So let's run through the sequence of events, which explains what the McCain campaign is really up to and why with this sudden and dramatic negative shift, typified by 4 straight negative TV ads in 13 days. Which may be called the "Four on the Floor."

For months, John McCain has been running mostly positive TV ads, usually playing up, one way or another, his famous service in the Navy. Some ads have worked better than others, and the latest and more effective version of this advertising was released in early July.

But although it was backed up with heavy spending on broadcast TV in 11 battleground states and national cable TV, the ad failed to move numbers.

In this bad year for Republicans, McCain has been essentially a candidate of biography. But the biography is not strong enough to overcome another candidacy of biography, that of Obama, who has become an increasing target of personal acrimony from the Mac campaign, which supposed that his war hero background would trump any personal story the Democrats could muster.

New McCain campaign director Steve Schmidt, who I know very well and who ran uber-celeb Arnold Schwarzenegger's landslide re-election campaign as California governor, and the Bush-Cheney 2004 war room before that, took over operational control of the campaign in early July. The new bio spot was a result of his new role.

But it simply didn't work, other than to reinforce McCain's standing amongst those who were already for him.

A change was clearly in order, especially with Obama embarking upon an unprecedented foreign tour. If Obama got a big lead coming out of his star turn in the Middle East and Europe, he could well, as one McCain advisor put it, "float beyond our reach."

Especially with the Olympics on tap, followed immediately by what looks to be a spectacular Democratic National Convention in Denver, heart of the Mountain West which Obama is poised to take away from the Republicans.

Team McCain decided not to let that happen. No matter how unpretty a spectacle it was for them.

Beginning July 18th, every TV ad produced by the McCain campaign has been a hit spot on Obama. This, of course, coincides with the beginning of Obama's much ballyhooed tour of the Middle East and Europe. Which the McCain campaign, ironically, goaded him into with their Iraq watch at the Republican National Committee. Be careful what you wish for.

Why the big attack mode for McCain, a pol long identified with positive campaigning?

The issue constellation is not favorable to McCain. To say the least.

Beyond that, there is a fundamental strategic conundrum for McCain, which I wrote about on June 6th. McCain has to hold onto a conservative base, which is increasingly out of phase with the mainstream of America, if he is to have a chance at winning in a bad year for Republicans. Those are simple numbers. He also has to win over enough independents for victory. And he has to raise some big money, pushed through the Republican Party, for which he is reliant on President Bush.

Unlike Schmidt's other client, Arnold Schwarzenegger, McCain does not have the personal wealth or fundraising prowess to fundamentally detach himself from Bush. So he's stuck.

If McCain runs a positive campaign against Obama, in this year, he almost certainly loses.

John McCain's attack ad "Pump," released July 24th.

As a result, the famed Straight Talk Express is now the Tough Talk Express.

What is Team McCain out to do with Obama?

Position him as "a selfish celebrity who's not like us."

With this clear strategic imperative, McCain succeeded in jamming up Obama for most of this week. Obama has been forced to respond to a flurry of hit spots, including most recently an essentially silly ad, the "Celeb" ad above -- silly to most of the country, if not to the three states McCain is most concerned with -- instead of concentrating his fire on the economy. Which is an issue area where McCain is, not to put too fine a point on it, weak.

This is not what Obama wanted to be doing in the week after the most spectacular week of his campaign, and there are now little more than three months left in the campaign.

What are the three states McCain is most concerned with? Well, they are states in which he has been consistently outspending Obama on the air, far from the coasts: Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

As it happens, Obama played somewhat into Team McCain's hands this week.

Obama should have descended from the Olympian heights he reached in Berlin at the beginning of the week. Instead he began with a high-level meeting with elite economic advisors in Washington , rather than a house meeting in Missouri.

After this week, Obama has two hopes to stay on track.

That the McCain crew has over-reached in their inaccuracy, pique and snarkiness toward him.

John McCain's now notorious attack ad "Troops," released on July 26th.

And that he re-tools his approach.

Meanwhile, knowing that they could be criticized in the press for going all-negative -- and with ads that are, let's say, factually challenged -- Team McCain set the table last week by attacking the press for its supposed pro-Obama bias. The purpose being a brushback pitch, hoping to intimidate the press into criticizing Obama and going easy on McCain.

The truth is that both candidates have had the press explain away various misstatements and outright gaffes. If anyone has gotten the better break on that score, it's actually McCain.

In reality, we've had two candidates who are press favorites. McCain's gone so far as to refer to the press as "my base." And both candidates have a touch of the prima donna about them.

Now, in my view, the attacks from Team McCain on the "celebrity" front are not very serious. I would enjoy seeing them tried in my state of California.

Take this Rick Davis missive: "Only a celebrity of Barack Obama's magnitude could attract 200,000 fans in Berlin who gathered for the mere opportunity to be in his presence. These are not supporters or even voters, but fans fawning over The One. Only celebrities like Barack Obama go to the gym three times a day, demand "MET-RX chocolate roasted-peanut protein bars and bottles of a hard-to-find organic brew -- Black Forest Berry Honest Tea" and worry about the price of arugula."

Or this line from a Schmidt conference call: "Do the American people want to elect the world's biggest celebrity or do they want to elect an American hero?"

An intriguing question, given that Schmidt was the campaign manager for Arnold Schwarzenegger. Who really might be "the world's biggest celebrity."

And who is also McCain's most famous backer, though the California governor parts company with McCain on oil policy and wife Maria Shriver famously endorsed Obama during the primary. Schwarzenegger's backing for McCain in the California primary knocked principal rival Mitt Romney out of the Republican race and effectively delivered the nomination to McCain.

In another irony, McCain himself has long pursued celebrity status.

The truth is that McCain has been a celebrity far longer than Obama. He is a longtime personal friend of Warren Beatty and Annette Bening, who've frequently visited him at his "cabin" in Sedona, Arizona. He's hosted Saturday Night Live and made many appearances on late night talk shows and comedy shows.

Here is the Vietnam War hero's IMDB (Internet Movie DataBase) page.

And as for the elitist trope the McCain crew is intent on latching on to Obama's throat, here is an interesting fact.

The Orange County Register, a right-wing newspaper, in late June, asked McCain about the price of gasoline. You know, that crisis he goes on about, for which his solution is more offshore oil drilling, notwithstanding the fact that it would take a great many years before there would be any impact.

OC Register: When was the last time you pumped your own gas and how much did it cost?

McCain: Oh, I don't remember. Now there's Secret Service protection. But I've done it for many, many years. I don't recall and frankly, I don't see how it matters. I've had hundreds and hundreds of town hall meetings, many as short a time ago as yesterday. I communicate with the people and they communicate with me very effectively.

The fact is that McCain only got Secret Service protection a few months ago.

In any event, it's not hard to see how much gas costs. All you have to do is look out your window as you drive by the plethora of gas stations on any route. Or, in the senator's case, are driven by those stations by staff.

Obama likes arugula.

McCain didn't know how much gasoline costs.

Fellow elitists of the world, unite!

In the meantime, there are real issues at play in this election.

Time to get to them.

Comments

[SILVANUS]

GOP plays to the dumbest, and they lap it up like they do Garth Brooks and their kindergarten versions of divinity (usually reserved for 2 hrs. on Sunday, and that's it).

Obama better get kicking and punching.

[BottomLine2008]

I like Garth Brooks.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Garth Brooks is pretty popular amongst some folks who may well vote Democratic. He's not exactly a right-winger.

[BottomLine2008]

The real right-wingers think Garth is a left-winger!

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

He does need to step it up.

[drd1044]

Obama's campaign ran a brilliant strategic and tactical campaign in the primaries, focusing on the caucus and red states. They did an incredible job overseas. But in my opinion ( and I was director of advertising for a Fortune 50 company), they are doing an awful job in advertising. They don't show strongly enough McCain's flip-flops. non-compos mentis attacks, etc. The only ad I have seen that was effective was the Planned Parenthood one about McCain either forgetting how he had voted or refusing to take a position on giving women birth control through insurance. The low information voters still rely on mass media. Even if Obama uses "non-ads" like the Moses one against him, his campaign should have a strong one every day or frequently that will be covered by the press.

[BottomLine2008]

Obama does good positive ads. You're knocking him for not doing negative ads.

There is still time. Plenty of ammo provided on McCain by McCain.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Moses isn't an ad, it's a web video.

[BottomLine2008]

It's too long to be a TV ad.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

The negative responses can and should be sharper.

[ARTIST50]

The Republicans play to the dumbest part of our population and what gets me is they actually listen! These are the stupidest commericals I've ever seen for a presidential race and people are being influenced by them. If we vote in McCain, we deserve what we get. But, I fear for my grandchildren. How low can we go?

[BottomLine2008]

Blaming voters is never a good idea.

[rwhiteside]

It may not accomplish much, but in this case, it's true.

We are a stupid silly people, if these stupid silly ads deliver the election to McSame.

[kburlz]

Obama got $6.8 million in donations after sending an e-mail about the negative attacks. This year there's a referee on these tactics. 15 yard penalty on Mccain.

[BottomLine2008]

That's great news about the money! Now Obama can use it to hit McCain.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

If you can raise cred questions, and big money, it's pretty good.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I'm sure they knew there would be some backlash.

In the meantime, they're happy to have prevented Obama from opening it up after the big trip.

[BottomLine2008]

I think McCain hurt his credbility with these tactics.

[Budokan]

They're neither crazy or sly. Repugs don't know how to do anything other than run on fear, hate and racism. They do it because THAT'S WHO THEY ARE. Period.

Period.

[Mitchell4A]

The McCain people know what's coming....that can't run far enough or fast enough away from the economy and Bush. This week's attack is a gambit with limited life. Wait till after the conventions. Wait until McCain actually has to say something about the economy, etc.

A Dozen Reasons Why McCain Won’t Win: Money-Back Guarantee”
http://msa4.wordpress.com/

[BottomLine2008]

I hope you're right.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Their strategic imperative was to trip up Obama's surge coming out of his big trip.

[BottomLine2008]

It looks like they did that.

[BottomLine2008]

But Obama's trip will end up helping him greatly. People know how well he did.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Well, no, I talked with Schmidt recently and ... they are still attacking.

[JailNeoconVicts]

All very interesting. And unless Obama gets off his high horse and starts punching back like Leonard against Hagler, he might as well just take his TKO and go back to the dressing room. Because McCain is going to throw as many low blows as he can get away with.

[BottomLine2008]

The unions need to get in the game against McCain.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Yes, with the 527s out, they do.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

They're definitely going to have to do a number on McCain.

[BottomLine2008]

There is plenty of time to shoot down McCain -- again, heheh -- for his gross gaffes, incompetencies, flip-flops, conflicts-­of-interes­t, and fealty to Bush.

[Pepper14]

McCain knows that attack ads work, they have for a very long time. This is how the dems got the majority by attacking on a daily basis. If it back fires on him it will just be with voters that aren't going to vote for him anyhow. What he is doing is putting doubt in the minds of voters that haven't really made up their minds. You can trash McCain all you want for this but it seems to be working as I just saw where Obama now only has a 1 point lead after leading by 7 a week ago. He is also losing ground in the swing states. Obama needs to get out of that ivory tower and stop whinning when anyone attacks him because that is the name of the game. Hillary came out swinging in the end and it worked for her but she waited to late and it cost her the nomination. Obama only has himself to blame for a lot of the attacks because he seems to be all over the place on what he believes in. He has changed his mind so many times I am getting dizzy. A all ladies lunch the other day has us all talking politics and what I heard from a lot of the women was Obama speaks very well but he is to vague on the issues.

[nomobull]

now please tell us what mcCain stands for and his idea.s for fixing what ails this country.

[BottomLine2008]

Are you a still complaining Hillary person?

[kburlz]

The reason Obama didn't get in the mud with Hillary is because it was essentially over by April and he didn't want to rasise his negatives. Obama will hit back if (or when) he has to.

[BottomLine2008]

That's right.

[5150]

Why do you beat about the bush?;

Get off your seat begin to push;

Next year won't come 'till this one's through;

Are you so dumb I thought you knew!

About the bush I'm feeling beat;

My bones are old don't smell my feet;

Salute the flag and watch the polls;

They'll vote for me to save their souls.

[BottomLine2008]

Hahah.

[Gdebs]

Can you give us the best compact list of phone #s and email addresses of the people who we should contact to push back against the media bias against Obama. For example, Chris Matthews, Lou Dobbs, Campbell Brown and the owners and producers of this junk?
Something we could print out and use every time we hear this kind of junk.

[BottomLine2008]

Chris Matthews is totally FOR Obama.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Chris Matthews is actually featured in the McCain effort to pain the press as totally pro-Obama.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

That's pretty cute!

[Torus34]

The campaign tactics of Sen. McCain are based on an evaluation of the ability of the American voter to separate fact from fiction and rational discourse from emotional appeal. The ads themselves define the results of that evaluation.

A few minutes spent listening to the call-in enablers of popular radio talk show hosts will confirm that for some American voters, McCain and Co. are right on target.

[Pagon]

The more McCain's advertisements and pronouncements are analyzed, the more likely that their real funcions are obscured.
McCain's ads are doing exactly what they need to do for him to win.
1) Remind everyone, over and over, that Obama is black.
2) Give the closet racists a new "buzz phrase" they can use in polite company, so they can avoid saying, "I'll never vote for a n---er".
Old buzz phrases have to be replaced from time to time, as people come to realize what they really mean. For example: "He's too extreme." is no longer usable.
By the way, I'm a white male.

[BottomLine2008]

If we don't know Obama is black, we ain't paying attention.

I think the McCain ads suck, but they're not racist.

[BottomLine2008]

Well, aren't those conservative talk shows? There aren't that many conservatives to appeal to with these ads.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

For some voters, yes, right on target. For the rest, it's about introducing FUD -- Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.

[Uselessboy]

McCAIN'S NOT TALKING TO US.

These ads are all "Obama = Antichrist" messages to the religious right, who help get out the Republican vote on election day.

They're dog whistling. You can't argue with them or about them because they're not aimed at you.

[SpectCon]

They're just idiocy. Far and away the dumbest and worst week in the history of Presidential politics. The fact that some in the media think this is a good development makes me think a whole lot less of them.

[TheEmptinessOfTruthiness]

That's good, because the media sure don't think much of you (or me...)

[Bozwellian]

(uh. lol, "these" ads taken in and replayed and encouraged by the MSM as THE TOP TOPIC NOW makes you think LESS of the media ? ...need to remember, the Swiftboaters spent approximately $300,000 to GET theirs out, it was MSMS repeated FREE PLAY that gave them NATIONAL, COAST TO COAST "stature" and "audience" !!! It was and remains with MSM , the abiity to HIGHLIGHT the obscure and scurilous remarkings­/events...­Hey, even reconsider the DEAN SCREAM, which took him down and out and WAS OUT OF CONTEXT and brought to all by the MSM .....NOT surprising and most unaware that MSM is held by approx. 5 conglomerates who hold sway over print/air and THEY ARE NOT majority inclined to be LIBERAL...and THEY call the "shots"..ever notice, flick channel to chaneel on air or flick the pages and THE "report/vid clip" is basically the same, sometimes rearranged phrasings or on air INFLECTION with raised eyebrow or voice pitched for emphasis BUT slanted eliberately to "inform" the public of WHERE or WITH WHO they should side/saddle up with or to !!)

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

It was not an especially edifying week ...

[nk007]

Mr McCian's barrage of negative ads are a great disservice to the American people. The country is faced with monumental problems and we as voters deserve answers from the two major candidates on how they plan to tackle these problems. It really doesn't matter who eats arugula or Big Macs. All I am interested in, as a voter, is who will bring an end to the pointless and costly war in Iraq. Who has a better plan to address our economic problems : energy, health care, crumbling infrastructures, home foreclosures, education, the right to privacy and an end to torture. With all due respect to the devout Christians and Jews, this election should not be about Moses because I can't imagine Americans leaving this country in search of the promised land. And, with all due respect to the fans of Britney Spears and Paris Hilton, this election must not about celebrity. We all know that in a democracy, political leaders seek the support of the majority of people. It used to be, when I was young, that large enthusiastic supporters for a candidate was a good thing. But in 2008 a popular political leader is being trashed for being popular. The media love this because it is beneficial to them. But we the voters end up losing, again, because we get caught up in the hyped "non issues" while the real issues are never addressed..

[Mugzi]

Right on target - well put! I hope others see through the smoke screen.

[BottomLine2008]

The thing is, they're working.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Ironically, of course, McCain himself is a celebrity.

It's been key to his rise.

[JenMI]

The bottom line is America buys this crap...more disappointing than the fact that McCain has now stripped himself of his so-called maverick status to reveal an empty suit marching to the orders of Rick Davis.
This is the man who would sell his soul to win an election.

[BottomLine2008]

Rick Davis isn't in charge.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Schmidt, not Davis.

[BottomLine2008]

That's the bottom line. For the moment.

[radmul]

These are the same people that convinced America that a deserter was a hero and an actual hero was a coward. If people think this cant work it is their own lack of knowledge they betray.

[BottomLine2008]

That's true.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Advertising, which I've more than dabbled in, is not necessarily about the truth. It's about what plays.

[Rog49Thomas]

When you can't run on the record (because it's so dismal a failulre) and when you can't run on the issues (because your principles have been reductio ad absurdum), then you run on biography.

And the natural consequence is to tear down the other guy's biography.

Raise just enough doubt so that the voter will vote for you - even if reluctantly and with the other hand holding his nose.

[Uselessboy]

Republicans always tear down Democrats regardless of all other factors.

Almost all the racial code-words they throw at Obama were thrown at ultra white Kerry, Dean and Gore.

Rove 101 says do not merely defeat your opponent, because he might learn and come back again. Your opponent is your enemy, don't beat him, destroy him.

[BottomLine2008]

All they can do is atttack.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

It's called FUD.

Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.

It's one of the oldest maxims of Madison Avenue.

From before even the days of "Mad Men."