Happy Thanksgiving, Mr. President-Elect!

President-elect Barack Obama's Thanksgiving video address. His message of hope on the economic front is being overshadowed by chaotic events halfway round the world.

While Barack Obama promised "a new and brighter day yet to come" in his Thanksgiving address, seen in the video above, an old and darker day yet to leave reminds that events -- and perhaps political fate itself -- can turn on a dime in presidential politics.

As Obama focuses this week on our grave financial and economic crises, one simmering geopolitical crisis -- that between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, both with shaky governments -- is on the edge of flaring into chaos. And another, the question of how to deal with resurgent Russia, has taken on an added dimension with Russian moves this week into Latin America.

For a political operation that prefers to focus on its preferences, it's a sharp reminder to Team Obama that the presidency can be every bit as reactive as it is proactive.

Indian commandos stormed luxury hotels in Mumbai, formerly Bombay, to root out teams of terrorist gunmen.

Here's what's emerging about Mumbai. Several teams of terrorists, perhaps fewer than 30 in number, stormed luxury hotels, a Chabad house, a famous restaurant, and one of the biggest train stations in the world, shooting tourists, business executives, and locals and taking Israeli, American, and British hostages in an operation that is still being mopped up by security forces.

The action took place in the center of Indian commerce, finance, and entertainment (home to Bollywood). Mumbai was previously known, from the British colonial days, as Bombay, one of the world's most storied cities.

More than 125 have been killed, with more than 300 wounded in the attacks, which were carried out simultaneously at as many as 10 sites.

Who's behind it? The emerging scenario is that it is an Islamic jihadist group tied to Pakistan. The ship which brought the attackers has been sourced to Karachi, Pakistan. The e-mail which initially claimed credit for an unknown group has been sourced to Russia, where servers are frequently used for all manner of nefarious activity. Several of the terrorists have been captured, and at least one is reported to be providing information.

Of course, this scenario was almost foreordained, no matter the facts. India's government is shaky. If it is simply a homegrown operation, the government would almost certainly fall. Placing responsibility on its longtime rival Pakistan rallies the country to the government's side.

India and Pakistan have been at very sharp odds since the two were partitioned by the British in the decolonization period following World War II. The disputed region of Kashmir has been a constant flashpoint. The two countries had a near nuclear confrontation in 2001 after Islamic terrorists attacked Indian parliamentarians.

This means that we are on the verge of another major geopolitical crisis, with enormous implications for our already deeply troubled programs in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Happy Thanksgiving, Mr. President-elect.

India's financial sector was sent reeling by the terrorist siege of Mumbai.

The assaults have shocked Indian and global elites. Mumbai, the world's fifth largest metropolitan area, is the financial, commercial, and entertainment capital of India, one of the world's biggest emerging economies. The Taj Mahal Hotel, site of some of the bloodiest fighting, is a central symbol of Mumbai's, and India's, ascendance, the place to go for global elites when visiting India. India's stock exchange, located in Mumbai, was shut down the past two days, but reopened today. Trading volumes are thin, and activity is volatile. Mumbai is a very popular tourist destination, but cruise lines are avoiding it, at least for now.

Virtually all signs are pointing to a major Pakistani connection in the attacks. The new head of Pakistan's dread ISI intelligence service will meet with Indian officials in a show of cooperation designed to fend off a major geopolitical crisis between India and Pakistan.

FBI counterterroism and forensic experts are en route to Mumbai now. They can't operate there without the request of the Indian government.

Meanwhile, other major moves, problematic for the US, have been afoot this week on the geopolitical front, with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev touring Latin American capitals as a squadron of the Russian Navy arrives for its first Caribbean maneuvers since the Soviet days nearly 20 years ago.

Russia, angered by US and NATO moves in its historic sphere of influence, dispatched a naval squadron to the Caribbean and held summits with Latin American nations.

Medvedev met with a variety of presidents in the region, including the heads of Brazil, Venezuela, and Cuba. Oil powers Russia and Venezuela announced a new energy compact. Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez's party just swept 17 of 20 state elections over the weekend.

Russia is clearly making the none too subtle point that it doesn't like the US meddling in its backyard. It's been US policy since the Clinton Administration to encircle Russia, with the Bush Administration working on extending NATO membership up to its borders. That's what gave rise to the Russia-Georgia War a few months ago.

One burden was lessened, at least in the short run, for Obama, when Iraq this week approved the US troop withdrawal plan negotiated by the Bush/Cheney Administration. It's a plan which vastly accelerates the pullback of US forces beyond the wishes of this White House and its neoconservative imagineers.

Had Obama negotiated the Iraq pullback deal, the far right would call it a Munich. Since it's the work of Bush and Cheney, they're calling it victory.

The plan is looked upon favorably by senior figures in Iran, which should tell any neocons seeking to declare victory, not to mention the press covering it, quite a lot. On the other hand, without a status of forces agreement, US forces would be legally obligated to withdraw immediately, as the UN mandate runs out at the end of the year.

So the outgoing White House, once so relentlessly triumphalist, was between a rock and a hard place.

Not a place where the White House to be wants to be.

You can check things out during the day on my site, New West Notes ... www.newwestnotes.com

Comments

[ajax2]

New conflict, no. Obama's not yet. Mr. Chopra has it right. See his interview on CNN.

D.Chopra: "What we have seen in Mumbai has been brewing for a long time, and the war on terrorism and the attack on Iraq compounded the situation...."

[BottomLine2008]

Oh, I don't think we look to New Age philosophers on these things ...

[Saidas]

New Age philosopher? Have you ever listened to him? His philosophies are based in Hindu and Buddhist thought which are older than Greek. He talks in scientific terms far more than he does what you would call New Age.

Did you even listen to his CNN interview? You do know that he is from India, right? There was nothing philosophical about what he said at all. I've been travelling to India for 32 years and what he said is albsolutely correct. Have you been there? Do you follow news there? Have you listened to Chopra speak of Quantum Mechanics? I didn't think so.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

It's definitely a new crisis. And Obama is on it now.

[fem56]

Obama: Enjoy the next few weeks!!

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Did you see Bush moaning about how he got it wrong in Iraq?

[iyamchazz]

What just happened in Mumbai is an example of the futility of the so called war on terror.
These 15 little boys, in two days, killed nearly 200 people and injured over 350. I call them
little boys because I'm 60. They took pleasure in committing murder and smiled in the process.
They did things to make a statement, a statement that said, ' I can do what I want and attribute
it to any cause or belief and the media will report it.. While this may have been an act of people
wanting to create a confrontation between India and Pakistan, all it was, was an act to create fear
among people. That is the objective of terrorism. To create fear. Terrorism is a tactic and you
cannot wage war against a tactic.

[BottomLine2008]

So you're saying we should give up?

This is what the right wing is talking about.

Fortunately, Obama doesn't reflect you.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

You wage war, in various ways, against the folks utilizing the tactics.

[provgrays]

When a new president has ambitious domestic plans, he is often overwhelmed by the foreign stage. It will be incredible if Obama can achieve the former and miraculous if he can balance that with the latter.

If anyone is up to this, it's him.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

He seems to have a lot of bandwidth.

[IthacaParent]

A thought-provoking post. Thanks.

To paraphrase the President-elect, the central front in the war on terrorism has been moved. The key future battlegrounds will not be in Iraq or Afghanistan; Al Q'aida wants Pakistan, and might possibly (5-20% likelihood??) succeed there.

Consider the operational security needed to involve 20-40 novice attackers, and perhaps 100 others in planning, intel and logistics, train them for months and not have any security leaks. Consider the consistent days-long discipline of the various decentralized teams. Their planners and trainers were not newbies.

The dramatic landing, clearly unnecessary tactically, serves the attackers only if they sought to 'create Pakistani complicity'. Like the preponderence of Saudi nationals among the 9/11 foot-soldiers, this apparently was central to their intended message.

Al Q'aida clearly seeks a sustainable lexus for their self-proclaimed Caliphat. Pakistan, with its 165 million people, long-standing religious strife, economic collapse, political instability and reportedly 60+ nuclear weapons and a long-standing biological weapons program, offers them unique potential. If Al Quada somehow did succeed in establishing a supportive front regime tthere, Saudi Arabia might well be their next focus.

What might the perpetrators do next to heighten India-Pakistan tensions and further isolate and destabilize the weak, new Pakistani government? Could they somehow make the pending IMF bailout politically unsupportable among IMF sponsors?

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

You're welcome.

You have an interesting theory. We'll see if it's correct.

[rivrgrrl]

Yup.

It's a mess out there as well as at home here (quite a bit of it created these past eight years).

Thank Gaia we finally have someone of competence, intelligence and the maturity needed to effectively deal with it all.

[Emmory]

Suuuuure we do...

[BottomLine2008]

Oh, a die hard Bushie. How quaint. lol

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I expect Obama to do well.

[nick53]

okay, so
1-it is insane to suggest these attacks were not genuine terrorist events (ie conspiracy theories etc), sorry :-)
2-'punk' talked about murder in america being a much more important and yet under-reported issue. Frankly, I'd say the opposite, murder is glorified in america, in "action" news reports, car chases and so on. No where else on earth does this culture exist..

Obama is gonna have a tough time indeed, that's for sure. russia will require tactfulness, thou i think it's beign dramatized a bit. But his record (www.spinwhip.com/obama) looks good, check it out. He's no cow-boy and that's good news :-)

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Yeah, that criticism gets into the area of 9/11 truther stuff.

[prcleburne]

President ( - elect ) Obama's response to all this :

http://punditkitchen.com/2008/09/05/political-pictures-barack-obama-chill-out-got-this/

[wezcoz]

Obama's Inauguration Day Poem, (click or copy/paste address) Go to:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57ZRYgX_F6Y



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[SaulZ]

"Virtually all signs are pointing to a major Pakistani connection in the attacks. The new head of Pakistan's dread ISI intelligence service will meet with Indian officials in a show of cooperation designed to fend off a major geopolitical crisis between India and Pakistan."

Just like all signs were pointing towards Iraq having WMDs?

How is that India had a terrorist attack on its parliament soon after 9/11 and again now. Two critical junctures in time to win sympathies of US government and establishment. Is it coincidental?

Also, please enlighten us on how a few terrorists were able to plan such a coordinated attack from Pakistan without the support of some elements from within Indian soil?

How is that one terrorist of such a well planned group turned out to be so dumb so as to be speaking a Pakistani dialect and claiming it to be from southern India?

[BottomLine2008]

Yup, it's a just a big CIA Zionist conspiracy like 9/11. Right? That's what you're saying.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

A. You distorted what I wrote.

B. Your analogy is inapt.

WMD was asserted. We never saw it.

The Mumbai attacks were very real, with many moving parts, and thousands of eyewitnesses, most of them far more close-up than they ever wanted to be in their lives, to the extent they came away with them, plus the world's media on hand.

[goldcoastsailor]

The assaults have shocked global elites? Really?

[punk]

I'm not shocked. America's murder crisis is far more significant. We have more homicides in the USA than does India. Unfortunately, our media will continue diverting Americans' eyes from the problems that TRULY hurt America.

[BottomLine2008]

What do you want to do about the "murder crisis?"

Abolish bad thoughts?

[Foreground]

Wait, what? Between India having an often extremely corrupt police force and the second largest population in the world (a bit over 3X America's) crammed into an area about a third the size of the USA, India's actually got the world's largest murder rate.

http://www.bt.com.bn/en/asia_news/2008/06/03/india_records_highest_number_of_murders_in_world

Though I suppose that the fact that its only double America's is a point in its favor considering its got 3X the population. O'course, that's reported murders, and as said above, the corrupt police force may mean its underreported.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Yes. And your point?

[hortonhearsawho]

History is never new.

[BottomLine2008]

Does that mean nothing new ever happens? I think not.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

We live in history. Unless you believe that what we experience is in the past, we experience the new all the time.

[BottomLine2008]

Exactly.

[Rudderman]

I clearly remember when Biden stated that Obama would be tested within the first six months of his presidency. The Right naturally boasted that this as a clear implication that Obama was incapable of handling a crises. I took it as a statement of the obvious regarding the planet's incendiary political climate. No offense Mr. Bradley, but your headline should have been directed at Bush. I wish people would stop acting like Obama is already seated behind Oval Office desk.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

"While Barack Obama promised "a new and brighter day yet to come" in his Thanksgiving address, seen in the video above, an old and darker day yet to leave reminds that events -- and perhaps political fate itself -- can turn on a dime in presidential politics."

[pm247]

We shouldn't just be fighting terrorism; religion itself has got to go. It is an oppressive remnant of the Dark Ages.

In the U.S. our supposed separation of church and state is a sham, since it is virtually impossible to win any election without obeisance to some religious authority. We could set an example for the world with a simple Constitutional amendment:

"No person holding or seeking elected office shall be affiliated with, or proclaim allegiance to, any church or religious organization. The strict separation of church and state shall not be abridged"

[hortonhearsawho]

what about separation of state and idiots...

[BottomLine2008]

Oh, Lord. Now there's an impractical program if I ever saw one.

>>>>We shouldn't just be fighting terrorism; religion itself has got to go. It is an oppressive remnant of the Dark Ages.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I'm afraid that's not going to happen.

[robeson]

I believe Obama already stated that the war of aggression on Iraq was a terrible mistake as al-Qaeda, Afghanistan, and Pakistan were ignored. This is no surprise to GW Bush critics.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I'm not following what you are commenting on.

[robeson]

"For Obama, the Mumbai attacks mean that we are on the verge of another major geopolitical crisis, with enormous implications for our already deeply troubled programs in Pakistan and Afghanistan."

I believe Obama sees the Mumbai attack as a result of GW's incompetence since 9-11. Therefore it's not another crisis but the same one that began on 9-11 and was ignored.

[idabamaho]

Mumbai is not an Obama crisis. It's business as usual in Bush world. As others have stated, Barack Obama is not the president yet. India is not our concern Pakistan is.