Syrian President Bashar al-Assad offered to host Russian offensive missiles as a sort of "counterweight" to the proposed US anti-missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Given how tentative Barack Obama is in discussing geopolitics, his running mate is unusually important. But there's some good news for Obama with regard to John McCain's New Cold War rhetoric. If he and his team can engage successfully with the Vietnam War hero.
It turns out that, according to a new poll, McCain's hot rhetoric in the wake of the Russia-Georgia War -- "We are all Georgians," which of course hasn't done a thing for Georgians -- isn't catching on. But McCain is still seen as the national security/geopolitics maven.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin's plans are working and there are some bad repercussions for US policy coming down the pike. After a visit to Moscow by Syria's president, Russia is getting a naval base in Syria. And sending a task force with an aircraft carrier and subs to the Mediterranean, all the better to bollix up US strategy in the Middle East.
And Kazakhstan, which is a major oil power not to be confused with the goofball land depicted in Borat, appears to be deciding to go with Russian pipelines for its product rather than a transnational project.
The New Cold War, much talked up on the far right, is a flop so far with American voters. While the polls all show John McCain to be the pick of most when it comes to national security issues, his not-so-new geopolitical issue isn't flying. I say not-so-new because McCain has long been perhaps the most anti-Russian of major American politicians. Even as he was giving a rather moderate and balanced major foreign policy address at Town Hall Los Angeles this past, spring, he was calling for the ouster of Russia from the G-8 group of eight advanced industrial nations. Which was never going to happen then, and is hardly likelier now, even in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Georgia. An invasion given its pretext by the boneheaded decision for Georgia to attack the capital of breakaway republic South Ossetia.
In any event, it turns out that we are not all Georgians.
Last week, McCain, a friend of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, the American-educated lawyer who employed McCain's chief foreign policy advisor as his Washington lobbyist, memorably declared: "We are all Georgians now."
Well, as Borat might say, not so much.
A new Rasmussen poll shows that John McCain's heated rhetoric on the Russia-Georgia War is not inspiring American intervention there. A whopping 59% of American voters do not want US troops sent to Georgia as peacekeepers. Only 22% favor that move.
Further, as the poll's owner, Republican Scott Rasmussen, puts it: "Despite the numerous Cold War references that have been made publicly in the past week, Americans still overwhelmingly do not regard Russia as an enemy. Fifteen percent (15%) say Russia is an enemy of the United States; 5% say it is an ally, and 76% rate the relationship as somewhere in between.
"A plurality of voters (48%) continue to believe that Republican presidential candidate John McCain is better able to deal with Russia, but 40% think Democrat Barack Obama is the more capable. Last week, 51% rated McCain as the best equipped to handle the crisis in Georgia, compared to 36% who believed that of Obama."
Meanwhile, Russia is according to several reports dispatching a naval task force to the Middle East, including an aircraft carrier, its guided missile cruiser flagship named for the Russian capital, and, rather ominously, several submarines.
The Admiral Kuznetsov, a Russian aircraft carrier, is to head from Murmansk to Syria along with a task force that includes the guided missile cruiser Moskva, recently seen in the Black Sea during the Russian war with Georgia.
And Syrian President Assad just made a two-day visit to Moscow. During which he sought more advanced anti-aircraft weapons systems and offensive missiles from Moscow and reportedly made an unconditional offer of a Russian naval base at the Syrian port of Tartus.
The US gets its long-negotiated future missile shield program in Poland. Poland being anxious to close the long-in-the-works deal so long as the US sets up a military garrison there, making it harder for Russia to attack. Russia gets a here-and-now naval presence in the Middle East.
Tit for tat. Or something like that.
If you're wondering, perhaps, why Russia is not coming under intense criticism from Western Europe and the rest of the vaunted NATO military alliance, think of energy. Russia is its leading supplier of natural gas, oil, and uranium.
And that power position may be increasing in the wake of the Georgian war.
Kazakhstan, one of the world's leading oil nations, situated in the formerly Soviet Central Asia, is reportedly moving away from a transnational pipeline project to the alternative of the Russian umbrella. "Changing the export route is in our agenda now," a high-ranking Kazakh official is quoted as saying yesterday.
Clearly, these matters go far beyond simplistic rhetoric.
Obama, for all his gifts, has not shown the facility or confidence to discuss these matters, as I discussed yesterday on New West Notes.
Obama's been letting John McCain have pretty much a free ride on geopolitics. Even though the geopolitics McCain is supporting now is awfully questionable.
Some numbskull gave Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili the greenlight to launch an offensive against South Ossetia. Which provided Russia with an eagerly sought pretext to shatter the Georgian military and tell the rest of the world that it's bad and it's back.
In the short run, this works for McCain, because he's the pithy war hero. But it doesn't have to. If Obama has the right running mate, he or she can explain, in a hardheaded realist way, how bad this can be for America.
It's actually not that hard to do. If you understand the issues, how they relate with one another, and are not shy about being cogently critical.
Obama isn't all that comfortable on the attack. Though I happen to believe he is far more of a Chicago-style gut fighter than he likes to let on. If he's going to win, he needs to unleash a running mate who will get up in John McCain's grill on what are supposed to be his issues.
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Poor "boneheads" using heavy artillery and tanks against what they claim are "their" citizens, lucky for them Obama/Biden are getting a billion dollars together to replace silly old Saakashvili'se tanks and rocket launchers nasty mean russian broke.
The Obama-Biden aid is not military aid.
I want to know why the citizens of the breakaway regions can't be treated like the citizens of Quebec, who have been given several chances by the Canadian government to choose independence through democratic means.
Why can't the government of Georgia give these people the chance to dissolve this dysfunctional relationship using democracy? There should be an internationally supervised referendum to give these people a chance to determine their own futures.
If a relationship doesn't work, you either have to take steps to HEAL the relationship, or accept the inevitability of a parting of the ways.
Saakashvili has done nothing to HEAL the relationship between the breakaway regions and Georgia proper. He has to be made to understand that you either heal a bad relationship or end it. And you don't heal the relationship by killing civilians.
This is a very good question.
Of course the answer is that Tbilisi does not want to see Georgia broken up.
Nor does the anti-Russia faction in the US that has been backstopping and building up Saakashvili.
Now, as a result of Saakashvili's foolish move, they have no choice in the matter.
May be a good question but yours isn't a good answer.
"...that Tbilisi does not want to see Georgia broken up....'
And why should they? Recall Lincoln and the Confederate States of America? Should Lincoln have called for a vote?
Why are these two regions looking to link up with Russia? Did the Soviet Union move Russians into these regions?
Quebec is no model as it was the French colony in the Western Hemisphere taken during a long world-wide war against France. Britain, nor their colonies had the population with which to flood Quebec and thin out the french influence.
In fact, the French aid to the 13 American colonies wasn't a noble experiment in freedom. Britain and France were at war again and the French hoped to drain off British troops to fight Washington. The Brits more said goodby to us than we won.
"If you understand the issues, how they relate with one another, and are not shy about being cogently critical.... Obama isn't all that comfortable on the attack. Though I happen to believe he is far more of a Chicago-style gut fighter than he likes to let on."
the problem with obama is in the other precondition you mentioned - one needs to understand to issues in order to be able to attack effectively. and obama doesn't understand them. neither does mccain, but because of his own ignorance obama can't see that, much less exploit it.
It may be that Obama understands, but does not yet have fluency.
What makes you think Obama doesn't understand?
He's been right about Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
You can certainly make that argument.
Obama hired a grill-get-up-inner today, August 23.
After the champagne, I think he'll be getting straight up in McCain's grill. And he'll stay there til Nov. 4.
Biden started getting up in McCain's grille at the DNC. But not as well as Obama himself, or Bill Clinton.
You've got video now!
Indeed. It's something that hasn't been seen in the West.
I like it.
ICING ON THE CAKE!
The day that (US/MIC) United States Military Industrial Complex places US Military Forces and Missiles into Poland, the targeting of Thermo-Nuclear Weapon upon NATO (EU) and other threats must be taken, and the location of The New Soviet Russia Air Wings into Cuba and Venezuela.
But, the cost to Israel for its part in the deaths of New Era Soviet Russian peacekeepers will be much higher. Israel sent advisors, trainers, working with Georgian military units down to battalion level. And Israeli Mossad Intelligence Agents and CIA working closely with the Pentagon operated important stations in Tbilisi. As Israeli arms dealers and businessmen quickly followed, reportedly selling some $200 million or more of military equipment to the Georgian government.
Seeing as The New Soviet Russia is one of the world leaders in weapons technology and arms dealing, the chickens have come home to roost as The New Soviet Russia will take retribution in the form of advance weaponry sales to Iran. Selling their best anti-aircraft systems in Iran, making it virtually invulnerable to attack from Israel or the US. And, let us not forget much closer problems to Israel then Iran, like Hamas and Hezbollah, the Arms Store is now open.
And, now New Soviet Russia is getting a naval base in Syria. And sending a task force with an aircraft carrier and subs to the Mediterranean, all the better to bollix up US strategy in the Middle East, its icing on the cake.
Actually, Israel cut a deal with Russia to stop selling arms to Georgia.
SPREADING THE ICING ON THE CAKE!
It"s a little hard to put the toothpaste back into the tube once its out, Israel making a deal after they shot themselves in the foot still doesn"t stop the bleeding. But, that's not the point is connecting the points of the new problem.
The Shi-ite Iranians Persians are building nuclear weapons, to place atop ballistic missiles, and while that is being done Soviet missiles, and Anti-Aircraft batteries are defending them. Now, if they do use the weapons and fire the direction of Israel, the (US/MIC) United States Military Complex Missile System in Poland and American Armed Forces in Poland will launch a counter launch, which now the New Soviet Russia could see as an attack upon the Motherland and launch a counter launch against the (US/MIC) missile sites in Poland.
Or, The Soviet Fleet with its carrier air wing in Shi-ite Syria, are providing (24/7) air cap coverage to its carrier with part of the air wing on land based Syrian airbases. That makes any further attacks by the Israeli Air Force against the Baca Valley a possible act of war, against New Soviet Russia. Are they attacking Syria or the Soviet Russian Fleet?
Plus the buffer American Forces in Iraq will no longer be there to act as a buffer between Shi-ite Persian Iran and Shi-ite Syria. It"s worse than Cold War One, were out of the Frying Pan an into the fire.
All righty.
I didn't feel like showing the Russian aircraft carrier.
You ought to show the Russian aircraft carrier.
Saakashvili was sacrificed so that Russia and the US could each get something they wanted: for Russia, two provinces of Georgia, and even more leverage over oil and gas supplies, and for the US, higher oil prices (probably, some day) and a chance to vent some moral indignation at Russia. (I assume the Russians were told ahead of time that it was all just theatre for the elections, and they could ignore it.) Plus, the US got to give more money to defence contractors for a missile system that will never work, and Russia got an excuse to point missiles at Poland. Everyone wins! Except the people who died, of course.
Saakashvili should come out supporting Obama, just out of spite.
Actually, the price of oil went DOWN during the Russia-Georgia War.
As I've already discussed.
As for the rest of the conspiracy, ah, no.
A lot of the neo-cons' plans have not worked out the way they wanted. They're not as good at this as the Russians.
Crude oil went down again today.
I thought I was into conspiracy theories! :)
Perhaps you are, just different ones.
Who do you think the "numbskull" was?
"Some numbskull gave Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili the greenlight to launch an offensive against South Ossetia. Which provided Russia with an eagerly sought pretext to shatter the Georgian military and tell the rest of the world that it's bad and it's back."
Posted August 22, 2008 | 05:12 PM (EST)